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Italy Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3057858
  • December 2014
  • Region: Italy
  • 43 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: The outlook for Italy's metals sector is improving but still remains far from encouraging. This is thanks to a combination of cheap Chinese imports, low domestic demand, and few project expansions,
meaning that growth in consumption and production will be sluggish over the period to 2018. However, we expect Italy to retain its position as the EU's second largest steelmaking country over this time period, with a 16% share of production and the status of a net producer. After two consecutive years of contraction in the steel sector in terms of both consumption and production from 2012-2013, we are estimating a turnaround in fortunes in 2014, with output set to rise by 1.5% y-o-y to close the year at 24,441,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, we are estimating consumption to rise by 1.4% in 2014 to reach 23,367,000 tonnes.

Looking further ahead, we expect both production and consumption to enjoy uninterrupted y-o-y growth throughout the remainder of BMI's forecast period in 2018. We do expect the speed at which both consumption and production grow to slow during this period, however. By the close of 2018 BMI is forecasting production to reach 25,585,000 tonnes (significantly READ MORE >

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 11

Metals SWOT 11

Industry Forecast 13

Steel: Few Positive Signs As Production Flatlines 13

Production: Plethora Of Issues To Deter Growth 15

Some Respite For Margins 15

Consumption: Muted Growth As Economy Flatlines 16
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Italy 2010-2018) 17
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Italy 2005-2012) 18

Commodities Forecast 19

Commodity Strategy 19

Ferrous Metals 19

Non-Ferrous Metals 21

Aluminium: Sustained Break Unlikely 21

Copper: Prices To Decline Further By 2015 22

Nickel: Increase From Current Lows, But No Return To H114 Highs 24

Zinc: Tighter Supplies To Be Offset By Subdued Demand 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 27

Commodities Forecast 28
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 28

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 28

Long-Term Outlook 29

Production Growth Set For Slowdown 30

Consumption Growth To Disappoint 31

Downside Risks To Price Outlook 32
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 33

Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metals Producers 35

Company Profile 38

Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q1 2015 38

Company Strategy 40

Latest Results 41
Table: Alcoa - Supply Chain Analysis 41

Company Details 42

Methodology 43

Cross Checks 43

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