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Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3499724
  • November 2015
  • Region: Hong Kong
  • 54 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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We forecast modest but nonetheless positive growth for Hong Kong's freight sector in 2016 and beyond. The current slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting trade flows in Hong Kong, hurting the economy and consequently impacting all freight modes in the city state owing to its dependence on trade with China. Due to the developed nature of the freight sector in Hong Kong, and with a forecasted downturn in demand for goods over the medium term, we expect growth to be robust, but subdued for all freight modes.

GDP growth is forecasted at 3.5% for 2016 and to steadily increase over the medium term at an annual average of 3.5%. However, Hong Kong's economy is dependent on trade with China, and the latter's bleak outlook will have a negative impact on import and export growth for the city state over the medium term.

The Chinese economy has lost further momentum at the end of 2015 and as such, we have downgraded our 2016 export and import growth forecast to 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.

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SWOT

Freight Transport

Political

Economic

Operational Risk

Industry Forecast

Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners

Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)

Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)

Market Overview

Company Profile

Cathay Pacific Cargo

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Hong Kong Political Overview

Oil Price Outlook

Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride

Macroeconomic Forecasts

Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Hong Kong 2010-2019)

Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025)

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sector-Specific Methodology

Sources

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Cathay Pacific Cargo

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