The Transition to Digital Cable Ready: Analysis & Forecasts
The Diffusion Group, September 2005, Pages: 151
"Digital Cable Ready" is not your fathers "Cable Ready". The public has only seen the tip of the iceberg. This report explains why, including the technology, markets, consumer awareness and forecasts.
Some may remember when analog cable services required some form of set-top box (STB). After "Cable Ready" televisions and video tape appeared, the standalone STB began to fade away. However, when the next generation of digital TV services appeared, the STB re-emerged as an important component. Put plainly, TVs were always one generation behind the pay TV service providers, thus requiring a STB to enable the "latest and greatest" TV experience.
As the TV industry moves towards a "Digital Cable Ready" (DCR) environment, the role of the STB is changing yet again. But this transition is not as simple as the earlier analog transition. Digital cable, driven by a need to compete against satellite services and (soon enough) IPTV services, is tossing in all kinds of new features and services. To enable these new services the industry is moving through several other transitions almost simultaneously.
Simply stated, the challenges of evolving to "Digital Cable Ready" are an order of magnitude more complex than the transition from analog to digital cable – a complexity certainly to be reflected in consumer confusion and uncertainty.
Therefore, understanding the larger ecosystem is vital: any company hoping to compete will likely have to manage more than one battleground.
This report seeks to answer those questions by providing a clear overview of the transition, layering in extensive consumer data from a recent survey of 2,100 households, and forecasting the growth of the DCR market.
Key Findings
1.0 The Battlegrounds
2.0 Cable Industry Subscribers
2.1 North America
2.1.1 The United States
2.1.2 Canada
2.2 EMEA
Europe, Middle East, and Northern Africa
2.3 Asia and Australia
2.4 Latin America
3.0 An Architectural View
3.1 Conditional Access
3.1.1 Separable Security
the Emergence of CableCARD
3.1.2 How the CableCARD works
3.1.3 Overlay Infrastructure Systems
3.2 Interactive Services
3.2.1 Interactive Program Guide (IPG)
3.2.2 Impulse Pay Per View (IPPV)
3.2.3 Video On Demand (VOD
3.2.4 Parental Controls
3.2.5 Digital Video Recorder (DVR)
3.2.6 Interactive Television (iTV)
3.3 OpenCable Application Platform (OCAP)
3.3.1 Application Type
3.3.2 The Monitor Application
3.3.3 Application Examples
3.3.4 OCAP and CableCARD
3.3.5 OCAP DVR Extension
3.3.6 OCAP Home Networking Extension
3.3.7 OCAP and South Korea
3.3.8 Pluses and Minuses
3.4 Expanding HDTV Content
3.5 Next Generation Network Architecture (NGNA)
3.5.1 Accelerating the Digital Transition via Digital Simulcast
3.5.2 Switched Digital Broadcasting 3.5.3 1 GHz Plant
3.6 The Tuner
3.6.1 Digital Tuner Mandate
3.6.2 Tuner Design for ATSC/SCTE
3.7 European DVB
3.7.1 DVB Conditional Access (DVBCA)
3.7.2 Conditional Access Comparison
3.7.3 Multimedia Home Platform
3.8 Japanese Cable
3.8.1 Conditional Access
3.8.2 Interactive TV
4.0 Cable Industry Issues
4.1 The MSO and CableCARD World
4.1.1 Pricing
4.1.2 Provisioning Process
4.1.3 The Issue of Legacy CableCARD Hosts
4.2 The STB World
4.2.1 Why the US STB Market Wont Go Away
4.2.2 Why the U.S. STB Eventually Goes Away
4.2.3 Strategies for U.S. STB Manufacturers
4.2.4 Comcast/Motorola, Comcast/Cox
4.2.5 DVB-C STB World
4.2.6 STB Manufacturers
5.0 The Consumer Electronics World
5.1 Opportunities and Threats
5.2 What is True "Digital Cable Ready"?
5.2.1 FCC Defines Digital Cable Ready
5.3 Product Verification
5.4 CableCARDs in Devices
5.4.1 The Television
5.4.2 The DVR
5.4.3 The PC
6.0 Consumer View
6.1 Methodology
6.2 General Preferences
6.3 CableCARD Awareness
6.4 Perceived CableCARD Benefits
6.4.1 Saving STB Space
6.4.2 Getting Rid of Cables
6.5 Provisioning
6.6 Interactive Services
7.0 Analysis & Forecasts
7.1 The Timeline for Market Drivers
7.2 DTV Demand Analysis
7.2.1 Average Retail Pricing Trends
7.2.2 DTV Unit Projections
7.3 Digital Video Recorders
7.4 Digital Cable Adoption
7.4.1 Digital Simulcast Deployment
7.5 Conditional Access
7.5.1 CableCARD Deployments
7.5.2 Downloadable Security Deployments
7.5.3 Set Top Boxes with Separable Security
7.5.4 Summary Unit Volumes
Appendix
Tale of a CableCARD
Appendix B
Survey Details
Appendix C
US Cable TV Operators
Glossary
List of Figures
Figure 1
Short-Term Cable Companies Battlegrounds
Figure 2
Comparison of U.S. DBS, Digital Cable, All Cable, and Total TV Households
Figure 3
Top Ten MSOs: Digital Cable vs. Total Cable Television Subscribers
Figure 4
Top Six U.S. MSOs Subscribers 2004: TV, Digital TV, Internet and Voice
Figure 5
Top Three Canadian Cable Companies, 2004
Subscribers, Digital Cable and Internet
Figure 6
Digital TV, Internet & Voice Subscribers among Major European Cable Operators, 2004
Figure 7
European Cable Company Subscribers 2004: Homes Passed, TV, Digital TV, Internet and Voice
Figure 8
Estimates of Television and Cable households for Major Asian Countries
and Australia in 2003/2004
Figure 9
Top Ten MSOs in South America by Subscribers, 2004
Figure 10
Major Latin America Countries: Television Households, Cable and
Satellite Subscribers (2002)
Figure 11
Simplified HFC Cable Plant
Figure 12
CableCARD Examples: Scientific Atlanta and Motorola
Figure 13
Digital Cable Ready Logo
Figure 14
SmartCard, SIM Card, SoC Security
Figure 15
Head End, Host, and CableCARD Block Diagram
Figure 16
Encryption Mode Indicator (EMI) Modes Figure 17
General CA Overlay Scheme
Figure 18
Examples of PSIP Data Types
Figure 19
E-Bay on TV
Figure 20
Simplified OCAP Architecture
Figure 21
OCAP Application Examples
Figure 22
Current Cable HDTV Programming Offered in HDTV
Figure 23
Modular CMTS and Edge QAM
Figure 24
Cable Frequency Allocation
Figure 25
FCC Digital Tuner Timing
Figure 26
Simplified Tuner Block Diagram
Figure 27
DVB Cable around the World
Figure 28
Conditional Access Module and SmartCard (Conax)
Figure 29
Conax Content Voucher
Figure 30
Comparison of Different Approaches to Conditional Access
Figure 31
Conditional Access vendors for CAM (DVB) and POD (CableCARD)
Figure 32
Japans B-CAS and C-CAS Cards
Figure 33
Accumulated Number of CableCARDs Deployed to US Subscribers
Figure 34
STB and CableCARD Rates for Top Ten US MSOs
Figure 35
List of Cable Set Top Box Manufacturers
Figure 36
Digital Cable Ready Issues Tree
Figure 37
Number and Brand of Products CableCARD Verified as of July 2005
Figure 38
Pay TV Subscriptions
Figure 39
Viewership of Specific TV Programming
Figure 40
Date of Most Recent TV Purchase by Age
Figure 41
Planned Date of Next TV Purchase, by Age
Figure 42
Interest in Purchasing an SDTV, HDTV or DVR in the Next Six Months, by Age
Figure 43
CableCARD Awareness by Date of Most Recent TV Purchase
Figure 44
CableCARD Awareness among Those Likely to Purchase a TV
Figure 45
CableCARD Awareness by Type of Television Service
Figure 46
CableCARD Awareness by Income Level
Figure 47
Perceived Benefit of Saving Space if Using a CableCARD-Enabled TV Figure 48
Perceived Benefit of Fewer Video & Power Cables if Using a CableCARD
Figure 49
Perceived Benefit of Having One Less Remote if Using the CableCARD Figure 50
Provisioning Preference: Technician vs. Do-It-Yourself
Figure 51
Provisioning Preference by Income
Figure 52
Ranking of Interactive Services
Figure 53
Ranking of Interactive Services among ESPN Viewers
Figure 54
Ranking of Interactive Services by Gender
Figure 55
Lack of Interest in Interactive Services by Age
Figure 56
Ranking of Interactive Services by Age
Figure 57
Projected Timeline for "Digital Cable Ready" Evolution
Figure 58
Average U.S. DTV Price Projection
Figure 59
Annual U.S. DTV/Monitor Sales (Units)
2000 thru 2010
Figure 60
Cumulative DTV and Monitors in the U.S. (Units)
2000 thru 2010
Figure 61
Annual Net U.S. DVR Households that Subscribe to Cable: 2004
2010
Figure 62
Cumulative U.S. DVR Households that Subscribe to Cable TV: 2004
2010
Figure 63
Annual and Cumulative U.S. DVR Households that Subscribe to Cable TV: 2004
2010
Figure 64
Projected U.S. Digital Cable Subscribers
Figure 65
Projected U.S. Digital Simulcast & All-digital, Subscribers Passed
Figure 66
Annual U.S. CableCARD Deployments in Televisions and DVRs: 2006- 2010
Figure 67
Downloadable Security Deployments in US Televisions and DVRs: 2006- 2010
Figure 68
Annual U.S. Deployments of Digital Cable STBs with Separable Security: 2007
2010
Figure 69
Combined Forecast of U.S. CableCARD and Downloadable Security in Televisions and DVRs: 2006
2010
Figure 70
Type of Internet Access Used by Survey Respondents
Figure 71
Gender of Survey Respondents
Figure 72
Income Levels of Survey Respondents Figure 73
Top 25 U.S. Cable Companies Ranked by 2004 Subscribers
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