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Japan Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3042373
  • November 2014
  • Region: Japan
  • 55 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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  • JFE Holdings
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BMI View: Weak economic growth will lead Japan's metals industry to see minimal growth to 2018. The country's construction and infrastructure industries will see declining growth by late-2015 after recent expansion, while automotive production will be modest over the coming years. Yet a weaker yen is likely to encourage exports, supporting stable production levels.

Japanese refined metal production and consumption will see minimal growth in the coming years on account of weakening economic fundamentals. Our outlook for Japanese economic growth remains below consensus, as we currently forecast real GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2015. However, recent monetary loosening may boost construction in the shorter term through subdued interest rates, and a weaker yen should support metal exports.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • JFE Holdings
  • Latest Results
  • Latest Results
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: Headwinds Remain, Yet Sector To Remain Global Leader 10

Japanese Steelmakers To Remain Global Leaders 13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Japan 2010-2018) 14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Japan 2005-2012) 14

Aluminium: Modest Tailwinds Though Growth To Remain Subdued 16

Recent Construction Growth To Fade 17
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Japan 2010-2018) 19

Copper: Production Growth To Outpace Consumption 19

Consumption Growth To Decline 20

Exports To Grow 21
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Japan 2010-2018) 22

Regulatory Development 23

Foreign Investors Face Roadblocks 23

Corruption Generally Minimal 23
Table: Japan - Political Outlook 24

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26

Ferrous Metals 26

Non-Ferrous Metals: 29

Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness 29

Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary 30

Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist 32

Zinc: No Sustained Gains 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 36

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 37
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 37

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 37

Long-Term Outlook 38

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 39

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 40

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 41

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 42

Risks To Price Forecast 42
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 43

Competitive Landscape 44

Country To Remain Global Leader In Steel 44
Table: Japan - Largest Listed Metal Companies 44

Company Profile 46

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal 46

Latest Results 47
Table: Nippon Steel - Top Customers 48
Table: Nippon Steel - Key Financial Data 48

JFE Holdings 50

Latest Results 52
Table: JFE Holdings - Supply Chain Analysis 52
Table: JFE Holdings - Financial Data 53

Methodology 55

Cross Checks 55

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Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal
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JFE Holdings
Latest Results

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