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Libya Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3042334
  • November 2014
  • Region: Libya
  • 67 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: It is our belief that Libya finds itself in a troublesome predicament with strong rivalry existing between Islamist leaning factions and state security forces at both the political and military level. BMI views the Libyan crisis as a threat to wider regional stability where neighbouring countries concerned about security on their own borders are becoming increasingly involved. We think that the international community, with the United Nations at the forefront, needs to pressure the political actors to the negotiating table.

Our view is that with the rival establishment of government and parliament in Tripoli by the General National Congress up against the internationally recognised government and parliament to the east of the country, the country is becoming more and more divided. Given that we expect the fighting between Islamist leaning militia's and government backed armed forces led by General Khalif Haftar to be a long drawn out process, we think there is a need for greater pressure by the international community to call for negotiations and an immediate ceasefire. We think that if there are no greater calls for national dialogue, the fluidity of movement on the ground risks dragging in other neighbouring regional actors.

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BMI Industry View 7


Libya Security SWOT 9

Libya Defence SWOT 10

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

Defence Expenditure 14
Table: Defence Expenditure (Libya 2011-2018) 16
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Libya 2011-2018) 16

Armed Forces 16
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Libya 2004-2009) 17
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Libya 2011-2018) 17

Macroeconomic Forecasts 18

Economic Analysis 18
Table: Economic Activity (Libya 2009-2018) 22

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 23

Middle East And Africa Security Risk Index 23
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Risk Index 23
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24

Libya Security Risk Index 25

Market Overview 26

Libya Defence Market Overview 26

Armed Forces And Government Spending 26

Domestic Defence Industry 31

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 31

Arms Trade Overview 33

Libya Security Overview 34

Domestic Threats 34

Regional Threats 41

International Threats 42

Regional Overview 44

Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 44

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 44

Regional Power Dynamics 52

Nuclear Proliferation 55

External Powers 55

Global Industry Overview 58

Political Risk Analysis 58

Methodology 64

Industry Forecast Methodology 64

Sector-Specific Methodology 65

Sources 66

Security Risk Index Methodology 66
Table: Indicators And Weighting 67

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