Research And Markets Research And Markets

Kazakhstan Mining Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3499810
  • November 2015
  • Region: Kazakhstan
  • 53 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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We maintain a bullish outlook as to the long-term expansion of Kazakhstan's mining sector, with the country becoming an increasingly attractive destination for investment. However, we note that immediate challenges will threaten to weigh on production growth over the next few years. We have revised our zinc output forecasts for the country downwards and retain cautious outlook with regards to coal and iron ore.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
- We still expect to see positive growth in Kazakhstani coal and iron ore production over the next few years, despite a deteriorating price outlook for both these markets. We forecast coal output to grow by 1.2% y-o-y over 2015-2019, while iron ore production will expand by 1.9% a year over the period.

- However, we have made significant downwards revisions to our zinc production estimates since the last quarter, following Glencore's decision to cut zinc production across its global operations and especially those located in Kazakhstan. The company is the majority share holder of Kazzinc, which accounts for over 90.0% of the country's total zinc production in 2014. As such, we revised down Kazakhstan's zinc production growth from 2.4% to -15.0% and 1.4% to -18.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. We expect 2015 output to total 281kt and 2016 output to be only 230kt. The country's zinc mining industry value will fall slightly, from 4.8% to 4.0%.

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Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)


Industry Forecast

Coal: China, India To Drive Long-Term Growth

Latest Updates
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)

Structural Trends

Country's Energy Needs Reliant On Coal

Industry Set For Solid Growth

Iron Ore: Downside Risk To Forecasts

Latest Developments
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2019)

Structural Trends

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index



Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index

Regulatory Development
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes

Trade & Investment Risk Analysis

Commodities Forecast

Commodities Outlook
Table: Commodities Price Forecasts

Competitive Landscape

Company Profile

KAZ Minerals
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results

Eurasian Natural Resources
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results

Regional Overview

Europe Mining: The Four Key Themes

Key Themes:

Russia & Poland To Defy Regional Slowdown

US Dollar Strength To Influence Trade Dynamics

Coal: Russia To Be Growth Bright Spot

Rare Earth Production To Shift Westwards

Global Industry Overview

Global Overview

1 Capex To Focus On Innovation

2 US Dollar Strength To Anchor Weak Metal Prices

3 Brazil And Australia To Defy Slowdown

4 Overseas Investment Appetite To Slow

5 2016 Key Bright Spots


Industry Forecast Methodology


Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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KAZ Minerals
Eurasian Natural Resources

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