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Motor Finance Market Assessment 2005


Description: This report focuses on car purchases by private buyers. The market is divided into two main sectors — the new and used car markets — and four main types of lender: finance companies, manufacturers, subprime lenders and aggregators. Various types of finance are available to car buyers: personal loans, hire purchase (HP) and personal contract plans (PCPs). The right option depends on individual circumstances, and the market is increasingly competitive.

The motor finance market enjoyed strong growth between 2000 and 2004. The UK's strong economic background and price falls that have boosted the affordability of cars have supported sales of cars. Growth in the motor finance industry has been helped by declining borrowing costs and an increasingly competitive industry, which results in lower borrowing costs for consumers. However, considerable changes are being experienced. Direct lenders are entering the market aggressively, consumers are tending towards cash purchases and distribution channels are diversifying.

HP remains the main method by which consumers purchase new cars, while the proportion accounted for by personal loans continues to dwindle. PCPs appear to have reached a plateau after experiencing significant growth in the 1990s. Equity withdrawal is also now one of the main ways in which homeowners financed new car purchases between 2000 and 2004, although it is impossible to put an exact figure on how much consumers have spent on new cars by borrowing against their homes.

The motor finance market in the UK is highly competitive and no single player dominates. Consumers are able to arrange their finance through a plethora of companies, ranging from the high-street banks and building societies, to independent finance companies, credit unions and car companies' affiliated finance arms. Many of the high-street supermarkets, including Tesco and Sainsbury's, also offer personal loans.

The overall demand for new and used cars is expected to slow significantly between 2005 and 2009, with new car sales falling in 2005 and 2006. We do not expect the market to recover significantly until 2008. This reflects the likelihood that UK consumers will experience much tougher economic conditions over the next 5 years. Consumers have built up very large debts since 2000 and rising interest rates in 2004 and increasing unemployment in 2005 appear to have convinced many people to start paying off old debts rather than acquire new ones. Inevitably, this background will affect the market for motor finance and we expect the market to contract in 2005 and 2006.


Contents: Executive Summary

1. Introduction

BACKGROUND

OBJECTIVES

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITION
Personal Loans
Hire Purchase
Personal Contract Plans
Cash

2. Strategic Overview

MARKET DYNAMICS AND SEGMENTATION

Market Drivers
New and Used Car Sales
Table 1: New Car and Commercial Vehicle Registrations in the UK by Volume, 2000-2004
Figure 1: New Car and Commercial Vehicle Registrations in the UK by Volume, 2000-2004
Table 2: The Apparent UK Market for Motor Vehicles and Components by Sector by Value (£m at msp), 2000-2004
Car Prices
The Current Status of the Market
Total Industry Value and Growth
Table 3: New Business for Motor Finance in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004
Figure 2: New Business for Motor Finance in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004
Table 4: New Business for Motor Finance for New Cars by Method of Purchase by Value (£m and %), 2000-2004
Table 5: New Business for Motor Finance for Used Cars by Method of Purchase by Value (£m and %), 2000-2004
The Largest Sector
The Sector with the Highest Growth Rate
The Sector with the Lowest Growth Rate
The Smallest Sector

DISTRIBUTION

Regional Distribution
Table 6: Breakdown of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Motor Trade by Region (number and %), 2004

COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE

Finance Companies
Table 7: Total Lending to Individuals (£m), 2000-2004
Manufacturers
Subprime Lenders
Aggregators

FRAUD AND MONEY LAUNDERING

ADVERTISING

THE CONSUMER
Who is the Consumer?
Table 8: Number of Cars Licensed in the UK (000), 2000-2004
Table 9: Age of Only or Most Recently Purchased Car (% of households), 2004
Factors Affecting the Consumer
Gross Domestic Product
Table 10: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Chain-Linked Prices (£m), 2000-2004
Unemployment
Table 11: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons (million), 2000-2004
Household Disposable Income
Table 12: Household Disposable Income per Capita (£), 2000-2004
Inflation
Table 13: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2000-2004
Equity Withdrawal
Table 14: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in the UK (£m and %), 2000-2004 and Quarter 1 2005

MARKET FORECASTS
Table 15: Forecast New Business for Motor Finance by Value (£m), 2005-2009

3. New Cars

BACKGROUND
Table 16: UK New Car Registrations by Volume (000), 2000-2004

MARKET SIZE
Table 17: New Business for Motor Finance for New Cars in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004

MAJOR SUPPLIERS
Manufacturers
Table 18: Selected Leading UK-Registered Motor-Vehicle Manufacturers by Turnover and Pre-Tax Profit (£m), 2003/2004
Table 19: New Car Registrations in the UK by Manufacturer (number and %), 2003 and 2004
Car Models
Table 20: The Top Ten Car Models in the UK by New Registrations (number and %), 2004

MARKETING ACTIVITY

ADVERTISING
Table 21: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Motor Manufacturers (£000), Years Ending March 2004 and 2005

DISTRIBUTION
Table 22: Selected Leading UK-Registered Motor Dealerships by Turnover and Pre-Tax Profit (£m), 2003/2004

4. Used Cars

BACKGROUND

MARKET SIZE
Table 23: New Business for Motor Finance for Used Cars in the UK by Value (£m and %), 2000-2004

DISTRIBUTION

5. Personal Loans

BACKGROUND

MARKET SIZE
Table 24: Personal Loans to Finance New-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004
Table 25: Personal Loans to Finance Used-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004

MARKET SHARE
Table 26: Typical Offerings for Unsecured Loans (% and £), August 2005

CONSUMER TRENDS

ADVERTISING
Table 27: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Secured Personal Loans (£000), Years Ending March 2004 and 2005
Table 28: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Unsecured Personal Loans (£000), Years Ending March 2004 and 2005

DISTRIBUTION

INSURANCE

6. Hire Purchase

BACKGROUND

MARKET SIZE
Table 29: Hire Purchase to Finance New-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004
Table 30: Hire Purchase to Finance Used-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004

CONSUMER TRENDS

MARKETING ACTIVITY

DISTRIBUTION

7. Personal Contract Plans

BACKGROUND

MARKET SIZE
Table 31: Personal Contract Plans to Finance New-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004
Table 32: Personal Contract Plans to Finance Used-Car Purchases in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2004

CONSUMER TRENDS

MARKETING ACTIVITY

ADVERTISING
Table 33: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Personal Contract Plans (£000), Years Ending March 2004 and 2005

DISTRIBUTION

8. An International Perspective

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
The Global Car Industry
Table 34: Global Production of Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles by Country by Volume (number and %), 2002 and 2003
Figure 3: Global Production of Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles by the Top Ten Countries by Volume (number), 2002 and 2003
Europe — Block Exemptions

EUROPEAN CAR MARKET
By Volume
Table 35: New Registrations of Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles in Europe by Country (number), 2000-2004

CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

9. PEST Analysis

POLITICAL FACTORS
ECONOMIC FACTORS
SOCIAL FACTORS
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

10. Consumer Dynamics

INTRODUCTION
Table 36: Summary of Results (% of respondents), 2005

OWNERSHIP OF CARS
"Owning A Car Outright Is Important To Me"
"I Use My Car As A Means Of Getting From A To B, Rather Than As A Status Symbol"
Table 37: Importance of Outright Car Ownership, and Cars as a Means of Transport Rather than a Status Symbol (% of respondents), 2005

FEW REPLACE THEIR CAR REGULARLY
"I Replace My Car Regularly"
"I Intend To Finance My Next Car In The Same Way As My Last Car"
Table 38: Regularly Replacing Cars, and Financing the Next Car in the Same Way as the Last Car (% of respondents), 2005

CASH PAYMENT MORE POPULAR THAN LOANS FROM A CAR DEALER
"The Next Time I Buy A Car I Will Pay For It Outright In Cash"
"I Expect To Finance My Next Car Through A Loan Arranged Through A Car Dealer"
Table 39: Importance of Outright Car Ownership, and Financing the Next Car Through a Loan Arranged Through a Car Dealer (% of respondents), 2005

FEW PLAN TO PURCHASE A CAR USING FINANCE ARRANGED ONLINE
"I Expect To Finance My Next Car Through Finance Arranged Online"
"I Expect To Finance My Next Car Through A Car Manufacturer Direct"
Table 40: Expectations of Financing Cars Through Finance Arranged on the Internet, and Direct Through a Car Manufacturer (% of respondents), 2005

SLIGHTLY MORE PLAN TO BORROW TO PURCHASE A USED CAR THAN A NEW ONE
"I Expect To Borrow To Buy A New Car"
"I Expect To Borrow To Buy A Used Car, Which Will Be Up To 1 Year Old"
Table 41: Expectations of Borrowing Money to Buy a New Car, and a Used Car Less Than 1 Year Old (% of respondents), 2005
"I Expect To Borrow To Buy A Used Car Over 1 Year Old"
"I Do Not Drive/Have A Car"
Table 42: Expectations to Borrow to Buy a Used Car Over 1 Year Old, and Do Not Drive/Have a Car (% of respondents), 2005

HIRE PURCHASE HAS LITTLE APPEAL
"I Intend To Lease My Next Car"
"The Next Time I Buy A Car I Will Use Hire-Purchase Finance"
Table 43: Intention to Lease the Next Car, or to Use Hire Purchase to Finance the Next Car (% of respondents), 2005

LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR DEFERRED PAYMENT PLANS
"I Will Finance My Next Car By A Deferred Payment Deal"
"I Expect To Finance My Next Car Through A Loan From My Bank"
Table 44: Financing the Next Car Using Deferred Payment, and Through a Bank Loan (% of respondents), 2005

FEW PLANNING TO TAKE OUT A LOAN FROM THEIR BUILDING SOCIETY
"I Expect To Finance My Next Car Through A Loan From My Building Society"
Table 45: Expectation of Financing the Next Car with a Building Society Loan (% of respondents), 2005

11. Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

ALLIANCE & LEICESTER PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

BARCLAYS PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

FORD MOTOR CREDIT
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

GE CAPITAL WOODCHESTER LTD
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

GMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

HBOS PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

LLOYDS TSB GROUP PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

PARAGON CAR FINANCE
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND Group PLC
Corporate Strategy
Strengths and Weaknesses
New Product Development
Brand Development
Innovations
Research
Appointments
Advertising
Profitability
Future Company Developments

12. The Future

THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product
Table 46: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2005-2009
Inflation
Table 47: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2005-2009
Unemployment
Table 48: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons (million), 2005-2009
Other Economic Indicators
Demographics
Table 49: The Projected UK Population by Age, 2002, 2006 and 2011

MERGERS AND ACQUISTIONS

FORECASTS 2005 TO 2009
Table 50: Forecast New Business for Motor Finance in the UK by Value (£m), 2005-2009
Figure 4: Forecast New Business for Motor Finance in the UK by Value (£m), 2005-2009

MARKET GROWTH
Figure 5: Forecast New Business for Motor Finance in the UK by Value (£m), 2000-2009
13. Consumer Confidence

METHODOLOGY

THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW
Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant May 2003 Prices (£ and £bn), May 2003, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005
Consumers Willing to Borrow
Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), May 2003, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005

THE WILLINGNESS TO SPEND FROM SAVINGS
Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant May 2003 Prices (£ and £bn), May 2003, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005
Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending To Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), May 2003, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005

14. Further Sources

Associations
Publications
General Sources
Government Sources
Other Sources
Bonnier Information Sources


Companies Mentioned - Alliance & Leicester Plc - Automobile Association - Barclays Plc - Ford Motor Credit - GE Capital Woodchester Ltd. - GMAC Financial Services - HBOS Plc - HSBC Holdings Plc - Lloyds TSB Group Plc - Nationwide Building Society - Paragon Car Finance - The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc


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