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New Projects of Hydrocarbon Production and Export in Russia: Risks and Opportunities


Description: Since 1999 oil and gas production has been increasing in Russia boosting the country's gross domestic product, budget surplus, and profits of oil companies. At the same time neither the state nor oil companies have been rushing to invest in new projects of hydrocarbons production and export. That has resulted in export infrastructure overloading and oil and gas production stagnation. Today's high world oil prices make the situation even worse. With unprecedented high oil prices Russia and its partners could raise high profits. Instead, they failed to be prepared to take advantage of the favorable situation on the market.

It is struggle for oil and gas assets repartition between key political groupings that everybody's attention has turned to. As a result, all efforts are concentrated on supporting large-scale merges and acquisitions. Besides, companies are afraid of losing investments in case of failing to win in political fights and they initially are unwilling to invest in green-field projects for they realize that in case they fail there is a possibility that all assets will be expelled and investments will be lost. Finally, it is hard to decide right now who will finally become a geopolitical partner of Russian political-nomenclature groupings. It is obvious that Russian resources are not enough to meet the hydrocarbon need of both East and West. Due to this fact Russia has to prioritize export and production projects as well as choose the right partner among foreign companies.

Highlights:

- Overview of general problems of Russian hydrocarbons production and export: Major threats and obstacles to Russian duel and energy industry development – oil production decrease, scarcity of transport infrastructure, lack of prudential taxation system. Prospects of different political groupings on key issues.

- Russia between West and East: Geopolitical alignment of Russian elites. American-European and Indian-Chinese partners of Russia.

- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to Europe: Obstacle to oil and gas transit through the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Baltic States, and the New Europe countries. North-European gas pipeline: can it really be an alternative to traditional export routes.

- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to the United States: Prospects of Shtokman project. Opportunities for oil export to the United States.

- New projects of Russian hydrocarbons production and export to the Asia-Pacific countries. Prospects for the Eastern Siberia development. Sakhalin projects, Eastern pipeline: key lobbyists and "saboteurs".

- Forecast for Russian hydrocarbons export in mid-term perspective. Possible actions of major oil and gas players depending on different scenarios of the industry mid-term development.


Contents: Introduction

Chapter 1
General Problems of Mining and Export of the Russian Hydrocarbon Rough

1.1 The Main Patterns and Issues in the Oil & Gas Field
1.2 Problems of Taxation and Investment Needs of the Oil Companies
1.3 Political and Economic Aspect of the O&G Sector of Russia

Chapter 2
Northern 'Export Gates' Of Russia. Outlook on Hydrocarbon Rough Shipments to USA

2.1 USA Market – The Two Birds in the Bush
2.2 The Barentsevo Sea Shelf
2.3 Shtockman – The Main Hope of Gazprom
2.4 Problems of the Northern Oil Transportation Routes

Chapter 3
New Projects of Russian Hydrocarbons Export to Europe

3.1 Northern European Pipeline – New Breakthrough to Europe
3.2 Problems with Developing Traditional Gas Transport Routes
3.3 Hardships of Middle Asia Transit
3.4 Baku-Tbilisi-Dzheikhan Pipeline – Damage to Russian Positions
3.5 The Narrow Black Sea Straits – Issue Past Its Prime
3.6 The Iran's Threat

Chapter 4
New O&G Mining and Exporting Projects in Apr

4.1 Resource Base of the Eastern Export Vector
4.2 Demand for Hydrocarbon Goods in APR
4.3 Problems of the Eastern Pipeline Construction
4.4 'Liberals' Against Development of East Siberian Fields
4.5 Sakhalin as the Battleground for Rosneft and Gazprom

Chapter 5
Outlook on O&G Mining: Scenario Forecasts

5.1 Price Crotch: Will Oil Go Dow In Price?
5.2 Scenario with High World Oil Prices
5.3 Scenario of Moderate and Low Oil Prices





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