The CNS Market Outlook to 2010
Scripp Business Insights, October 2005
Maximize future market opportunity with the help of this NEW report...
The traditional markets of depression and schizophrenia will see further product launches in the next few years, however many of the major players are set to perform disappointingly in these traditional markets due to increasing pricing pressure from generic competition and limited differentiation among new medicines.
The new report 'The CNS Market Outlook to 2010' provides detailed analysis on 7 key indications in the CNS Market, identifying growth brands, leading companies and epidemiology and product sales forecasts over the period 2005-2010. The 6-year forecasts detailed in this report will enable you to evaluate changes in the competitive positions of leading companies in the CNS market and ensure your R&D pipeline is aligned with future market opportunity to sustain revenue growth.
This report will enable you to benchmark the strategies behind the market-leading products of today and identify which products will be best positioned for growth over the period 2005-2010.
Key statistics and analysis detailed in this report:
- Company analysis and market share of the top players in the CNS market including:
- Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, GlaxoSmithKline, Wyeth, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi-Aventis
- Epidemiological analysis and forecasts in 7 key indications in the CNS market: Alzheimer's disease, depression, epilepsy, migraine, pain, Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia
- Detailed analysis and sales forecasts of high potential products in the pipelines of the major players
The answers to your questions
- What will be the major growth indications in the CNS market over the period 2005-2010?
- Which companies were the winners and losers in the CNS market in 2004?
- How have recent major launches from Pfizer, Forest, Lilly and Bristol-Myers Squibb performed?
- Which products will be impacted by generic competitors over the period 2005-2010?
- Which pipeline products will be the growth drivers of the future and why?
- What will the competitive landscape in depression, schizophrenia, epilepsy, migraine, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimers disease and pain look like in 2010?
Why you should order your copy today
- Save time and money in research with the report's coverage of the 7 largest indications in the CNS market, the 7 largest geographic pharmaceutical markets and the 8 largest companies active in the CNS market today.
- Understand now how recent events are affecting the performance of major products, and how their marketers are confronting competitive changes in CNS marketplace.
- Discover which CNS indications have the greatest potential to provide franchise growth, and how the pharmaceutical industry is attempting to exploit these opportunities.
- Compare the franchises of key players in the CNS market across major indications, and understand how the market share of leading companies will change over the next 6 years.
- Use head-to-head comparisons of the CNS pipelines of the leading players to understand which companies will be competing in the key CNS indications over the next 6 years.
Companies mentioned:
- Johnson & Johnson
- Pfizer
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Lilly
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Wyeth
- AstraZeneca
- Forest Labs
Executive Summary
Patient potential
Global market analysis
Leading players in the CNS market
Analysis of potential future CNS blockbusters
Chapter 1 Patient potential
Summary
Introduction
Alzheimer's disease
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Depression
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Epilepsy
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Migraine
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Pain
Background
Neuropathic lower back pain
Cancer pain
HIV related pain
Neuralgia/fibromyalgia
Arthritic pain
Post-operative pain
Diabetic neuropathic pain
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Parkinson's disease
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Schizophrenia
Background
Prevalence
Forecast prevalence
Chapter 2 Global market analysis
Summary
Introduction
Alzheimer's disease
Introduction
Analysis of the leading Alzheimer's disease treatments
Market analysis by drug class
Cholinesterase inhibitors
NMDA antagonists
Depression
Introduction
Analysis of the leading anti-depressants
Market analysis by drug class
Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors
Serotonin Norepinephrin Reuptake Inhibitors
Others
Epilepsy
Introduction
Analysis of the leading epilepsy treatments
Market analysis by drug class
Traditional anti-convulsants
Second generation anti-convulsants
Migraine
Introduction
Analysis of the leading migraine treatments
Market analysis by drug class
Triptans
Pain
Introduction
Analysis of the leading pain treatments
Market analysis by drug class
Narcotics
Non-narcotics
Parkinson's Disease
Introduction
Analysis of the leading Parkinson's disease treatments
Market analysis
COMT inhibitors
Dopaminergics
Dopamine agonists
Schizophrenia
Introduction
Analysis of the leading anti-psychotics
Market analysis by drug class
Typical anti-psychotics
Atypical Anti-psychotics
CNS market forecasts
Chapter 3 Leading players in the CNS market
Summary
Introduction
Global market shares
J&J
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Pfizer
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
GSK
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Lilly
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Sanofi-Aventis
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Wyeth
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
AstraZeneca
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Forest Labs
Marketed products
R&D compounds
CNS portfolio sales forecasts
Chapter 4 Analysis of potential future CNS blockbusters
Summary
Introduction
Drug profiles
Cymbalta (duloxetine)
Lyrica (pregabalin)
Symbyax (olanzapine/fluoxetine)
indiplon
Transfenta (fentanyl)
DVS-233 (desvenlafaxine)
Xaprila (xaliproden)
asenapine
bifeprunox
saredutant
paliperidone
Chapter 5 Appendix
IMS sales figures
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Estimated prevalence of pain by indication in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2004
Figure 2.2: Competitive dynamics in the Alzheimer's disease market, 2004
Figure 2.3: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the Alzheimer's disease market, 2004
Figure 2.4: Competitive dynamics in the depression market, 2004
Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics in the depression market, 2004
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics in the epilepsy market, 2004
Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the epilepsy market, 2004 85
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the migraine market, 2004
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics in the pain market, 2004
Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the pain market, 2004
Figure 2.11: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the Parkinson's disease market, 2004
Figure 2.12: Competitive dynamics of the global anti-psychotics market by drug class, 2003–04
Figure 2.13: Competitive dynamics of the global anti-psychotics market by leading brands, 2003–04
Figure 3.14: Key players in the global CNS market, 2000 and 2004
Figure 4.15: Leading drugs in development, 2005
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.2: Forecast prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.3: Estimated prevalence of MDD in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.4: Forecast prevalence of MDD in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.5: Estimated prevalence of epilepsy in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.6: Forecast prevalence of epilepsy in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.7: Estimated prevalence of migraine in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.8: Forecast prevalence of migraine in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.9: Estimated prevalence of pain in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.10: Forecast prevalence of pain in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.11: Estimated prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.12: Forecast prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 1.13: Estimated prevalence of schizophrenia in the 7 major markets, 2004
Table 1.14: Forecast prevalence of schizophrenia in the 7 major markets, 2005-10
Table 2.15: Breakdown of the global Alzheimer's disease market by drug class, 2003-04
Table 2.16: Breakdown of the global Alzheimer's disease market by leading brands, 2003-04
Table 2.17: Breakdown of the global anti-depressants and mood stabilizers market by drug class, 2003–04
Table 2.18: Breakdown of the global anti-depressants market by leading brands, 2003–04
Table 2.19: Breakdown of the global epilepsy market by drug class, 2003-04
Table 2.20: Breakdown of the global epilepsy market by leading brands, 2003-04
Table 2.21: Breakdown of the global migraine market by drug class, 2003-04
Table 2.22: Breakdown of the global migraine market by leading brands, 2003-04
Table 2.23: Breakdown of the global pain market by drug class, 2003-04
Table 2.24: Breakdown of the global pain market by leading brands, 2003-04
Table 2.25: Breakdown of the global Parkinson's disease market by drug class, 2003-04
Table 2.26: Breakdown of the global Parkinson's disease market by leading brands, 2003-04
Table 2.27: Breakdown of the global anti-psychotics market by drug class, 2003–04
Table 2.28: Breakdown of the global anti-psychotics market by drug class, 2003–04
Table 2.29: Forecast global sales for major CNS indications, 2004-10
Table 3.30: Key players in the global CNS market, 2004
Table 3.31: J&J's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.32: J&J's CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
Table 3.33: Forecast sales for J&J's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.34: Pfizer's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.35: Pfizer's CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
Table 3.36: Forecast sales for Pfizer's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.37: GSK's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.38: GSK's CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
Table 3.39: Forecast sales for GSK's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.40: Lilly's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.41: Lilly's CNS R&D pipeline, 2005
Table 3.42: Forecast sales for Lilly's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.43: Sanofi-Aventis' marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.44: Sanofi-Aventis' CNS R&D pipeline, 2004
Table 3.45: Forecast sales for Sanofi-Aventis' CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.46: Wyeth's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.47: Wyeth's CNS R&D pipeline, 2004
Table 3.48: Forecast sales for Wyeth's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.49: AstraZeneca's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004
Table 3.50: AstraZeneca's CNS R&D pipeline, 2004
Table 3.51: Forecast sales for AstraZeneca's CNS portfolio, 2004–10
Table 3.52: Forest's marketed CNS portfolio, 2004 1
Table 3.53: Forest's CNS R&D pipeline, 2004
Table 3.54: Forecast sales for Forest's CNS portfolio ($m), 2004–10
Key findings of the report
Alzheimer's disease is forecast to become the fastest growing indication in the CNS market over the period 2004-2010, with sales forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.8%. The arrival of a new class of drugs in the US market and the implementation of successful strategies to protect existing revenues has positive implications for all companies in the market.
Although major players in the CNS market are forecast to launch a high number of products over the next 6 years, the majority of new launches are forecast to be less innovative, in areas with diminished therapeutic need, thus increasing the competitiveness of markets such as depression, pain, epilepsy and schizophrenia.
Of the eight largest players in the CNS market it is forecast that the winning CNS pipelines over the next 6 years will be those of Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Wyeth and Johnson & Johnson, while sales from the pipelines of GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca, Lilly and Forest will fall behind those of their rivals.
Pain and epilepsy are forecast to become fiercely competitive indications, as heavier genericization sets in. The ability of the major players to protect their sales from generics and ensure continuity of revenues is paramount to success.
Chapter 2: Global market analysis - Pain
Market analysis by drug class
Narcotics are indicated for the treatment of chronic pain in cancer patients and patients that have experienced physical trauma/injury or have undergone surgery. The largest proportion of market share is reserved for those products that provide full agonist activity. Such products can be used over chronic durations of time as their dose response does not typically deteriorate as quickly as those drugs that are only partial agonists. Dependency remains the most important side effect of therapy with narcotics, and cessation of therapy can result in withdrawal symptoms even in patients that do not exhibit dependency. Withdrawal symptoms can be severe in patients, particularly those that are on chronic pain medication, and can be associated with a number of other CNS disorders such as insomnia, depression and anxiety.
Leading brand dynamics
J&J's Duragesic (fentanyl transdermal patch) further consolidated its leadership position in the pain market in 2004, with sales of $2,214m, 29.2% up on 2003 sales of $1,714m. Duragesic's key competitive advantages are the product's ease of administration via a transdermal patch (co-developed with Alza (now part of J&J)) that is applied to the skin, and the efficacy that the product provides for severe chronic pain sufferers, as well as its benefits in abrupt cessation of therapy versus treatments such as Oxycontin.
Dependency aside, Duragesic's key clinical weakness is the high incidence of respiratory depression, which is itself associated with a high risk of mortality. Due to this high incidence of respiratory depression, Duragesic is a product that is typically used as last-line therapy in patients that have responded successfully to high dose therapy with other narcotic treatments, but is contraindicated for use in patients that are naïve to narcotic therapy. Generic competition represents the most potent threat to Duragesic's future potential, with several generic versions currently available. Thus far Duragesic has proven relatively impervious to generic competition as generics have been launched primarily in emerging markets. Mylan's January 2005 launch of transdermal fentanyl is likely to change this position, although entry is expected to be difficult for many generics companies due to the barrier of reformulation as well as the considerable brand that J&J has built for the product. Supply is likely to be an initial difficulty for generics companies and therefore the loss of revenues to generic competition is expected to gain momentum over the medium-term.
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