Brazil Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3071303
  • January 2015
  • Region: Brazil
  • 56 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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  • Cia Siderúrgica Nacional
  • Gerdau
  • Latest Financial Results
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BMI View: Metals production and consumption in Brazil will remain vulnerable heading into 2015 on account of persistently high energy costs and weak economic growth. However, accelerating growth in the years ahead, driven by gains in the automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors, will underpin expansion in the metals sector.

Stronger Outlook By Latter Half Of Decade

Metals consumption and production will face headwinds into 2015 on account of modest economic growth
(see 'Growth To Disappoint Again In 2015,' November 5). We forecast real GDP growth of just 1.0% in 2015 on the back of sluggish private consumption, subdued fixed asset investment, and a weak business environment. Moreover, electricity costs remain elevated, raising costs for the energy-intensive metals industry. Nevertheless, our multi-year outlook towards Brazilian economic growth, as well as key sectors, is more constructive. The automotive, construction, and infrastructure sectors will see expansion in the years ahead, driving metals demand and hence production, by the latter half of the decade. Additionally, we expect refined copper production and consumption to outperform other metals on account of the metal's widespread usage in multiple sectors and continued investment in productive capacity from Paranapanema, the country's largest producer.

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  • Cia Siderúrgica Nacional
  • Gerdau
  • Latest Financial Results
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

Stronger Outlook By Latter Half Of Decade 7


Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Weak 2015 To Give Way To Stronger Growth 11

Consumption Facing Weak 2015 11

Production Surpluses Ahead 13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Brazil 2005-2013) 14

Aluminium: Demand To Outpace Production 15

Constrained Production On High Electricity Costs 15

Demand Fundamentals Stronger Than Supply Outlook 17
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Brazil 2010-2018) 19

Copper: Growth To Come Following Weak 2014 20

Consumption To Outpace Production 21
Table: Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance (Brazil 2010-2018) 21

Regulatory Development 22

Tax Regime 22

Government Steadily Tackling Persistent Corruption 23
Table: Brazil - Political Overview 23

Commodities Forecast 25
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 25

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 25

Long-Term Outlook 26

Production Growth Set For Slowdown 27

Consumption Growth To Disappoint 28

Downside Risks To Price Outlook 29
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 30

Commodity Strategy 31

Ferrous Metals 31

Non-Ferrous Metals 33

Aluminium: Ending 2014 On A Whimper 33

Copper: More Weakness Ahead 35

Nickel: Modest Rebound To Be Limited By Ample Supply 37

Zinc: Sideways Trading On Diverging Supply & Demand Dynamics 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 39

Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In Brazil 41

Energy Costs Top Headwind 41

Company Profile 43

Gerdau 43

Latest Financial Results 45
Table: Gerdau - Key Financial Data 45

Cia Siderúrgica Nacional 46

Latest Financial Results 48
Table: CSN - Key Financial Data 48

Global Company Strategy - Vale - Q1 2015 49

Company Overview 51

Company Strategy 52

Latest Results 53
Table: Vale - Supply Chain Analysis 54
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 54

Company Details 55

Methodology 56

Cross Checks 56

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Latest Financial Results
Cia Siderúrgica Nacional

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Our Clients

  • Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
  • Teck Resources Limited
  • BHP Billiton Ltd.
  • Minerals Technologies Inc.
  • Omya AG
  • Imerys S.A.