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United Kingdom Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3049923
  • December 2014
  • Region: United Kingdom, Great Britain
  • 49 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: After a strong year for the UK steel industry in both production and consumption in 2013, we are forecasting the recovery to remain on track, albeit at a slower pace going forward. In line with its European counterparts, the UK metals industry has been rocked by low profitability that has led to capacity reductions and disinvestment. However, the worst is probably over for the UK, as slightly stronger domestic demand and recent investment from international firms such as Sahaviriya Steel Industries and Tata Steel should arrest the decline in sector fortunes and ensure that the sector continues to accelerate through to the end of our forecast period in 2018.

Serving as a constant reminder that the recovery may be built upon fragile ground, however, monthly data for activity in the steel sector in the UK has been volatile during the first eight months of 2014. Indeed, after a strong start with 30.8% year-on-year growth in January, a 9.3% drop off in activity in April, and a sluggish recover since means that that month-on-month activity at the end of August (latest available data)
sits not much higher than where it stood eight months previously. Only a 11.7% improvement in production in August helped push overall ourput in the year-to-date back into positive territory.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: On The Path Of Growth Going Forward 11
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (United Kingdom 2010-2018) 14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (United Kingdom 2005-2012) 15

Commodities Forecast 16

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 16
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 16

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 16

Long-Term Outlook 17

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 18

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 19

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 20

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 21

Risks To Price Forecast 21
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 22

Commodity Strategy 22

Ferrous Metals 24

Non-Ferrous Metals: 27

Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip 27

Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds 28

Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead 30

Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 34

Competitive Landscape 36
Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers 37

Company Profile 40

Rio Tinto - Q115 40

Company Overview 42

Company Strategy 43

Latest Financial Results 44
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 46

Tata Steel Limited 47

Company Overview 48

Company Strategy 48

Methodology 49

Cross Checks 49

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Rio Tinto - Q115

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