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Syria Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3071208
  • January 2015
  • Region: Syria
  • 78 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: Syria remains embroiled in a full-scale civil war. Without any viable political process and in view of the number of armed groups operating in Syria, BMI does not foresee any let up in the violence soon. Our view is that while the anti-Islamic State coalition has made some strides, the long term effectiveness of this coalition to bring stability to Syria seems rather questionable.

Although the air-strikes carried out by the U.S. led anti-Islamic State coalition have hurt the group hard, we think that their long-term effectiveness is questionable without a longer term strategy on how to remove Assad and bring about a political transition. Without defining a clearer strategy to remove Assad, we think that the U.S. is leaving itself in a dangerous position

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Syria Security SWOT 9

Syria Defence & Security SWOT 10

Political 11

Economic 12

Business Environment 13

Industry Forecast 14

Defence Expenditure 14
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2012-2019) 14
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Syria 2012-2019) 17

Armed Forces 17
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Syria 2004-2011) 17
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Syria 2012-2019) 18

Defence Exports And Imports 18
Table: Defence Exports (Syria 2012-2019) 19
Table: Defence Imports (Syria 2012-2019) 19

Macroeconomic Forecasts 20

Economic Analysis 20
Table: Economic Activity (Syria 2009-2018) 25

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 26

Middle East And Africa Security Risk Index 26
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Risk Index 26
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 27

Syria Security Risk Ratings 28

Market Overview 29

Syria Defence Market Overview 29

Arms Trade Overview 29

Armed Forces And Government Spending 30

Defence Modernisation 37

International Deployment & Joint Exercises 38

Domestic Defence Industries 38

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 38

Syria Security Overview 41

Domestic Threats 41

Regional Threats 50

International Threats 53

Regional Overview 55

Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 55

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 55

Regional Power Dynamics 63

Nuclear Proliferation 66

External Powers 66

Global Industry Overview 69

Global Political Outlook 69

Methodology 75

Industry Forecast Methodology 75

Sector-Specific Methodology 76

Sources 77

Security Risk Index Methodology 77
Table: Indicators And Weighting 78

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