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Netherlands Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3049924
  • December 2014
  • Region: Netherlands, Holland
  • 44 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: After back-to-back years of volatility in the Dutch metals sector, 2014 looks to have laid the foundation for a prolonged period of stability in terms of both production and consumption. This positive momentum in the sector is set to continue through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. BMI expects steel to continue to dominate the country's metals industry; however, we see no significant new investment in the sub-sector over the coming years. Tata Steel, the largest producer in the country, is facing up to an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with cheap steel and aluminium being exported from China. Nevertheless, opportunities remain in high-quality steel, of which the Netherlands is a key producer.

Long-Term Growth In Output

After posting a contraction in both production and consumption in 2012 and 2013, 2014 heralded a turnaround for the steel industry. We expect the year to close with output up 1.4% and consumption up 2.1% y-o-y. However, BMI cautions that monthly data for steel production in the Netherlands suggests that a strong close to the year will be necessary for such estimates to become a reality. Over the first eight months of the year (correct to data published for August) output rose for five months and contracted for three. Although this leaves the market sat below where it started in 2014, we still maintain our year-end estimates.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 10

Metals SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 12

Steel: Growth To Head Higher 12
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Netherlands 2010-2018) 15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Netherlands 2005-2012) 15

Regulatory Development 16
Table: The Netherlands - Political Overview 16

Commodities Forecast 18

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 18
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 18

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 18

Long-Term Outlook 19

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 20

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 21

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 22

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 23

Risks To Price Forecast 23
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 24

Commodity Strategy 24

Ferrous Metals 26

Non-Ferrous Metals: 29

Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip 29

Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds 30

Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead 32

Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 36

Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Largest Listed European Metals Producers 39

Company Profile 42

Tata Steel Limited 42

Company Overview 43

Company Strategy 43

Methodology 44

Cross Checks 44

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Tata Steel Limited

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