(AFG)AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC - Quantitative Valuation Report
- ID: 319807
- June 2016
- Region: United States
- 12 pages
- ValuEngine Inc
Advanced academic research that brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most comprehensive and useful report available. Our three models: Valuation Model, Forecast Model and Ratings Model are incorporated to give you a well-rounded analysis from three different perspectives. Consensus EPS trend and Earnings Surprise statistics provide additional insights. Also, detailed Company Profile, Fair Valuation; 1-3-6 month and 1-2-3 yr forecasts, 1-5 Engine Rating, Multi-stock comparison, Financials, Earnings Estimates, Risk Assessment, Data Summary and much more.
Each of our Quantitative Valuation reports Provides:
- Our Rating
- Fair Value
- Investment-Style Rating
- Return Forecasts
- Market Ratio-Based Valuation
- Quantitative Summary
- Earnings Report
- Analyst Expectations
- Annual Financials
- Quarterly Financial
Independent, numbers-based, objective Equity Research
Use this report to help to:
- Optimize your equity portfolio for the best risk/return ratio.
- Forecast equity portfolios value next year.
- Find a fair value for stocks and forecast their future prospects.
- Determine the chances of gain or loss on current holdings.
- Find momentum & volatility ranks for stocks.
Our valuation reports are updated on each trading date.
Yale finance professor Dr. Zhiwu Chen has done an excellent job of transforming academic research and rigorous mathematics into a practical investing tool. The valuation model combines 12-month trailing EPS, consensus analyst estimates, and the 30-year Treasury yield to come up with a fair value price for any stock. Then its forecast model uses common market trends such as momentum and price reversals, and runs simulations to determine the most probable price outcomes over three years. - Forbes
Note on the Models used to create the reports:
These company reports employ many proprietary models, which were adapted from innovative concepts in finance theory generated both in academia and from Wall Street practice. Each of the four models represents the state-of-the-art in valuation, forecasting technologies:
1) The Stock Valuation Model
2) The Stock Forecast Model
3) The Portfolio Advisor Model
4) The Portfolio Forecast Model
The Stock Valuation Model
The Stock Valuation Model was derived from the recent research and findings of Dr. Zhiwu Chen, Professor of Finance, Yale University, and his co-authors. The model is more sophisticated than traditional valuation models and outperforms its peers by employing a three-factor approach to stock valuation. Fundamental variables such as a company’s trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company’s future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all combined and used to create a more accurate reflection of a company’s fair value. Armed with these framework features, the Model then paints a detailed picture of a company’s fair value, which is represented by the model price.
The Stock Forecast Model
The predictive variables used in the forecasting models include both proprietary and well-established forecasting variables derived from credible financial research studies and publications. They use a distinct forecasting model for each forecasting horizon and every industry. The forecasting models capture, among other things, several important tendencies that stock prices consistently exhibit: Short-term price reversals Intermediate-term momentum continuation Long-term price reversals. They then apply the most advanced statistical/econometric techniques to ensure that the stock return forecasts are as reliable as possible. In addition, they have a realistic econometric model for assessing a stocks and a portfolios future return prospects. This econometric model involves running thousands of simulations to estimate the probability of a double in stock price as well as the probability of meeting and exceeding any given investment target by a stock or a portfolio of stocks.
The Portfolio Forecast Model
The Portfolio Forecast tool arrives at projections by utilizing forecasting models to estimate future returns for the individual stocks in a portfolio. After computing the future return forecasts for each stock, they then run thousands of concurrent simulations for all of the stocks in a given portfolio (subject to various econometric requirements). The thousands of simulated price paths created by this process form the basis for the Portfolio Forecast projections. Finally, the Portfolio Forecast tool calculates the most likely return forecast from the thousands of simulated outcomes.
The Portfolio Advisor Model
The Portfolio Advisor enables you to specify the following portfolio objectives: Maximize the chance of meeting or exceeding an investment target; Minimize the chance of loss; both of the above. Choosing the first option will prompt Portfolio Advisor to create an aggressive yet risky portfolio. Choosing the second option will prompt Portfolio Advisor to search for a conservative mix of stocks that will seek to preserve capital. Choosing the third option will prompt Portfolio Advisor to create a balanced portfolio that will seek to both maximize potential gains and minimize potential losses. Once you have specified an investment objective, Portfolio Advisor will utilize our forecasting models to estimate future returns for the individual stocks in your portfolio. Portfolio Advisor will then examine tens of thousands of possible capital allocation plans distributed across the stocks of your choice. From the results of these simulations, Portfolio Advisor will identify and display the most favorable stock allocation for your portfolio. Additionally, Portfolio Advisor will inform you of the exact number of shares to buy or sell of each stock so that the resulting portfolio will maximize your chances of maximizing gain, minimizing loss, or both.
Every valuation, forecasting, and advisory model has been extensively back-tested in the United States, Hong Kong, and Taiwan equities markets. The investment performance of each model has been proven to exceed that of many well-known stock-picking styles.
Note: Publications are updated on a daily basis and you will receive the most recent publication when you order.
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