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Depreciation Lives for Fiber Optic Cables in the Local Exchange
Technology Futures, Inc, Feb 2003, Pages: 72
This report addresses the economic life of single-mode fiber optic cable installed by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) in the local exchange network. The depreciation lives of these cables are derived from analysis of demand, technology substitution, physical mortality, and competitive factors. The technology and competitive issues driving network changes are explained in detail.
Key Findings From This Latest Report
Today's embedded standard single mode fiber cables are already obsolete for high-density, long-haul applications and may also become so in the local exchange.
There are three types of advanced fibers available today that have significant advantages when CWDM or DWDM are utilized.
Our forecasts that approximately 95% of U.S. households will be online by 2020, and almost all of these will be broadband users.
Presently, there is very little fiber in the distribution plant. The timing of placing distribution is late enough that, in all likelihood, it will be advanced fiber. With long-haul fiber already using advanced fiber and newly placed distribution fiber also being advanced fiber, a bottleneck will be created in the middle of the network that contains the most outdated single-mode fiber.
Our forecasts that, by 2010, ILECs will provision one-third fewer access lines than today, and that, by 2015, less than half as many. Competition will strand large quantities of network equipment — including fiber cables, reducing the economic life.
We continue to recommend a projection life of 15 to 20 years for non-metallic cable.
Who should read this report?
Incumbent local exchange carriers
Competitive LECs
Interexchange carriers
Internet service providers
Telecom equipment manufacturers
Regulatory personnel
Depreciation professionals
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