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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3058411
  • December 2014
  • Region: Iraq
  • 62 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI expects the Iraqi defence budget to be worth USD25.7bn in 2015, which is a significant increase on the USD22.2bn expected by the end of 2014. Despite a slight improvement in the domestic situation on the previous quarter, as a result of international support to shore up the government and the security forces,
BMI expects Iraq to be plagued with governance and security difficulties for the foreseeable future.

We have given Iraq an overall security risk rating of 27 for Q115. To us, it seems evident that Iraq's greatest security risk is terrorism, both domestic and international, leaving it with a score of mere 16 out of 100 for Q115. That said, we think that the country is also affected by wider interstate tensions occurring across the Middle East and that its weak governance and security architecture leaves the domestic scene vulnerable to the power play politics of external actors, Notably Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the U.S.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT Analysis 9

Iraq Security SWOT 9

Iraq Defence & Security SWOT 11

Political 13

Economic 14

Business Environment 15

Industry Forecast 16

Defence Trade 16

Defence Expenditure 16
Table: Defence Expenditure 17

Armed Forces 18
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 19
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2018 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) 19

Macroeconomic Forecasts 20
Table: Economic Activity (Iraq 2009-2018) 24

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25

Middle East And Africa Security Risk Index 25
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Risk Index 25
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 26

Iraq Security Risk Index 27

Market Overview 28

Iraq Defence Market Overview 28

Armed Forces 28

Industry Trends And Developments 33

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 35

Arms Trade Overview 36

Iraq Security Overview 36

Domestic Threats 36

Regional Threats 38

International Threats 38

Regional Overview 39

Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 39

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 39

Regional Power Dynamics 47

Nuclear Proliferation 50

External Powers 50

Global Industry Overview 53

Political Risk Analysis 53

Methodology 59

Industry Forecast Methodology 59

Sector-Specific Methodology 60

Sources 61

Security Risk Index Methodology 61
Table: Indicators And Weighting 62

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