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Home Gateway Report: Worldwide Multi-Carrier Digital Settop and Services Analysis and Forecast 2003-2006
Multimedia Research Group (MRG, Inc), January 2003, Pages: 150
Home Gateway Report: Worldwide Multi-Carrier Digital Settop and Services Analysis and Forecast 2003-2006 covers all major digital video carriers including Satellite (DTH), Digital Terrestrial (DTT), and Digital Cable.
The Telco-based video market is covered in another report, IP/Broadband Video Business Case and Global Forecast - 2003-2006, also published by MRG, Inc.
Digital video households, while still far fewer than analog video households worldwide, represent one of the fastest growing sectors in electronics today. Anticipated growth from 2002-2005 is approximately 67% worldwide, meaning a potential windfall for infrastructure, receiver, display, and content suppliers.
The development and distribution of digital video content has grown beyond regionalism to reach an international scope. International standards like Mpeg-2, Gigabit Ethernet, Internet Protocol, Mpeg-4, MHP, DVB, Ocap, plus caching and storage products being formed into regional SANs (Storage Area Networks), all help to hasten the move toward a new kind of multi-channel economics for digital video services.
The traditional multi-channel video broadcast model is beginning to move into maturity. In its place, a more precise point-to-point model is emerging because broadcasting hundreds or thousands of unused “channels” no longer makes economic sense. Meantime, consumers of digital video will find an increasing array of choices including High Definition (HD), Digital Video Disc (DVD), Personal Video Recorder (PVR), home networking, and video file sharing. Therefore, video content providers, manufacturers, and service providers alike must stay ahead of the pack in this changing environment, taking care to offer only new services that consumers will buy.
This report is intended to help industry executives to exploit opportunities related to new technologies and emerging market forces. This report is also intended to help executives make profitable decisions today that will stand up in this fast-changing environment for years to come.
Video On-Demand vs. PVRs - U.S./Canada Cable
In North America in 2003, VOD/Svod (Video on Demand/Subscription Video on Demand) should continue for the second year as the U.S. cable industry’s most important new video service after high-end digital channels like HBO. With the capital cost per VOD stream dipping to below $200 (for networks already upgraded to HFC), subscribers with digital STBs can be activated (or enabled) easily from the headend. Because no changes have to be made (typically) to the digital STB in order to enable the VOD, the expensive “truck-roll” installation is eliminated. Only the headend and/or hubs need additional VOD technology.
By the end of 2002, the U.S. and Canadian (North American) cable market had over 19 million digital cable subscribers, with an expected 36 million digital subscribers to be in place by the end of 2005. Of that, about 3.85 million subscribers, or 20%, were VOD enabled in 2002, growing to an anticipated 18 million, or 50% of digital cable subscribers will be VOD enabled in 2005. Worldwide growth and revenue for both VOD and PVRs also are reflected in Chapter 3 of this report for digital terrestrial, cable, and digital satellite, showing how VOD and PVRs will work together to provide new on-demand services.
Executive Introduction
Ch. 1: Current Markets – Quick Overview
Section A: Satellite
Satellite Continues to Grow But Slower; Small Looks Promising
Section B: Cable
U.S. & European Cable Gain Digital Subs and Lose Analog Subs for Small Net Gain
Example: How U.S. Cable Has to Save Core Video Business.
U.S. & European Cable Continue Down Path of Triple-Play
Video On-Demand – U.S./Canada Cable
Video On-Demand – Asia Cable
China
India & Korea
Japan & Australia
Section C: DTT (Digital Terrestrial)
DTT (Digital Terrestrial) – U.S./Canada
DTT Still on Slow-growth Until Digital Must Carry (DMC) Issues Resolved
DTT – Europe
German DTT Experiment
DTT – Asia
Telco Video is Nascent and Sprouting Worldwide
Ch. 2: Market Drivers by carrier
Cable vs. Satellite – Triple-Play #1
Triple-Play #2
On-Demand Future for Cable
Individualized Channels or Pay Per Channel
Individualized Choice in Programming
North American Cable After 2005
Drivers of Cable vs. Large Telcos (RBOCs)
Drivers of Cable Telephony: VOIP – Triple-Play #3/3
Drivers of Satellite Video
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – U.S.
Example of an Overlooked Population
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – Europe
DTT: Digital Terrestrial Drivers – Asia
Conclusion: Hybrid STBs & Sticky Services
Ch. 3: Market Size by Carrier
Introduction
Background
Hardware Trends
Summary of STB Market Drivers
North America (U.S./Canada)
Review of “Powell Mandate”
Review of CEA/CEMA Plug N Play
Why HD is a Wild Card
Europe: Digital Cable, DTH, DTT Households – 2003-2005
Asia
Digital Cable Background
China
DTH/Digital Cable - India & Korea
DTH/Digital Cable - Japan & Australia
DTT and DTH - China
DTH - China: When The Time is Right
DTT - China: On Hold
STB Suppliers to Japan, Korea, Australia (DTH, Digital Cable, DTT)
Partnerships and Pricing in Asia
Latin America
South Africa
Worldwide Overview
PVR and VOD Household & RPU
Ch. 4: Future trends and Opportunities
Section A: Cable
Just in Time Concept Comes to Multi-Channel Cable (2005-2015)
Opportunities for Advanced Cable Systems and DSL/Telco/IP
Cable: VOD and Triple-Play Service Add-ons in North America and Europe.
China Cable: Fast Growth in Key Provinces Tied to 2008 Olympics.
Opportunity for Increased Role of DRM
Section B: Satellite/DTH
Opportunities in Satellite Storage: Stream or Burst
HD – DVD A Key to HD Transmission (DTH, Cable, DTT)
Opportunities for Growth in Small DTH Systems
Large Satellite/DTH Systems – 2005-2010
Why Long-Form Video Will Avoid “Napsterization.”
Section C: Digital Terrestrial (DTT)
Opportunities for Digital Terrestrial – First the West, then Asia
Conclusion
On-Demand or Enhanced TV Here to Stay
Chicken and Egg Solution
Appendix I: Company Profiles
1.0 Hardware (Key Components)
1.1 Broadcom Corporation
1.2 C-Cube Microsystems, Inc. (LSI Logic)
1.3 CacheVision, Inc.
1.4 Intel Architecture Group/Home Products Group
1.5 Motorola Consumer Broadcast Operations (Semiconductor Products Sector)
1.6 National Semiconductor Corporation
1.7 TriMedia Technologies
1.8 SandCraft, Inc.
1.9 SCM Microsystems, Inc.
2.0 Hardware (STB Systems) – Multi-channel Video Systems
2.1 Hughes Network Systems
2.2 Motorola, Inc./Broadband Communications Sector (BCS)
2.3 Pace Micro Technology PLC
2.4 Panasonic Technologies, Inc.
2.5 Pioneer Corporation
2.6 Royal Philips Electronics NV
2.7 Scientific Atlanta, Inc.
2.8 Sony Corporation
2.9 Thomson Multimedia S.A.
2.10 Advanced Digital Broadcast, Limited
2.11 Digeo
3.0 Hardware (STB Systems) – PVR Systems (Standalone)
3.1 ReplayTV, Inc.
3.2 TiVo, Inc.
4.0 Operating Systems/Middleware
4.1 Liberate Technologies, Inc.
4.2 Metabyte Networks, Inc.
4.3 Microsoft TV
4.4 NDS Group PLC
4.5 OpenTV, Inc.
4.6 PowerTV, Inc.
4.7 Wind River Systems, Inc.
5.0 Digital Video Content Developers – ITV/ETV/EPG Developers
5.1 Gemstar-TV Guide International, Inc.
5.2 National Broadcasting Company, Inc.
5.3 The Weather Channel, Inc.
5.4 Wink Communications, Inc.
6.0 Digital Video Content Developers – VOD Suppliers
6.1 Concurrent Computer Corporation
6.2 DIVA Systems Corporation
6.3 nCube Corporation
6.4 SeaChange Corporation
Appendix II: DTT Global Television Signal Transmission Standards - Background
Appendix III: ROI Analysis
Scenario #1 – Digital STB Upgrade or Replacement
ROI for DTH STB and Receiver — Cost of New Subscriber
ROI for Basic STB (Digital Cable) Upgrade for Current Sub
Scenario #2 ROI Analysis of VOD Using PVRs During Off-Hours
Cable
Revenue Potential Excellent Based on Investment
ROI: 64 Channels – 10 Viewers/Movie
ROI for TS/VOD for DTH
ROI Discussion: USE of TS/VOD on DTH Network
Revenue Potential for 4 to 64 Channels Usage
Appendix IV: North American VOD Trials and Deployments
Appendix V: Interest in Digital Features – Total Urban Cable and Satellite Subscribers
Charts:
Chart 1.1: DigiCable + VOD Subs - North America – 2002-2005
Chart 2.1: Bandwidth Capacity Growth vs. Storage Capacity Growth
Chart 3.1: Digital Cable, DTH, and DTT Households – North America – 2002-2005
Chart 3.2: DigiCable, DTH, and DTT Subscriptions – Canada – 2002-2005
Chart 3.3: DigiCable, DTH, and DTT Subscriptions – U.S. – 2002-2005
Chart 3.4: New STB Units By Carrier – North America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.5: Multi-carrier STB Sales – North America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.6: Digital Households By Carrier – North America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.7: Grand Total Digital Households – Europe – 2002-2005
Chart 3.8: Grand Total Installed Base Digital STBs – Europe – 2002-2005
Chart 3.9: New STB Units By Carrier - Europe – 2002-2005
Chart 3.10: Multi-carrier STB Sales - Europe – 2002-2005
Chart 3.11: Digital Households By Carrier – Europe - 2002-2005
Chart 3.12: New STB Units By Carrier – Asia – 2002-2005
Chart 3.13: Multi-carrier STB Sales - Asia – 2002-2005
Chart 3.14: Digital Households By Carrier – Asia - 2002-2005
Chart 3.15: New DTH STB Units – Latin America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.16: DTH STB Sales – Latin America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.17: DTH STB Subs – Latin America - 2002-2005
Chart 3.18: New STB Units – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.19: STB Sales – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.20: DTH STB Subs – South Africa - 2002-2005
Chart 3.21: Grand Total STB Sales – 2002-2005
Chart III.1: DTH Break-Even Point (with Installation)
Chart III.2: Digital Cable Break-Even Point (with Installation)
Chart III.3: Digital Cable – VOD – Ten Viewers/Movie (64 Channels)
Chart III.4: Digital Cable VOD Streams – 1 Viewer/Movie (64 Channels)
Chart III.5: DTH TS/VOD – 1 View/Movie (64 Channel)
Chart III.6: DTH TS/VOD – 10 Viewers/Movie (64 Channels)
Illustrations:
Illustration 1.1: HD Drivers North America
Illustration 1.2: Toothpick Glasses (TPG): Now Required for PVR Owners
Illustration 2.1: Triple-Play Line-Up #1
Illustration 2.2: VOD Communication Topography – Old to New
Illustration 2.3: Hybrid DTH + DTT STB – 2008
Illustration 2.4: Hybrid Digital Cable + DTT, Plug N Play – 2004-2006
Illustration 3.1: Dual Design Requirement
Illustration 3.2: Integrated Chip Design With Front End Functions
Illustration 3.3: Personalization Pyramid
Illustration 3.4: DTT STB Drivers
Illustration 3.5: HD Drivers – North America – 2003-2008
Illustration 4.1: Multi-channel vs. IP Video
Illustration 4.2: Interim IP Video – Cable = Gig E to Hub
Illustration 4.3: VOD Communication Topography – Old to New
Illustration 4.4: Triple-Play #2 – U.S. Cable, Then Europe & Asia
Illustration 4.5: “Plug N Play” Integrated STB – U.S. Cable + DTT
Illustration 4.6: IP Video Leap Frogs M-Channel in Cable
Illustration 4.7: Chicken and Egg
Tables:
Table 1.1: Broadband Subscription vs. Digital Subscription – 2001-2002
Table 1.2: Top Things Comcast Can/Should Do
Table 2.1: Personalization Functions – Print vs. Digital Video
Table 2.2: Multi-channel Broadcast Video vs. IP Video
Table 2.3: Off-Air TV Households With No Satellite or Cable – U.S., Europe, & Asia
Table 3.1: Levels of Enhanced TV (ETV)
Table 3.2: Overview of Digital Television Households - North America – 2002-2005
Table 3.3: U.S. TV Integrated Tennis Match (Cable/DTT)
Table 3.4: DigiCable, DTH and DTT Households - Canada/U.S. - 2002-2005
Table 3.5: STB Units/Revenue for DTH, DigiCable, and DTT - North America - 2002-2005
Table 3.6: North America TV sales/year by size-including NTSC & ATSC Tuners – 2003-2007
Table 3.7: Overview of Digital Multi-channel Subscribers – Europe – 2002-2005
Table 3.8: Digital Cable Subs & STB Unit/Revenue Sales – Europe - 2002-2005
Table 3.9: Digital Cable/ DTH - Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Australia) – 2002-2005
Table 3.10: Digital Cable and DTH - India & Korea – 2002-2005
Table 3.11: DTH Households – Latin America - 2002-2005
Table 3.12: DTH Households - South Africa – 2002-2005
Table 3.13: Total Worldwide STB Unit/Revenue Forecast – 2002-2005
Table 4.1: Bit Rate/Home Migration – U.S. Cable (with QAM + MPEG4) 6
Table 4.2: Storage/Memory Capacity – DTH (Satellite) STB/PVR
Table 4.3: Integrated PVRs vs. Centralized Storage – North America (by percent of caching)
Table II.1: DTH Worldwide Digital and Analog Television Transmission and Modulation Standards
Table III.1: Basic ROI Schedule – Digital DTH STB (U.S.)
Table III.2: Basic ROI Schedule – Digital Cable STB (U.S.)
Table III.3: ROI Based on Channel TS/VOD Allocation for Cable (Annual)
Table III.4: ROI Based on Channel Allocation for DTH
The worldwide growth of digital STBs (Settop Boxes) for cable, DTH (satellite), and DTT (digital terrestrial) should exceed 29.5 million new units in 2005, driving the digital video subscriber base (worldwide) to over 126 million and annual STB sales revenue to $7.34 billion.
The new study, Home Gateway Report: Worldwide Multi-Carrier Digital Settop & Services Analysis & Forecast – 2003-2006 reflects how digitization, storage, networking, and distribution of video content has grown beyond regionalism to reach an international scope.
As a result of this trend toward a new kind of multi-carrier economics for video services, consumers are now faced with a vast array of choices including High Definition (HD), Personal Video Recorders (PVRs), Video-on-Demand (VOD), and multiple digital video services. Behind most changes are the huge quality and cost-enhancements made in Internet Protocol (IP), Gigabit Ethernet, video servers, storage, and compression.
All are driven by consumer demand for more personalized (or on-demand) video services.
“This unique analysis provides carrier-by-carrier digital subscriber market size, market drivers, future trends, and opportunities for North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, and South Africa,” states Gary Schultz, CEO of MRG, Inc. “There are ample short- and long-term opportunities and rewards for cable, DTH, and DTT for those with the foresight to exploit them.” Some examples of opportunities include improved copyright protection for (multi-carrier) remote access; improved channel clustering for customers to pay only for what they want; enhanced Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) and IP distribution architectures, 1,000-hour PVRs, and others.
By also showing ROI scenarios for digital cable, satellite and terrestrial carriers, the report reveals how digital cable can reverse its loss of subscribers (or “churn”) to satellite; and how almost any carrier can reach profitability within 12 months by transmitting VOD over unused bandwidth to home PVRs.
The report also includes profiles of over 35 industry innovators such as Broadcom, Intel, Motorola, Hughes, Pace, Pioneer, Sony, Thomson, TiVo, Liberate, Microsoft TV, NDS, OpenTV, NBC, Concurrent, SeaChange, and many others.
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