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European Telecommunications Market Assessment 2002

  • ID: 35060
  • October 2002
  • Region: United Kingdom
  • Key Note Ltd
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The European telecommunication services market was valued at e282.4bn in 2001, and we expect this to increase to e289.3bn in 2002. The rate of market growth has slowed significantly in recent years, reflecting slower regional economic growth and the continued downward pressure on prices in an intensely competitive environment.

The market is divided between three main sectors: fixed line, cellular or mobile, and switched data and leased line. In the past five years, mobile revenue has been the most dynamic, along with areas related to data - for example, Internet traffic, virtual private networks (VPNs) - rather than voice transfer.

The European telecommunications market is currently facing a number of serious challenges. While broad social trends, such as the rise of the so-called information society, are making telecommunications increasingly important, the industry is caught in a serious financial crisis. Major telecommunications groups, such as BT Group PLC (BT), Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN), Deutsch Telecom AG and France Télécom SA, have accumulated huge debts, and are having to take drastic action, such as asset disposal and financial restructuring, in order READ MORE >

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TABLE OF CONTENTS:
<BR>
<BR>Executive Summary 1
<BR>
<BR>1. Introduction 8
<BR>
<BR>EXPECTATIONS OF KEY PLAYERS NOT MET 8
<BR>Table 1: Expenditure on Third Generation Licences by Selected European Countries (ebn), 2000-2002 8
<BR>Figure 1: Expenditure on Third Generation Licences by Selected European Countries (ebn), 2000-2002 9
<BR>NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDERPINS LONGER TERM GROWTH 9
<BR>
<BR>2. Strategic Overview 11
<BR>
<BR>MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 11
<BR>Services Account for Bulk of Market Value 11
<BR>Table 2: European Telecommunications Market by Sector by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 11
<BR>Figure 2: European Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 1998-2002 12
<BR>Table 3: European Telecommunications Services Market by Type of Service by Value(ebn and %), 1998-2002 13
<BR>Germany and the UK Hold Largest Value Shares 14
<BR>Table 4: European Telecommunications Markets by Value (ebn and %), 2001 14
<BR>THE THIRD GENERATION GAMBLE 14
<BR>Technological Stepping Stones 14
<BR>A Wealth of Opportunities 15
<BR>The Financial Cost of Third Generation 15
<BR>Reverse the Charges? 16
<BR>THE THIRD GENERATION DILEMMA 16
<BR>Caution Over Third Generation Rollout 16
<BR>General Packet Radio Services Launched/Due to Launch 16
<BR>Launched in 2000 16
<BR>Launched in 2001 17
<BR>Launched in 2002/2003 17
<BR>Your Call On Hold? 18
<BR>Interest in Third Generation Services Waning 18
<BR>Billing Problems 19
<BR>Tiered Payment Structure Possible 19
<BR>The Need for Industry Consolidation 20
<BR>Patent Problems Could Affect Service Rollout 20
<BR>CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS 21
<BR>Key Issues 21
<BR>Pressure On Fixed-Line Operators 21
<BR>Pressure on Mobile Operators 22
<BR>Table 5: The Cost of Third Generation Licences in Europe (number and ebn), 2000-2002 22
<BR>Lower Corporate Valuations 23
<BR>Mergers and Acquisitions Few and Far Between 23
<BR>The Key Players 24
<BR>Table 6: Dominant Telecommunications Operators by Country, 2002 24
<BR>The Competitive Environment 26
<BR>Table 7: Percentage of European Telecommunications Markets That are Fully or Partially Competitive, 2002 27
<BR>Table 8: Penetration of Telecommunications Services in European Markets (% of countries), 2002 29
<BR>
<BR>3. European Telecommunications by Country and Region 30
<BR>
<BR>INTRODUCTION 30
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN GERMANY 30
<BR>Table 9: Profile of the German and European Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 30
<BR>Figure 3: Profile of the German and European Telecommunications Market (million), 2001 31
<BR>Table 10: The Competitive Structure of the German Telecommunications Market by Sector, 2002 32
<BR>Market Size and Trends 32
<BR>Table 11: The German Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 33
<BR>Figure 4: The German Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 1998-2002 33
<BR>Local Loop Unbundled in Germany 33
<BR>Table 12: The German Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 34
<BR>General Packet Radio Service Delay Dampens Growth 34
<BR>Recent Developments 35
<BR>Financial Health of Deutsch Telecom AG 35
<BR>MobilCom/Third Generation 35
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN THE UK 36
<BR>Table 13: Profile of the UK and European Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 36
<BR>Figure 5: Profile of the UK and European Telecommunications Market (million), 2001, 2001 37
<BR>Table 14: The Competitive Structure of the UK Telecommunications Market by Sector, 2002 38
<BR>Market Size and Trends 38
<BR>Table 15: The UK Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn and %) 1998-2002 39
<BR>Figure 6: The UK Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 2001 39
<BR>Broadband the Only Area of Growth for Fixed-Line Services 39
<BR>Mobile Services See Most Dynamic Growth 40
<BR>Table 16: The UK Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 40
<BR>Figure 7: The UK Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 41
<BR>Recent Developments 41
<BR>Main Players Face Financial Crises 41
<BR>Intense Price-Led Competition 42
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN FRANCE 42
<BR>Table 17: Profile of the French Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 42
<BR>Table 18: The Competitive Structure of the French Telecomunications Market by Sector, 2002 43
<BR>Market Size and Trends 44
<BR>Table 19: The French Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 44
<BR>Figure 8: The French Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 1998-2002 45
<BR>France Télécom Promotes ADSL Services 45
<BR>Table 20: The French Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 46
<BR>Figure 9: The French Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 46
<BR>More Third Generation Bids Sought in France 47
<BR>Recent Developments 47
<BR>Third Generation Prices Cut 47
<BR>France Télécom SA Debt Crisis 47
<BR>Mobile Services at Heart of France Télécom's Problems 47
<BR>Ownership Battle for SFR 48
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN ITALY 48
<BR>Table 21: Profile of the Italian Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 49
<BR>Table 22: The Competitive Structure of the Italian Telecommunications Market by Sector, 2002 50
<BR>Market Size And Trends 51
<BR>Table 23: The Italian Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 51
<BR>Figure 10: The Italian Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 1998-2002 51
<BR>Fixed-Line Services Suffer as Mobile Penetration Increases 52
<BR>Table 24: The Italian Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 52
<BR>Figure 11: The Italian Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share (%), 1998 and 2002 53
<BR>New Tariff Structures Stimulate Growth in Italy 53
<BR>Recent Developments 54
<BR>New Fixed-Line Services Launched as Competition Increases 54
<BR>Operators Reluctant to Launch Third Generation Services 54
<BR>Broadband Essential for Further Growth 55
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN SPAIN 55
<BR>Table 25: Profile of the Spanish Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 56
<BR>Table 26: The Competitive Structure of the Spanish Telecommunications Market by Sector, 2002 56
<BR>Spanish Market Size and Trends 57
<BR>Table 27: The Spanish Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 58
<BR>Figure 12: The Spanish Telecommunications Market by Value (ebn), 1998-2002 58
<BR>Increased Competition in Spain Pressurises Prices 58
<BR>Shift From Prepay to Contract Tariffs Evident in Spain 59
<BR>Table 28: The Spanish Telecommunications Market by Service by Market Share, 1998 and 2002 59
<BR>Recent Developments 59
<BR>Fixed-Line Liberalisation 59
<BR>Telefonica's Finances 60
<BR>TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN SCANDANAVIAN COUNTRIES 60
<BR>Table 29: Profile of the Scandanavian Telecommunications Market (million and %), 2001 61
<BR>The Regulatory Sturcture of the Scandanavian Telecommunications Markets in 2002 62
<BR>Denmark 62
<BR>Finland 63
<BR>Norway 63
<BR>Sweden 63
<BR>Table 30: The Competitive Structure of Scandanavian Telecommunications Markets, 2002 64
<BR>Scandanavian Market Size and Trends 64
<BR>
<BR>4. Rest of Western Europe 65
<BR>
<BR>PROFILE 65
<BR>Table 31: Profile of Telecommunications Markets in the Rest of Western Europe (million and %), 2001 65
<BR>THE REGULATORY STRUCTURE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS IN THE REST OF WESTERN EUROPE IN 2002 66
<BR>Austria 67
<BR>Greece 67
<BR>Republic of Ireland 67
<BR>Portugal 67
<BR>Switzerland 67
<BR>Table 32: The Competitive Structure of Telecommunicaitons Markets in the Rest of Western Europe, 2002 68
<BR>MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS IN THE REST OF WESTERN EUROPE 69
<BR>Table 33: The Telecommunications Market in the Rest of Western Europe by Value (ebn and %), 1998-2002 69
<BR>
<BR>5. Eastern Europe 70
<BR>
<BR>MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS IN EASTERN EUROPE 70
<BR>Table 34: The Telecommunications Market in Eastern Europe by Value (ebn), 1998-2003 70
<BR>Figure 13: The Telecommunications Market in Eastern Europe by Value (ebn), 1998-2003 71
<BR>
<BR>6. Other Issues 72
<BR>
<BR>WORLDCOM, INC. 72
<BR>Fallout in Europe as WorldCom Reverses the Charges 72
<BR>Greater Transparency Evident Among European Players 72
<BR>CORPORATE DATA NETWORKS 73
<BR>Corporate Data Networks Buck Trend 73
<BR>Advantages of Internet Protocol Networks 73
<BR>Improved Security 73
<BR>NEW REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR DATA NETWORKS 74
<BR>A Single Regulatory Framework for Networks 74
<BR>Framework Directive 75
<BR>Access Directive 76
<BR>Authorisation Directive 78
<BR>Universal Service Directive 78
<BR>
<BR>7. The Future 79
<BR>
<BR>THE FUTURE FOR CELLULAR AND INTERNET PROTOCOL SERVICES 79
<BR>Bleak Outlook for Fixed-Line Services 79
<BR>New Telecommunications Infrastructures 79
<BR>`Communications Skin' Likely to Develop 80
<BR>Convergence Key to Future Market Growth 80
<BR>Further Investment Required Before Third Generation Success 81
<BR>FORECASTS FOR EUROPEAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS 81
<BR>Economic Recovery Offset by Increasing Competition 81
<BR>Table 35: Forecast European Telecommunications Services by Value (ebn), 2003-2007 82
<BR>Figure 14: Forecast European Telecommunications Services by Value (ebn), 2003-2007 82
<BR>Bright Future for Mobile Services 82
<BR>Table 36: The Forecast European Telecommunications Market by Sector by Value (ebn), 2003-2007 83
<BR>
<BR>9. Further Sources 84
<BR>
<BR>Associations 84
<BR>Publications 86
<BR>General Sources 87
<BR>Bonnier Information Sources 88
<BR>Government Publications 89
<BR>Other Sources 90

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