The rewards on offer in the UAE's construction sector are significant - especially in the run-up to the Expo 2020 event in Dubai. Dubai will be the outperforming market, although we expect growth will remain healthy across the UAE, even with low oil prices. Government investment will be robust in infrastructure sectors, while the biggest risk stems from private investment in Abu Dhabi, which will be adversely affected by lower oil prices.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
- Lower oil prices pose little threat to the UAE's construction industry outlook overall - we forecast real growth in 2016 of 6.6% in real terms y-o-y.
- Abu Dhabi has the largest infrastructure investment programme in the UAE, but will also be the market most exposed to the fall in oil prices, given its economy's reliance on the sector. Dubai and the Northern Emirates' fiscal position, which relies much less on oil revenue, will be buoyed by our expectation for growth in the non-hydrocarbons sectors of the economy.
- The residential and non-residential building outlook remains positive as measures to cool the market take effect. Numerous measures have been undertaken, such as rent caps and requirements of about 50% payment before property transfers occur, to prevent speculative buyers from overheating the residential market. Additionally, tax increases for Indian buyers should cool demand in the market.
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (United Arab Emirates)
United Arab Emirates - Infrastructure & Construction - Q1 2016
Infrastructure And Construction Continue Robust Growth
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (United Arab Emirates 2014-2024)
Table: Major Projects Supporting Forecasts - 2016-2020
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: MAJOR PROJECTS: Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
Table: Major Projects: Energy and Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
Table: MAJOR PROJECTS: Residential and Non-Residential Buildings
Industry Risk Reward Index
UAE - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Middle East- MENA Infrastructure RRI: Old Risks, New Rewards
Table: MENA RRI Table
Table: UAE Construction Players - Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Dutco Balfour Beatty Group
Habtoor Leighton Group
Drake & Scull International
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators