We expect the weaker rouble to bring back an increase in the number of tourism arrivals to Russia in 2016. Europe will remain the main market, owing to proximity, but the Asia Pacific will also rise as a regional source market as a result of increasing relations between Russia and China. The weak economy, however, will hamper these positive developments from having significant repercussions on the development of infrastructure (still hindered by issues related to EU economic sanctions) and international tourism receipts, the value of which will continue to fall due to economic circumstances. We expect the 2018 World Cup to provide new opportunities, however, for Chinese businessmen wishing to invest in Russia, unhindered by visa issues or economic sanctions.
Key trends and forecasts:
- We forecast inbound arrivals to increase from 23.5mn in 2015 to 26.4mn in 2019. This will be driven by the weak rouble, which will continue to attract tourism from neighbouring European countries, and by the increasing tourism partnerships Russia is forging with countries such as China, India and Argentina, to name a few.
- Economic sanctions on Russia continue to weight down heavily on the development of the country's tourism infrastructure, mostly as a result of difficulties in obtaining bank loans and/or difficulties in obtaining business visas to come to Russia. The 2018 World Cup remains a significant incentive for development, however, and we expect that this incentive will find echo in China, which is strengthening its ties with Russia on many different fronts.
Table: Key Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Inbound Tourism (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Tourism Receipts (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Russia 2012-2019)
Table: Tourist Departures and Consumption (Russia 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Domestic Hotel Groups
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
Table: International Hotel Groups
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators