We forecast modest but nonetheless positive growth for Hong Kong's freight sector in 2016 and beyond. The current slowdown in the Chinese economy is affecting trade flows in Hong Kong, hurting the economy and consequently impacting all freight modes in the city state owing to its dependence on trade with China. Due to the developed nature of the freight sector in Hong Kong, and with a forecasted downturn in demand for goods over the medium term, we expect growth to be robust, but subdued for all freight modes.
GDP growth is forecasted at 3.5% for 2016 and to steadily increase over the medium term at an annual average of 3.5%. However, Hong Kong's economy is dependent on trade with China, and the latter's bleak outlook will have a negative impact on import and export growth for the city state over the medium term.
The Chinese economy has lost further momentum at the end of 2015 and as such, we have downgraded our 2016 export and import growth forecast to 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.
Table: Trade Overview (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (Hong Kong 2012-2019)
Cathay Pacific Cargo
Long Term Political Outlook
Table: Hong Kong Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Economic Activity (Hong Kong 2010-2019)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology