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Sweden Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3057856
  • December 2014
  • Region: Sweden
  • 46 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: The recent financial results reported by Sweden's largest steel producer, SSAB, are further evidence of an improving operating environment. After six consecutive quarters of negative results, the company returned to profitability in the first quarter of 2014 and has since shown further improvement in terms of its financial performance. The producer reported sales of SEK13.31bn (USD1.81bn) in Q314, up from SEK8.7bn (USD) in Q313. The firm posted operating profit, excluding items affecting comparability,
of SEK510mn (USD69.31mn), operating cash flow of SEK77mn (USD10.46mn) and EBITDA of SEK1.25bn
(USD169.86mn) in the reported quarter.

The recovery in SSAB's financial performance chimes with the stabilisation in Sweden's overall steel production volumes following the significant fluctuation in output seen in recent years. After contracting by 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012, output grew by 1.8% in 2013 and growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.8% in 2008. While the sector looks to have turned a corner, we caution that producers will continue to adopt cautious strategies over the coming months as they look for signs of a sustainable recovery in demand. Indeed, the country's steel exports contracted sharply in both 2012 and 2013, falling by 20% and 18% respectively.

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BMI Industry View 5

SWOT 7

Metals SWOT 7

Industry Forecast 9

Steel: Consolidating The Recovery 9
Table: Sweden - Steel Production & Consumption 13
Table: Sweden - Steel Industry Historical Data 13

Regulatory Development 14

Commodities Forecast 16

Monthly Metals Strategy 16

Ferrous Metals 16

Non-Ferrous Metals 19
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 26

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 27
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 27

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 27

Long-Term Outlook 28

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 29

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 30

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 31

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 32

Risks To Price Forecast 32
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 33

Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Main Steel Producers In Sweden 35
Table: European Steelmakers By Market Cap 35

Company Profile 39

RUSAL 39

Latest Results 43
Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis 44
Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data 44

Methodology 46

Cross Checks 46

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RUSAL
Latest Results

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