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EuroFinance Edition One Market Focus 2003


Description: Introduction: The EU plans to grow. We aim to track its enlargement into a block stretching from the Atlantic to the Russian frontier, and to analyse the mass of disparate statistics and other data, from official and commercial sources. We aim to summarise the political, economic and social context for financial services the trends in consumers' take-up of financial services and the competitive performance of leading private-sector and mutual banks and insurers. Country Focus - Germany: The chances of any advance in Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) during 2003 are slim because of the extra taxes that individuals and companies will have to pay. The rise in the total taxation burden could be equivalent to 0.7% of GDP. Germany's national debt has hit the specified maximum for the Eurozone - 60% of GDP - and could reach 64% by 2004. However, if future pensions obligations are included in the count, debt rises to over four times GDP. The Government has brought in a tax-exempt scheme to encourage pension saving, although the relief applies to only 1% of gross wages in 2002 and 2003. Every 2 years, this ceiling will rise by one percentage point, to 4% of gross wages in 2008. In October 2002, unemployment rose to 10% - 4.16 million - and seemed to be heading towards 4.5 million by the end of the winter. A government plan to allow skilled workers from outside the EU to settle in Germany was vetoed in December 2002 by the country's highest court, fearful of the impact this plan would have on the one in ten who are currently jobless. 9% of the population are not German citizens, and over a third of these (2.6 million) are from Turkey. The Muslim population is approaching 3 million and is soon likely to account for four inhabitants in every 100. In the unemployment black spots within former East Germany, there are already ethnic tensions and complaints that foreigners are taking German jobs. The weak or negative growth of the five German Länder that used to form East Germany show that their absorption into one of the world's wealthiest states is no guarantee of a vibrant economy for them. In order to try and stem unemployment, the Government is making the workforce more `flexible': for example, limiting the rights of the unemployed to refuse job offers and making it easier for employers to sack workers. Workers are far from impressed. In January 2003, the Verdi union - which represents around 3 million staff in the public sector - threatened an indefinite strike unless their members received a 3% pay rise staged over a year and a half. In November 2002, Sir Howard Davies, Chair of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the UK, described the health of German banking as `precarious' - this is a strong judgement from a circumspect establishment figure. Germany's largest financial group Allianz lost _2.5bn in the third quarter of 2002. Deutsche Bank, HVB Group and Commerzbank were among the other quoted groups making losses in the same quarter. Publicly-owned banks, outside the commercial sector, still play a massive role in German financial services. Their remit is mainly domestic, and herein lies a problem: this means that there are very few German financial services groups with the freedom and resources to expand globally. There are severe solvency problems in the life insurance sector. The legal requirement for a minimum annual return of 3.25% on with-profits policies is a daunting drain on insurers' resources. A shakeout of the weakest insurers is virtually certain, perhaps a third of the total. In preparation for the shakeout, insurers have agreed with the regulator to dedicate 1% of life assurance investments to a new company, Protektor, which will purchase policies from companies that cannot afford to continue trading. The new markets of Eastern Europe offer a potential profits stream to insurers and banks alike, but some German banks have been forced to withdraw already because their balance sheets cannot stand the costs of expansion. Bankgesellschaft Berlin, for example, has sold Zivnostenska Banka in the Czech Republic to Italy's UniCredito, which itself is seizing opportunities in Eastern Europe. UniCredito chose the partnership route, with the market-leading German insurer Allianz, to acquire Zagrebacka Banka in Croatia and Bank Pekao in Poland As the US prepared for war against Iraq in winter 2002/2003, world capital accelerated its flow into government bonds in `safe' havens, of which the Eurozone (including Germany) is one of the safest. Fear of imminent war and resulting instability is, therefore, giving a much-needed boost to the financial environment in Germany. Unless miraculous peace agreements transform 2003, investors and fund managers all over the world will be searching for security. This should enable safe-haven governments, such as that of Germany, to scale back yields on their bonds little enough respite from economic conundrums, but welcome all the same. Country Focus - Austria: Austria benefits from financial institutions that keep stumm. Austria was thus party to the intricate manoeuvrings that held up agreement on the full disclosure of interest paid to EU residents on deposits they hold in Community countries outside their own home nation. Austria, plus Luxembourg and Belgium, held up the new régime because it would harm their financial services sectors, which are absolutely crucial to the economy. Switzerland, outside the EU, offered to levy a tax of 35% on income paid to depositors, and to pass 75% of it on to the EU, without identifying the depositors. The Swiss offer was conditional upon Austria, Luxembourg and Belgium levying the same rate of tax. The European Commission offered them a postponement but at a price. The Council of Economics and Finance Ministers resumed talks on the 21st January 2003 and agreement was quickly reached. From January 1st 2004, all EU countries except Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg are to exchange information on interest paid on deposits held by people who live in other member states. Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg are to apply a withholding tax, rising from 15% in 2004 to 35% in 2010, and will be able to keep 25% of this tax, passing on 75% to each depositor's country of residence. There will be a full report in Edition Two of EuroFinance. By way of compensation for the likely loss of banking deposits once the tax applies, Austria has a new market on her doorstep: the EU applicants from Eastern Europe. The big five banks - Bank Austria Creditanstalt (part of the German group HVB), Erste Bank, Bawag, RZB and Österreichische Volksbanken (ÖVAG) - are all expanding eastwards. Insurers too are looking east. Generali Vienna, the Austrian arm of the leading Italian insurer Generali, is the gateway for Generali's growing insurance business in Eastern Europe. Austria's major insurer - Uniqa - with over a fifth of the overall national market and more than half of the important health insurance sector, has bought the Hungarian insurer Agrupacion Funeuropa Biztosito. Uniqa also controls insurance companies in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia, as well as in Italy and Switzerland. Austria protects its own commerce and industry with the Takeover Act (Übernahmegesetz), which requires any individual or organisation acquiring a controlling interest in an Austrian quoted company to make a public bid for the company's entire stock. The law is a deterrent to speculation, and helps the current owners of Austria's banks and insurers to maintain control. The real success of Austria's leading banks in promoting their position on the crossroads between East and West Europe, however, may well have prompted the unpredictable right-wing politician Jörg Haider to allege that the leading banks operated a cartel. The European Commission agreed and fined the banks a total of _124m for anti-competitive operations. Country Focus - Luxembourg: Luxembourg is the world's richest country, on a per-capita basis. Financial services provide a quarter of GDP and around a third of the Government's income, and employ one worker in every eight. The sector is critical, and any event that cut its contribution to revenues would be profoundly damaging. However, even in Luxembourg, economic growth has slowed. Assets that non-residents hold in Luxembourg are not subject to tax this is a major attraction and an important reason for the duchy's eminence in financial services, notably wealth management and global custody as well as banking. Thus Luxembourg was opposed to the EU's withholding tax, because it could trigger an outflow of funds. Companies IN TheNews - Swiss Banks: The European Commission, worried about tax evasion, wants Swiss banks to provide the EU with details of the interest earned by those EU nationals who have Swiss bank accounts. Swiss banks have devised a compromise plan, offering to levy a withholding tax and pass 75% of it on, anonymously. This was not sufficient for the Commission, and, at the time of publishing (February 2003), the debate was still ongoing. The banks need their secrecy, for they are not the bastions they used to be. Banks and insurers alike have suffered since stock markets began their long slide in 2000. Swiss Re and Zurich Financial Services made losses in 2001, Swiss Life's profits were down 87%, and Credit Suisse's by 73%. UBS and Bâloise, in contrast, fared relatively well, with profit decreases of 28% and 36% respectively. UBS outperformed Credit Suisse for several reasons, including a sharper focus on investment banking and wealth management for an elite clientèle. Four of Switzerland's seven largest financial companies returned net losses in the first half of 2002, and the other three all performed worse than in the first 6 months of 2001. During 2002, Switzerland was a revolving door for senior executives in banking and insurance. More foreigners have been recruited to boards, and this is likely to change the banking culture. Topic Spotlight - General Insurers Seek Silver Linings: A trend towards lower fixed liabilities right across property and casualty insurance can be expected. Between July 2001 and December 2002, capital outflows from general insurers were thought to be in the region of $140bn to $150bn. Over the same period, investment income has totalled no more than $30bn, thereby leaving a gap of $110bn to $120bn. Premiums have to rise in order to fill this chasm. During 2002, many rates more than doubled. Professional indemnity insurance and employers' liability insurance have become so costly - rates sometimes increasing tenfold - that many customers are being forced to trade (illegally) without insurance, or stop trading completely. Within the separate EU states, financial services - including insurance - are highly concentrated. Given a true Union-wide market, the leading companies would be poised to make rapid gains at the expense of small national and regional concerns. The strategy of Europe's largest insurance group, Allianz, is to transform itself from an insurer into a complete financial services provider, with its own distribution networks. However, during 2002, Allianz suffered even more from equity devaluations and banking losses than from poor insurance performance. There are some bright spots for Allianz, but the group classified 2002's flood and asbestos liabilities as `exceptional' (i.e. unlikely to recur) and this may be a mistake. Allianz's French subsidiary AGF, Groupama of France and ING of the Netherlands are also considered in this section. A true single market for insurance came one step closer at the end of September 2002, when the EU's Council of Ministers approved the Insurance Mediation Directive. The Directive's intent is to protect consumers rather than to dismantle national boundaries. The Commission has other concerns about failings in the insurance market. The Fifth Motor Insurance Directive requires better compensation for pedestrians and cyclists who are involved in traffic accidents - a change that is likely to push up premiums. Apart from the survival power of strong global brands, and glimmers of promise in the emergency rescue and assistance sector, there are geographical opportunities in Spain and in Eastern Europe. Islamic insurance products are another growth sector, but one requiring specialist religious knowledge. In other respects, general insurers are hedged in by rising liabilities and customer resistance to the consequent higher premiums. The best prospects otherwise are in compulsory insurance, such as third-party liability for motor vehicles. However, even when insurance is mandatory, if customers cannot afford the premiums, they may, in growing numbers, go without insurance and risk prosecution. Data Trends - KEY Figures Across TheEU AND Beyond: - The relative insignificance of the EU in terms of world population is charted, as is the expected rise in Muslim populations that will make new demands on the design of financial services. - Far too little attention has been given so far to the whole issue of financing Eastern European nations when they join the EU. To put the ten applicant countries in context, their accession will be of a similar order to 60% of Mexico becoming a new state within the US. - In terms of public sector spending, Austria, Greece, Belgium and Italy all suffer government debt exceeding 60% of GDP, and Germany is hitting the limit. - Switzerland, Norway and Denmark have higher labour force participation than other European countries. The potential for economic growth is limited when employment rates are high, because the great majority of adults below retirement age are fully occupied. - Households in most developed economies save far less than they did in 1985, but, since 2000, there has been a tendency for households to increase their savings rates (although not in the UK, Denmark, Japan, Korea or Australia). Only France, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden have shown a broadly upward trend in household saving since 1985. Financial wealth per capita in the six largest EU markets is considerably less than in the US and Japan. 56.9% of financial wealth in the US is in shares and pension funds, compared with 18% in Japan, where the preference is for straightforward bank deposits, as it is in the main markets of the EU - with the exception of the Netherlands and the UK. - The Eurozone nations with the least-developed markets for consumer credit are Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Finland. During 2002, consumer credit roared upwards in the UK, powered by borrowers' belief that the soaring values of their homes would provide a sufficient hedge against the risk of being unable to repay. On 11th September 2002, the European Commission adopted a draft directive to harmonise consumer credit. Potential borrowers, however, are likely to need a lot more information about terms, conditions, regulation, and their rights, and will also need to be sure that all communications can be in their first language, before actively searching for credit throughout the EU. - The UK, home of Europe's two largest banks, and the second- (Hsbc) and fifth- (Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS]) largest banking groups in the world, remains the main centre for financial services in Europe. Europe NOW: - The Belgian bancassurance group KBC, which turned in a good performance for the first three quarters of 2002, is the leading European financial services company in the new markets of Eastern Europe. - Unhappy customers of the Belgian/French banking group Dexia began 2003 by starting legal action to obtain _3.5bn in damages, claiming that the bank mis-sold them a share-leasing scheme. - In October 2002, EU member states agreed to four pan-European bodies to regulate banks and insurers, and to two committees: one to advise on the legislation, and one to co-ordinate the detailed application of the regulations. A single market for financial services is supposed to be in place by 2005. - Denmark is to vote in 2004 - or 2005 at the latest - on joining the Eurozone, after turning down membership in 2000. Sweden is expected to hold a referendum in September 2003. - AXA, France's largest insurer, has put AXA Nederland and AXA Konzern in Austria on the market. Austria's largest insurer, Uniqa, is keen to buy AXA Konzern. Crédit Agricole has mounted a `friendly' bid for Crédit Lyonnais, determined to acquire the bank despite the predatory intentions of BNP Paribas. - The Italian regulatory authority, Consob, has given Mediobanca and SAI until the middle of February 2003 to cut their combined holding in Fondiaria from 43% to less than 30%. - Spain's banks are facing 2003 with trepidation. The troubles in Latin America are far from over, now that unrest in Venezuela has bubbled to the surface. - Massive cross-shareholdings are not such a good idea when one partner wants out. On 25th November 2002, Banco Santander Central Hispano (SCH) sold 37.5% of its holding in RBS to several buyers, for around £1.36bn, leaving it with 5% of the bank and a capital gain of around £520m. The proceeds will help compensate for losses in South America, notably Argentina. - The UK insurer Britannic has announced a moratorium in 2003 for bonus payments to policyholders and final dividends to shareholders. - Hsbc's $13.2bn purchase of US insurer Household International signals the UK-based group's intentions to rival Citigroup as the leading global bank. Household International's 53 million customers now come Hsbc's way. - Europe's largest life and pensions provider, Aviva, agreed a major bancassurance deal with ABN Amro of the Netherlands in November 2002.


Contents: TABLE OF CONTENTS:

Executive Summary 6

INTRODUCTION 6
COUNTRY FOCUS — GERMANY 6
COUNTRY FOCUS — AUSTRIA 8
COUNTRY FOCUS — LUXEMBOURG 9
COMPANIES IN THE NEWS — SWISS BANKS 9
TOPIC SPOTLIGHT — GENERAL INSURERS SEEK SILVER LININGS 10
DATA TRENDS — KEY FIGURES ACROSS THE EU AND BEYOND 11
EUROPE NOW 12

1. Country Focus — Germany 13

DEATH OF THE DEUTSCHMARK — DECLINE OF A POWERHOUSE ECONOMY 13
Germans Want Their Deutschmark Back 13
Table 1: Annual Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1995 Prices (ebn), Fourth Quarter 2000-Third Quarter 2002 13
GOVERNMENT DESPERATE FOR MORE CASH 14
NEW MEGA MINISTRY MAKES LIFE TOUGHER FOR THE UNEMPLOYED 15
LITTLE SCOPE TO INCREASE TAXES 16
IRON CURTAIN LEGACY 17
Table 2: Comparison of Old (Western) and New (Eastern) Länder by Demographic and Economic Criteria (%), 2001 18
Figure 1: Population, Unemployment and Contribution to GDP in the Western Länder (%), 2001 19
Figure 2: Population, Unemployment and Contribution to GDP in the Eastern Länder (%), 2001 20
EURO MAKES GERMAN DEVALUATION IMPOSSIBLE 21
Savings Dip 22
Banking `Precarious' 23
FEW BANKS HAVE FREEDOM TO GO GLOBAL 24
Table 3: Germany's Largest Banking Groups by Total Assets, Number of Branch Offices and Staff, and Ownership (em, % and number), 2001 25
CONSUMERS AVOID SPENDING 27
MARKET OPPORTUNITY IN PENSIONS? 27
`Safe Haven' Is Attraction 28

2. Country Focus — Austria 29

EXTREME POLITICS 29
SECRECY AIDS ECONOMY 30
NEW EU MEMBERS VITAL FOR AUSTRIAN BANKING 31
Austrian Government's Soaring Need for Revenue 34

3. Country Focus — Luxembourg 36

THE ANOMALY OF LITTLE LUXEMBOURG 36
OPPOSITION TO WITHHOLDING TAX 37
Table 4: Financial Centres Ranked by External Assets ($bn and %), as at 31st December 2001 37
Table 5: Luxembourg's Banks Ranked by Non-Consolidated Net Profit (em), 2001 38
Table 6: Luxembourg's Banks Ranked by Non-Consolidated Balance Sheet Total (ebn), 2001 39

4. Companies in the News — Swiss Banks 40

UNREMITTING PRESSURE TO LIFT SECRECY VEIL 40
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST 41
LUCKY 13 FOR UBS 42
Table 7: Banks and Insurers Among Switzerland's Largest Companies, 2002 42
Table 8: Financial Results for Leading Swiss Financial Services Companies (SFrm, %, SFr and SFrbn), 2001 44
Table 9: Financial Results for Leading Swiss Financial Services Companies (SFrm and %), First Half of 2002 45
FOREIGN MARKETS CRUCIAL FOR GENERAL AND REINSURANCE 48
Table 10: Premiums Received by Swiss Insurers (SFrbn and ebn), 2001 49

5. Topic Spotlight — General Insurers Seek Silver Linings 50

SHADOW OF 11TH SEPTEMBER 50
FLOODS CASH CALL 51
DEFICITS IN GERMANY 53
TROUBLE AT THE TOP 54
Table 11: Allianz's Property and Casualty Insurance Performance (em and %), First Three Quarters of 2001 and 2002 55
INSURANCE MEDIATION DIRECTIVE 57
CONTEST FOR EASTERN PROMISE 57
Figure 3: The Czech Republic — Ownership of the Five Largest Financial Groups by Assets ($m), 1st January 2002 60
Figure 4: Hungary — Ownership of the Five Largest Financial Groups by Assets ($m), 1st January 2002 61
Figure 5: Poland — Ownership of the Five Largest Financial Groups by Assets ($m), 1st January 2002 62
Figure 6: Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia — Ownership of the Five Largest Financial Groups by Assets ($m), 1st January 2002 63
BRIGHT SPOTS? 63

6. Data Trends — Key Figures Across the EU and Beyond 66

POPULATION AND POPULATION CHANGE — INDIGENOUS AND BY MIGRATION 66
EU To Become Less Significant 66
Table 12: Forecast World Population by Ten Most Populous Countries, the EU and Other Countries (million), 2000 and 2050 66
Figure 7: Forecast World Population by Ten Most Populous Countries, the EU and Other Countries (million), 2000 and 2050 67
Table 13: Forecast Population in the Ten Most Populous Islamic States and the UK (million), 2000, 2025 and 2050 68
Figure 8: Forecast Population in the Ten Most Populous Islamic States and the UK (million), 2000, 2025 and 2050 69
HIDDEN PROBLEM OF FUNDING EASTERN EUROPE 70
PUBLIC SECTOR SPENDING 71
Table 14: Government Debt in EU Countries as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2000 and 2001 71
Figure 9: Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2001 73
Table 15: Annual Surpluses and Deficits in Government Spending within the Eurozone (% of GDP), 1998-2001 74
Table 16: Labour Force Participation and Employment Rates in Selected Countries (%), 2002 and 2004 75
Figure 10: Labour Force Participation and Employment Rates in Selected Countries (%), 2002 77
Savings — Short and Long Term 78
Table 17: Household Savings Rates as a Percentage of Disposable Household Income (%), 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2002 78
Table 18: Per Capita Financial Wealth Based on Purchasing Power Parities in the Six Largest EU Markets (e and %), as at 31st December 1995 and 2000 80
Figure 11: Per Capita Financial Wealth Based on Purchasing Power Parities in the Six Largest EU Markets (e), as at 31st December 1995 and 2000 81
Table 19: Financial Wealth Per Capita as a Percentage of Gross Disposable Income in the US, Japan and the Six Largest EU Markets (%), as at 31st December 1995 and 2000 82
Table 20: Composition of Financial Wealth in the Six Largest EU Markets (_ per capita), as at 31st December 2000 82
Figure 12: Composition of Financial Wealth in the Six Largest EU Markets (_ per capita), as at 31st December 2000 84
Table 21: Composition of Financial Wealth by the Average of the EU's Six Largest EU Markets Compared With Japan, the US and UK (_ per capita), as at 31st December 2000 85
Figure 13: Composition of Financial Wealth by the Average of the EU's Six Largest EU Markets Compared With Japan, the US and UK (_ per capita), as at 31st December 2000 86
Table 22: Net Wealth per Household in the Six Largest EU Markets, the US and Japan (_), as at 31st December 2000 87
Consumer Credit 88
Table 23: Consumer Credit in Western Europe, the US and Japan (%), End of 2001† 88
Mortgages 90
Table 24: Household Wealth and Indebtedness Including Mortgages in Selected Countries (%), 2001 91
Figure 14: Household Wealth and Indebtedness Including Mortgages in Selected Countries (%), 2001 92
Table 25: Households' Net Wealth in Selected Countries (% of disposable income), 1990-2001 93
Figure 15: Households' Net Wealth in Selected Countries, 1990-2001 94
APPLICANT COUNTRIES: DATA OVERVIEW 95
Table 26: Population, GDP and Labour Costs in EU Applicant Countries Ranked by GDP per Capita (million, ebn and e), 2001 95
Leading Financial Groups 96
Table 27: Europe's Leading Financial Groups (em and %), 2002 97

7. Europe Now 99

BELGIUM — KBC ACHIEVES AGAINST THE TREND 99
BELGIUM — DEXIA FACES LEGAL ACTION 100
EU — PAN-EUROPEAN CO-ORDINATION 100
EUROPE — `UNCOOPERATIVE' TAX HAVENS 100
DENMARK —REFERENDUM ON EURO 101
FINLAND — INSURER EXPANDS IN LATVIA 101
FRANCE — AXA'S DISPOSALS 101
FRANCE — CONTEST FOR CRÉDIT LYONNAIS 102
GLOBAL — LEADING LANGUAGES 102
GLOBAL — NORWAY TOP OF PROFITABLE COMPANIES TABLE 102
ITALY — SAI FONDIARIA MONOPOLY RULING 103
ITALY — LIFE INSURERS BENEFIT FROM LOW EXPOSURE TO EQUITIES 104
SPAIN — BANKS FACE NARROW MARGINS 104
SPAIN/FRANCE — BANKS LINK TO PAY PENSIONS 105
SPAIN/UK — BANKING TIES LOOSEN 105
UK — BRITANNIC BOMBSHELL 105
UK — HSBC TARGETS TOP WORLD SPOT 106
UK — LLOYDS TSB CHOOSES LATIN AMERICAN SPECIALIST 107
UK/THE NETHERLANDS — AVIVA'S DUTCH TREAT 108

9. Further Sources 109

Austria (Eurozone) 109
Belgium (Eurozone) 109
Denmark (Outside the Eurozone) 110
Europe 110
European Union 111
Eurozone 111
Finland 111
France (Eurozone) 111
Germany (Eurozone) 113
Greece (Eurozone) 113
Italy (Eurozone) 114
Luxembourg (Eurozone) 114
The Netherlands/Belgium (Eurozone) 114
The Netherlands (Eurozone) 115
Portugal (Eurozone) 115
The Republic of Ireland (Eurozone) 115
Spain (Eurozone) 116
Sweden (Outside the Eurozone) 116
Switzerland (Outside the European Union and the Eurozone) 116
UK (Outside the Eurozone) 117
International 117
Bonnier Information Sources 119
Other Sources 120




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