We have made downwards revisions in our Q116 IT forecast for Venezuela to take into account the prolonged impacts of the macroeconomic recession in the country. The Venezuelan IT market, like the wider economy, is forecast to be a regional and global underperformer in 2016 - and over the medium term to 2019. The severity of the economic crisis and the weak prospects for recovery - at least in the short to medium term - mean there is also additional downside and potential. Exchange rate reforms enacted in February 2015 have hit IT market demand by eroding Venezuelan household purchasing power in global markets, thereby reducing demand for imports and imported components for assembly. The crisis is so severe that there have been widespread reports of device shortages in stores, as well as rapid price increases far in excess of wage inflation.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
- Computer Hardware Sales: Decline from USD371mn in 2015 to USD318mn in 2016.
- Software Sales: Decline from USD111mn in 2015 to USD98mn in 2016.
- IT Services Sales: Decline from USD97mn in 2015 to USD86mn in 2016.
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Americas IT Risk/Reward Index, Q116
Table: Regulatory Authority
Table: Compañía Anónima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV)
Table: Venezolana De Industria Technologica (VIT)
Demographic Outlook 2015
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components