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Mobile Phones Market Report 2003
Key Note Publications Ltd, May 2003
The mobile telephone market has changed dramatically over the past 5 years. Its total value increased by 153.3% between 1997/1998 and 2001/2002, to reach £8.18bn. Call minutes increased by 383.6% during the same period, while the number of subscribers to cellular services rose by 412.9%. However, there is a marked slowdown in growth as the market approaches saturation point. In 2001/2002, the market grew by 19.2% in value, compared with its peak growth rate of 35% in 1999/2000.
The mobile telecommunications market has undergone a stream of rapid changes in recent years, including the progressive deregulation of the industry, the challenges of the digital revolution, the increases in new technologies and communications channels, and the race to rollout third generation (3G) technology. The past 2 years have seen a noticeable slowdown in the telecommunications industry worldwide. At the end of the 1990s, companies gambled on predicted surges in demand and committed vast investments to building new networks, buying stakes in foreign operators and bidding for 3G licences. Demand fell very short of expectations, however, and the industry now faces enormous debt problems. Many firms have gone bankrupt and, in 2002, the large former state monopolies in Europe were having to implement debt-reduction strategies. Furthermore, operators in the UK must now deal with price caps on termination charges imposed by the Competition Commission. The Office of Telecommunications (Oftel) estimates that this could cut revenues by up to £2bn.
Key trends for the telecommunications industry in the short term look likely to include increasingly fierce competition with fixed-line and other media/communication channels. Competition is likely to continue to increase due to the continued globalisation of the industry and a progressive convergence with other new technologies. This offers mobile telecommunications operators the potential for new markets and new consumer demand, but also the danger of competitor technologies decreasing business.
A transition from voice to content services is also likely to occur. As third and fourth generation mobile technology is launched the functions of mobile phones will expand, making voice calls an increasingly small part of what people use their phones for. Operators suffering from falling revenues for voice services will work hard to encourage the usage of non-voice services, such as messaging, games, logos, ringtones and mobile Internet access.
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