Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3086416
  • January 2015
  • Region: Japan
  • 84 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: Landmark constitutional changes in 2014 will continue to have a significant impact on Japan's defence policy and role in regional and international security in 2015. Key reforms to Article 9 of the constitution have opened the doors to the international market for Japanese defence firms, who can now export defence systems and cooperate on joint ventures with international partners. In addition, these constitutional changes have edged Japan towards military normalisation, paving the way for a more active role in regional security. To make these amendments actionable, the Ministry of Defence has requested a record 3.5% budget increase, which will be used to fund major new acquisitions in maritime and air security.

Following a decade of defence cuts, the Ministry is seeking its third successive defence budget increase in 2015. Military expenditure will increase to USD42.3bn for FY2015, starting April next year. The additional funding would be earmarked for the purchase of 20 maritime patrol aircrafts, six stealth fighters, five tiltrotator aircrafts, and three unmanned aerial vehicles, which is part of a wider five-year spending plan. Japan will build a Dynamic Joint Defence Force, which emphasises both soft and hard aspects of readiness,
sustainability, resiliency and connectivity, reinforced by advanced technology and capability.

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BMI Industry View 7


Japan Security SWOT 9

Japan Defence & Security SWOT 12

Political 14

Economic 15

Industry Forecast 16

Defence Budget 16
Table: Defence Expenditure (Japan 2012-2019) 17

Armed Forces 19
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Japan 2005-2012) 20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Japan 2012-2019) 23

Defence Sector Production 23
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Japan 2012-2019) 26
Table: Defence Imports (Japan 2012-2019) 27
Table: Defence Exports (Japan 2012-2019) 28

Macroeconomic Forecasts 30

Economic Analysis 30
Table: Economic Activity (Japan 2009-2018) 32

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33

Developed States Security Risk Index 33
Table: Developed States Security Risk Index 33
Table: Developed States State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34

Japan Security Risk Reward Index 35

Market Overview 37

Japan Defence Market Overview 37

Armed Forces 37

Imports 42

Exports 45
Table: Defence Research And Development (R&D) As % Of Government R&D Budget, Selected Developed States 46

Japan Security Overview 47

Domestic Threats 47

Regional Threats 47

International Threats 51

Company Profile 52

Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI) 52

Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI) 53

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) 54

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) 56

Regional Overview 58

North East Asia Security Overview 58

The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia 58

Flashpoints And Fault Lines In North East Asia 59

The Evolution Of North East Asia 67

Global Industry Overview 70

Global Political Outlook 70

Demographic Forecast 76
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Japan 1990-2025) 77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Japan 1990-2025) 77
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Japan 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group (Japan 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Japan 1990-2025) 79

Methodology 81

Industry Forecast Methodology 81

Sector-Specific Methodology 82

Sources 83

Security Risk Index Methodology 83
Table: Indicators And Weighting 84

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Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI)
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI)
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)

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