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The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and their Implications for Human Healthcare


Description: This ground breaking, 132 page report links current information on emerging life sciences technologies with a scenario planning approach to identify growth opportunities and threats between now and 2020.

In the coming years, the convergence of genomics, proteomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, bioinformatics, nanotechnology and other life science technologies will pose significant opportunities and challenges in every sector of society. Two years ago, we, along with the William and Phyllis Mack Center for Technological Innovation, part of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, embarked on an ambitious program to lay out a range of reasonable futures for biosciences. Based on numerous workshops at the Mack Center and individual interviews with over 50 leading experts from academia, government and the private sector, the report represents a truly unique undertaking.

This report presents four scenarios that describe how emerging life science technologies might impact human healthcare between now and 2020. Major trends and uncertainties are identified, as well as key stakeholder groups expected to play a significant role in shaping the future. The Four Scenarios describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies within a framework of potential future forces and events.

Decision-makers can use the meta-scenarios articulated in this report as a starting point for crafting their own strategies for proactive and reactive response to the dynamic and competitive biosciences environment. Our long-term goal is to provide decision makers in various industries with strategic insights needed to develop, commercialize and deploy emerging life science technologies.

Decision-makers who will benefit from this report:

- CEO's, General Managers, Executives
- Business Unit Leaders
- Strategists
- Marketing Executives
- Investors/Analysts

Industries and other stakeholders:

- Pharmaceuticals
- Biotechnology
- Healthcare Providers
- Advocacy Group
- Academic Medical & Biotechnology Programs
- Undergraduate & Graduate Business or Strategy Programs

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How Scenarios Can Help Decision Makers Anticipate the Future

What Is Scenario Planning?
Scenario planning is a management tool for visualizing and describing several “possible futures” based on trends, uncertainties, stakeholder roles and cause-and- effect relationships (drivers). This approach is especially applicable to technology-driven industries that are evolving under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity.

Scenarios can be “meta-scenarios” that apply to an entire industry or set of technologies (such as biosciences), or “micro-scenarios” for a specific firm, industry or interest group. The scenario planning approach we developed enabled our research team to identify the most important uncertainties in biosciences, and use those to describe likely scenarios that can be monitored and planned for. For the biosciences, we identified “technological success” and “public support” as two critical variables/drivers, and these became the parameters for the 2x2 matrix used to create the four scenarios.

Ideally, decision makers can use these meta-scenarios as a starting-point to craft micro-scenarios and strategies for their organization, industry and environment. Our report identifies the trends, uncertainties and strategic factors that will influence commercialization of life science technologies and the evolution of health care in the coming decades.

Who Can Benefit From Reading This Report?

This report offers value to individuals and organizations in many fields, including:
- Managers in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, insurance, consumer products and other industries who are planning their business strategies,
- Policymakers trying to understand how to address the factors that will transform the future,
- Healthcare providers and practitioners, and
- Consumers and advocacy groups who want safe, effective, affordable medical cures and treatments.


Contents: PART I: INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 1: ASSESSING THE FUTURE OF BIOSCIENCES
Defining the Biosciences Space
The Scenario Planning Approach

CHAPTER 2: BIOSCIENCES TODAY
The Remarkable March of Technology
Nanotechnology and Bioinformatics
Industry and Technology Convergence
The Current Pharma Business Model
Developed vs. Developing Markets
Promises and Pitfalls

PART II: FOUR SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF BIOSCIENCES

CHAPTER 3: SCENARIO A – WHERE’S THE BEEF?
Scenario A: How We Got Here
Themes in Scenario A: The World We Live In
Scenario A: How We Live In This World

CHAPTER 4: SCENARIO B – NEW AGE OF MEDICINE
Scenario B: How We Got Here
Themes in Scenario B: The World We Live In
Scenario B: How We Live In This World

CHAPTER 5: SCENARIO C – BIO GRIDLOCK
Scenario C: How We Got Here
Themes in Scenario C: The World We Live In
Scenario C: How We Live In This World

CHAPTER 6: SCENARIO D – SCIENCE HELD HOSTAGE
Scenario D: How We Got Here
Themes in Scenario D: The World We Live In
Scenario D: How We Live In This World

PART III: NEXT STEPS

CHAPTER 7: PROFITING FROM UNCERTAINTY
Building a Strategic Framework
Lessons for Managing Emerging Technologies
Organizational Strategies for Innovation
In Conclusion

APPENDICES

I. DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Long Term Trends
Key Uncertainties
The Role of Stakeholders

II. SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELING
The Basic Model
Simulation
Technical Notes and Equations

III. BIBLIOGRAPHY


Summary: Four Scenarios for the Future of BioSciences

No one can reliably predict if emerging life science technologies will be wildly successful, or fall short of expectations—or whether the public will accept or reject these new scientific techniques. What we do know for certain is that multiple futures are possible. So how do we describe, anticipate and plan for these possible futures?

Prof. Paul Schoemaker has led a team of management researchers from the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School, and senior consultants from Decision Strategies International (DSI), to develop four scenarios that describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies from now until 2020 and beyond

A. WHERE’S THE BEEF?
Patients and practitioners want and need medical solutions to treat and cure disease, but science falls far short of expectations.

B. NEW AGE OF MEDICINE
Medical science achieves unprecedented breakthroughs that cure disease, help people live longer and ushers in a new age of personalized medicine.

C. BIO GRIDLOCK
Genomics, stem cells and other life sciences cause much commotion but fail to achieve their early promise. Research investment dries up and remains stalemated about ethical “what ifs.”

D. SCIENCE HELD HOSTAGE
Medicine and healthcare strive to develop and commercialize embryonic stem cells, cloning, gene therapy and other technologies, but the public rejects these technologies at a deep level.

How Decision Makers Can Use These Scenarios

Whether your organization is a pharmaceutical firm, biotech startup, government agency, NGO, or patient advocacy group, you need to think about the long-term future and consider the drivers that will shape the future.

The Future of BioSciences team at the Wharton School has developed four “meta-scenarios” that senior managers and strategic planners can use as a starting-point to create micro-scenarios for specific industries and environments.

In the coming months and years, DSI and the Future of BioSciences team will monitor industry trends, winning and losing strategies, best practices and critical issues. Our goal is to provide insights of interest and value to decision makers in organizations that are developing, deploying or benefiting from bioscience technologies.


Companies Mentioned Genentech Merck GlaxoSmithKline Novartis ImClone Bristol Myers Squibb Millennium Pharmaceuticals Abbott Laboratories Isis Pharmaceuticals Eli Lilly Anadys Pharmaceutical Pfizer Sanofi-Aventis Coley Pharmaceutical Group IDEC Pharmaceuticals Biogen chrion PowderJect Pharmaceuticals 3M Reliance Group (India) Hitachi Chemical Research Center Inc. (Japan/California) Toumaz Technology Oracle Johnson & Johnson Apovia (USA) Microsoft Apple Unix IBM Kodak Company Procter & Gamble Siemens Vanda Pharmaceuticals


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