Estonia's freight transport sector will continue to be affected by a drop in exports owing to a lack of demand from Russian markets (as a result of the food import ban) in addition to continuing economic weaknesses in Europe and especially in the Nordic countries, two of which are Estonia's top export destinations. Rail freight dominates the country's freight mix and will continue to do so over the medium term, benefitting from thawing tensions between Russia and the West over the longer term.
Estonia's economy has suffered since sanctions were imposed on Russia, and the ongoing tensions between the West and Russia will also affect the tourist industry in Estonia. However, we still remain bullish on Estonia's transport capabilities and for telecoms, the low-tax environment combined with a highly skilled workforce will benefit ICT services. Estonia's economy has shifted towards a more positive outlook and will post relatively strong real GDP growth over the next two years. With regard to exports, beyond the slightly pessimistic short-term outlook, Estonian exports are forecasted to improve over the medium term.
The recovery in the British and US economy will see exports to these markets rise. In addition, we believe relations between the West and Russia will thaw, increasing Estonian exports to the east. However, exports may not go back to the levels seen before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis by the end of our forecast period.
Table: Trade Overview (Estonia 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Estonia 2013-2020)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Estonia 2013-2020)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (Estonia 2013-2020)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Estonia 2013-2020)
Estonian Air Cargo
Eesti Raudtee Cargo (EVR Cargo)
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Estonia Politics Table
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Economic Activity (Estonia 2010-2019)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Estonia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Estonia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Estonia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Estonia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Estonia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology