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The Changing Face of Studio Video Sales: Grow New Markets, Push High Definition, Get Interactive

Description:
The major Hollywood studios are facing a changing landscape for the consumption of their home video products.

Sony Corporation is "betting the farm" on High Definition TV and HDTV products, including the next-generation Blu-Ray disc format. Sony's strategy may be strong enough to drive them into a dominating position for the future of digital home entertainment, and the other major Hollywood studios may simply be along for the ride.

Microsoft and Intel are also lobbying strongly to play a part, with their Connected Digital Home solutions. Microsoft and Intel have voiced strong support for HD-DVD.

Nobody can be sure how it is all going to play out.

By 2009, our forecast model predicts a worldwide retail value of
US$ 50 Billion, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.4% for annual sales value of Hollywood Video Content sold at retail. The DVD value will hold its own, but much of the growth will be due to:
- Portable Player products
- Next-Generation optical discs
- Movie & TV Downloads

We expect the three alternative delivery formats to gain momentum in 2006, and continue growing through 2009. The coming few years will be very interesting ones for the Hollywood studios.

The Changing Face of Studio Video Sales: Grow New Markets, Push High Definition, Get Interactive found the following:

By 2009, we forecast a worldwide retail value of US$50 Billion for annual sales of Hollywood video content sold at retail.

By 2009, 41% of US TV Households will be watching movies on HDTV displays.

DVD players that support HDMI deliver High Definition quality today, so next-generation High Definition optical products will need to provide "something more".

Over 40% of Japanese households will have wide-screen HDTV sets by 2009, and Europe and other Asian markets are already seeing robust sales of HDTV displays.

Portable player products and online download services are likely to lead industry growth, especially in Europe and Asia.

The bulk of the Hollywood movie and TV show DVD market value comes from just six countries: Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, France and Germany.

The intense media interest in next-generation optical disc formats is selling lots of magazines, but will not have much impact on the Hollywood "packaged goods" business until late in the decade.

The Changing Face of Studio Video Sales: Grow New Markets, Push High Definition, Get Interactive covers the market for movie studio video sales. It includes analysis of technology and market trends for the number of TV Households, by region, that have at least one wide-screen HDTV-capable video display. The report also forecasts annual retail sales of Hollywood video products by category and by region through 2009. Profiles of major players in the home video industry are also provided.

 
Contents:
- Executive Summary

- Methodology
Multimedia Forecasting Experience Since 1991
Experienced Team Of Analysts
Methodology
Previously Issued Reports That Provide Useful Information

- The Retail Video Sales Market
Hollywood's Symbiotic Relationship With Consumer Electronics Manufacturers
The "Network Effect"-DVD Player Sales Pull Forward DVD Title Sales and Create Accelerating Growth
US and International Hollywood DVD Title Sales Value
How Movies Get Released Into Multiple Markets
Territorial Rights Are the Rule of Thumb
Territorial Release Into Cinemas By Region
Territorial Release for PPV or VOD By Region
Territorial Release On Tape & DVD By Region
The Progressive Release-Cinema to Pay-Per-View To DVD
Distribution to Video Rental Stores
Movie Rentals Bring In About $10 Billion Worldwide
Pay-Per-View, or VOD, Via Satellite or Cable TV
Pay-Per-View and VOD Over The Internet to Personal Computers
DVD Premier Bypasses the Cinema and Helps Build Franchises
Multiple Versions of the Same Movie Are Now the Norm
Changes to the Content to Add Interest or Update the Marketing
Changes to the Format to Address Personal Viewing Tastes
Changes Coming to the Idea of Release Windows
Day & Date Release at the Cinema
Day & Date Release for DVDs
Mark Cuban's HDNET Challenges "Release Windows"
Comcast Ups the Ante to Change Pay-Per-View "Windows" While Offering to Protect DVD Sales
The Six Major Markets Are Becoming Mature and the New Markets Won't Grow As Fast for Hollywood Content
Two Options-Acquire Off-Shore Studios or Introduce New Ways to Gain Legal Access to Movie Content

- Three Major Issues That the Studios Must Deal With In a Next-Generation Optical Disc Format Approach
High Definition Video Won't Be Enough By Itself
Educating the Public About the Benefits of HDTV
Fox Television's Finest HDTV Standard
Does Surround Sound Mean High Definition, Too?
A Need for More HDTV Content
Today's HDTV Consumers Are Using High-End Standard Definition DVD Players
Delivering HDTV Programming to the Largest Possible Audience May Include Pushing HDTV Content Out to Set Top Boxes Equipped with Hard Disk Drives
Local Over-the-Air Digital HDTV Broadcasts Are Vital
Personal Computers with HDTV Media Adapters May Become Very Popular
Apple's New iMac G5 With Front Row Also Expands this Market Segment
HDTV Interactive Program Guides-IPGs-Will Be A Glitch In The US Market
Europe Will Take Years to Develop As a Market for HDTV Services
Europe Represents 30% of Today's Worldwide DVD Sales Value
Europe Will Still See Brisk Sales of Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Displays
Interactivity and Extended Features Will Become Important, Over and Above Support for HDTV
HD-DVD's iHD for Interactivity Developed By Microsoft and Disney
Blu-Ray's HDMV Mode Provides Simple Upgrades Over DVD
Blu-Ray's BD-J(tm) Toolset Is Based On Java and Is Compatible With the Multimedia Home Platform (MHP) and OCAP
Blu-Ray Is a Complete Consumer Platform, and Supports More Than Movies
Interactivity Features Provide Flexibility and Differentiation To Help Increase Sales, but Also Increase Complexity
Version Control Will Increase Complexity and Keep a Movie Title Active for Many Years

- The Startling Rise of HDTV-Capable TV Households Around the World
Regional Number of Total TV Households
Four Key Items That Pertain to Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display Devices
TV Households Likely to Have a Wide-Screen HDTV Display
TV Households With a Pay-TV HDTV Service
TV Households With an HDTV Display but No Pay-TV Service
Households With Broadband Internet Connections
Apple's iTunes With Video Service Appears to Foreshadow HDTV Delivery
Microsoft's Recent Settlement With Real Networks Looks Similar
BT (British Telecom) Group Launching a Broadband VOD Service In 2006
BT Service Expects to Sell a Set Top Box With a Hard Disk Drive
North American Households With HDTV
European Households With HDTV
Asia-Pacific Households With HDTV
Japanese Households With HDTV
Japan May Experience an Over Abundance of HDTV Content
Japan Will Foretell the Future of High Definition TV Content
Worldwide Households With HDTV
Households With HDTV By Region

- Personal Computers May Offer Some Key Interim Revenue Opportunities
The Connected Digital Home Is Coming
Intel's Viiv™ Entertainment PC Architecture
Apple's iMac Line Morphing Onto Intel Platform
Microsoft MediaCenter Edition Adding Adapters and HDTV
Built In Support for Content Protection & High Definition Content
Microsoft's Digital Rights Management (DRM) and HDCP
Built-In Support For Broadband Internet Connections
Providing High-Speed Download Delivery Services
Broadband Connection Speeds Keep Going Up
Improving Compression Techniques Make Files Smaller
Trickle Downloading Can Move Very Large Files Transparently
Providing Two-Way Connections for In-Depth Market Research
Movielink, CinemaNow, and Other Internet Movie Sites Are Already Doing This
Innovative Interactivity Features
Low-Cost Platform to "Test Drive" Interactivity Features
Interactive Features Can Be Delivered to Non-HDTV Households

- Five Scenarios For Next-Generation Optical Disc Formats
Hollywood Has Already Caught the Trend for Wide Screen Viewing
"Letterbox" Movies Morph Into "Wide Screen"
Full Screen DVD Releases Are Being Replaced With Wide Screen DVD Releases
Today's Wide Screen DVD Releases May Usurp the Market for Tomorrow's Next-Generation Products if High Definition Video Is the Only Benefit
Forward Compatibility Is Being Built Into Next-Generation Disc Formats
The Key Ingredient Is Not the Technology-It's Help Growing New Revenue Streams
The Growing Middle Classes Might Be Attracted to a Next-Gen Disc Format
China's Middle Class Families Could Be Worth Billions
India, Malaysia, and Other Asia-Pacific Countries Could Also Grow
Latin America and Eastern Europe Could Provide Growth, Too
The Three Technology Items-Discs, Interactivity, Broadband
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Sony Pictures Entertainment is Firmly Committed to Blu-Ray's Success
The HD-DVD Camp Will Have to Demonstrate a Business Model

- Parent Companies of the Major Hollywood Studios
All Six of "The Majors" Have Re-Structured During the Past 12 Months
Owning A Movie Studio Provides Some Unique Benefits
Sony Corporation
Sony Will Drive Blu-Ray to Success As a Consumer Electronics Platform
The Walt Disney Company
Disney Becoming a Pioneer for Alternative Video Delivery Methods
News Corporation
The Eyes of the World Are On News Corp.
Time-Warner
Warner Bros. Entertainment Has Over 69,000 Pieces Of Content
NBC-Universal-Part Of General Electric
Viacom
What Viacom and CBS Corporation Might Look Like Next Year
Paramount Studios Has Over 1,100 Titles Including Star Trek

- Forecasts for Hollywood Video Content Sales By Region
Four Categories of Movie Products for Sale at Retail
Traditional DVD Optical Discs
Portable Player Movie Products
Next-Generation Optical Disc Products
Movie & TV Downloads
North America By Category
Europe By Category
Asia By Category
ROW By Category
Worldwide Summaries By Category
Regional Summaries-All Categories Combined

- Our Final Thoughts
Sony Will Have to Win Big
Microsoft & Intel Will Drive their Vision Forward
Apple Will Also Play an Important Role In Digital Entertainment
Consumers Will Have a Lot of Options
The Hollywood Studios Will Adjust and Thrive

List of Tables

Table 1. Worldwide Annual Value of Hollywood Movie Products Sold At Retail (US$ in Billions, Annual Growth Percentage, Compound Annual Growth Rate)

Table 2. Annual US DVD Sales & Rentals for Major Hollywood Studios—2004 (Annual Sales US$M, Annual Rentals US$M, Annual Total US$M)

Table 3. Annual International Sales Of DVDs For Major Hollywood Studios—2004 (Annual Sales US$M, Percent of Worldwide Total, Cumulative Percent)

Table 4. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—North America (Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)

Table 5. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Europe (Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)

Table 6. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Asia-Pacific (Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)

Table 7. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Japan (Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)

Table 8. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display—Worldwide (Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of All TV Households, CAGR)

Table 9. TV Households With at Least One Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Display Device by Region (Number of TV Households in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Worldwide Total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)

Table 10. Typical Download Speeds For Full Length Movie Files (Speed of Connection in Mb/s, Size of File, Time in Minutes, Time in Hours)

Table 11. Major Assets And Businesses Of Sony Corporation—Owner Of Sony Pictures Entertainment And MGM

Table 12. Sony's Worldwide Revenue Breakout For 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)

Table 13. Major Assets and Businesses of the Walt Disney Company—Owner Of Buena Vista Entertainment

Table 14. Disney's Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)

Table 15. Major Assets and Businesses of News Corp.—Owner of Twentieth Century Fox

Table 16. News Corp. Worldwide Revenue Breakout for Fiscal 2005 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)

Table 17. Major Assets and Businesses of Time-Warner—Owner of Warner Brothers Studios

Table 18. Time-Warner Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)

Table 19. Major Assets and Businesses of NBC Universal—Owner of Universal Studios

Table 20. Major Assets and Businesses of Viacom—Owner of Paramount Studios

Table 21. Re-Structured Media Assets of Proposed Viacom Entity

Table 22. Re-Structured Media Assets of Proposed CBS Corporation Entity

Table 23. Viacom Worldwide Revenue Breakout for 2004 (Annual Revenues by Segment, US$ Billions, Percent of Total)

Table 24. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—North America (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

Table 25. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Europe (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

Table 26. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Asia (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

Table 27. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—ROW (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

Table 28. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category—Worldwide (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

Table 29. Annual Retail Sales Value Of All Hollywood Video Products By Region (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

List of Figures

Figure 1. Annual Worldwide Unit Shipments of Line-Powered DVD-Playback Capable Consumer Electronics Products (Annual Unit Shipments in Millions)

Figure 2. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-North America (Households in Millions)

Figure 3. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Europe (Households in Millions)

Figure 4. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Asia-Pacific (Households in Millions)

Figure 5. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Japan (Households in Millions)

Figure 6. Households With a Wide-Screen HDTV-Capable Display-Worldwide (Households in Millions)

Figure 7. TV Households With At Least One Wide Screen HDTV-Capable Display Device by Region (Number of TV Households in Millions)

Figure 8. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category- North America (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)

Figure 9. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Europe (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)

Figure 10. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Asia (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)

Figure 11. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-ROW (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)

Figure 12. Annual Retail Sales Value of Hollywood Video Products By Category-Worldwide (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)

Figure 13. Annual Retail Sales Value of All Hollywood Video Products By Region (Annual Sales Value, US$ Billions)
 
Contents:
A variety of new content delivery options for the home are creating tumultuous times for the movie industry. While standard-definition DVD sales are still going well, that market is likely nearing its peak. What's more, it's unclear how alternative delivery systems will impact the changing home entertainment landscape and DVD sales.
 
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