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China Real Estate Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3042106
  • November 2014
  • Region: China
  • 75 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Gemdale Corporation
  • Poly Real Estate Group
  • MORE

BMI View: Although we see Chinese economic growth slowing in the medium term, we are optimistic for the commercial property sector as a whole, as the maturing of the Chinese economy means that opportunities for new, premium developments remain plentiful. Reflecting this view, there is significant international interest in investing in Chinese commercial property.

We forecast a slowdown in Chinese economic growth, despite government stimulus measures, from 6.7% in 2015 and to under 6% by the end of our forecast period, in 2018. The government is treading a fine line between continuing with policies to stimulate investment with badly needed market reforms. The market is also being hit by a fall in residential real estate prices, with many predicting that the Chinese property bubble will burst. We do see prices continuing to fall, although in our view this will be more a correction than a crash, but it will undoubtedly have an impact on sentiment in the economy as a whole. However, in general we are optimistic regarding the commercial real estate sector, as demand remains strong and opportunities are plentiful.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Gemdale Corporation
  • Poly Real Estate Group
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

Office 15
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month) 16
Table: Forecast Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%) 16

Retail 17
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month) 18
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%) 18

Industrial 19
Table: Forecast Rental Costs, 2015-2016 (USD/sq m/month) 19
Table: Forecast Net Yields, 2011-2018 (%) 20

Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2012-2017) 21
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (China 2018-2023) 23

Macroeconomic Forecasts 33

Stimulus Effects Increasingly Short-Lived 34
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018) 38

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 39

Asia - Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: Asia - Real Estate Risk/Reward Index 39

China - Risk/Reward Index 40

Market Overview 42

Shanghai 43

Beijing 43

Wuhan 44

Shenzhen 44

Office 44
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 47
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114 47

Retail 47
Table: Historical Rental Costs, 2012-2014 (USD/sq m/month) 50
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%) 50
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114 51

Industrial 51
Table: Historic Rental Costs, 2013-2014 (USD/sq m/month) 53
Table: Historical Net Yields, 2013-2014 (%) 54
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H114 54

Competitive Landscape 55

Office 57

Retail 57

Industrial 58

Company Profile 59

China Merchants Property Development 59

Gemdale Corporation 61

Poly Real Estate Group 63

Shanghai Industrial Development 65

Demographic Forecast 67

Demographic Outlook 67
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 68
Table: China's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 69
Table: China's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 70
Table: China's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 70

Methodology 71

Industry Forecast Methodology 71

Sources 72

Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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China Merchants Property Development
Gemdale Corporation
Poly Real Estate Group
Shanghai Industrial Development

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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