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The WiMAX Report: Emergence of Fixed & Mobile Solutions


Description: The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention and hype.

Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G work until the IEEE approved the 802.16e standard for mobile WiMAX in December 2005. Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or 802.16-2004) equipment in January 2006.

With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years.

Scope & Structure Companies Mentioned Forecast Data Available from this Report
The report addresses the following key issues:
- What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary?
- What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G?
- Which manufacturers are leading 4G development?
- How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level?
- What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under different penetration scenarios?

Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates, installations, and equipment sales.

This report should be of interest to:
- Fixed network operators
- Wireless network operators
- Wireless Internet Service Providers
- Equipment suppliers
- Component suppliers
- Venture Capital funds


Contents: Chapter 1 – Executive Summary
1.1 Technological Comparison
1.2 Comparative Technology Costs
1.3 3G Market Overview
1.3.1 Lack of Demand
1.3.2 Other Challenges
1.4 4G Market Overview
1.4.1 Demand for High-Speed Multimedia Services
1.4.2 Fixed-Mobile Convergence
1.4.3 Spectrum Issues
1.4.4 Standards & Certification Issues
1.4.5 Technological Challenges
1.4.6 Alternative Applications for 4G
1.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
1.5.1 Market Share Forecasts
1.5.2 Manufacturer Strategies
1.5.3 Network Operator Strategies
1.5.4 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
1.6 Forecasts
1.6.1 Mobile Markets
1.6.2 Demand for 2G, 3G, & 4G (Fixed & Mobile)

Chapter 2 – Introduction & Methodology
2.1 Purpose of the Report
2.2 Report Scope
2.2.1 Technologies Covered
2.2.2 Geographic Coverage
2.2.3 Companies Mentioned in this Report
2.2.4 Report Structure
2.3 Methodology
2.3.1 Data Sources
2.3.2 Analysis
2.3.3 Presentation of Results

Chapter 3 – Technology Comparison
3.1 Evolution of Mobile Technologies
3.1.1 First Generation (1G) Mobile Technologies
3.1.2 Second Generation (2G) Mobile Technologies
3.1.3 Second Generation Enhanced (2.5G)
3.1.4 Third Generation (3G)
3.1.5 Fourth Generation (4G)
3.2 3G Wireless Technologies in Detail
3.2.1 Standards Bodies
3.2.2 Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS)
3.2.3 High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA)
3.2.4 CDMA EV-DO
3.3 4G Wireless Technologies in Detail
3.3.1 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM)
3.3.2 WiMAX
3.3.3 WiBro
3.3.4 Wi-Fi
3.3.5 FLO Qualcomm
3.4 Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
3.4.1 Technological Parameters
3.4.2 Cost Comparison

Chapter 4 – Market Dynamics
4.1 3G Wireless Technology Deployment & Current Penetration
4.1.1 UMTS
4.1.2 HSDPA
4.1.3 CDMA EV-DO
4.2 Challenges Facing 3G Wireless Technology
4.2.1 High Costs
4.2.2 Uncertain Demand
4.2.3 Firmly entrenched 2G networks
4.2.4 Pressure from 4G / advanced networks
4.2.5 Technological challenges
4.2.6 Slow demand growth
4.3 4G Wireless Technology Development Status
4.3.1 4G Development Drivers
4.3.2 4G Development Challenges
4.3.3 Standards Update
4.4 WiMAX in Broadband Wireless Systems
4.4.1 WiMAX in Fixed Broadband Wireless Access
4.4.2 WiMAX in Wi-Fi Backhaul
4.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Wireless Technologies
4.5.1 Quantitative Methodology & Assumptions
4.5.2 North America
4.5.3 Europe
4.5.4 Asia Pacific

Chapter 5 – Major 4G Initiatives
5.1 Supply Side Developments – Manufacturers’ Initiatives
5.1.1 Classification of WiMAX Equipment Manufacturers
5.1.2 Significant Manufacturer-Led Initiatives
5.2 Demand Side Developments – Global Trends
5.2.1 Complemetarity vs. Competitivity
5.2.2 Different Applications in Different Markets
5.2.3 Pre-Commercialisation Trials
5.3 Current Developments
5.3.1 WiMAX
5.3.2 FLASH-OFDM & Qualcomm FLO
5.4 3G/4G Strategic Trends in North America
5.4.1 Mobile Operators
5.4.2 Wireless Internet Service Providers
5.4.3 Wireline Operators
5.4.4 Strategic Drivers
5.5 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Europe
5.5.1 Mobile Operators
5.5.2 WISPs & Wireline Operators
5.5.3 New Entrants
5.5.4 Strategic Drivers
5.6 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Asia Pacific
5.6.1. Regional Heterogeneity
5.6.2 OEM Leadership
5.6.3 Market Segmentation
5.6.4 Strategic Drivers
5.7 Conclusions
5.7.1 Regional Similarities & Differences
5.7.2 Global Spectrum Harmonisation
5.7.3 Market Segmentation
5.7.4 Our Predictions

Chapter 6 – Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis
6.1 Fixed WiMAX as Backhaul Technology in Mobile Networks: Market Opportunity Forecast
6.1.1 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Techniques
6.1.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
6.1.3 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Market Opportunity
6.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Scenario Analysis by Region
6.2.1 North America
6.2.3 Asia Pacific
6.3 Bandwidth Demand Analysis: Network Requirements
6.3.1 Bandwidth Demand Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions
6.3.2 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in North America
6.3.3 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Europe
6.3.4 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Asia Pacific

Chapter 7 – Conclusions
7.1 Comparative Technology Costs
7.2 4G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
7.2.1 Drivers
7.2.2 Constraints
7.3 3G Network Development Drivers & Constraints
7.4 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G
7.4.1 Global Themes
7.4.2 Regional Themes
7.5 Forecasts

APPENDIX 1 – Assumed Mobile Subscriber Usage Patterns

Exhibit 1.1: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
Exhibit 1.2: Worldwide Growth of 3G UMTS Subscribers
Exhibit 1.3: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
Exhibit 1.4: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios
Exhibit 1.5: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
Exhibit 1.6: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
Exhibit 1.7: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios
Exhibit 1.8: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 1.9: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 1.10: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 2.1: Mobile Telecom Technologies Covered in this Report
Exhibit 2.2: Countries included in Regional Analysis
Exhibit 2.3: Companies Mentioned in this Report
Exhibit 2.4: Forecast Data Available from this Report
Exhibit 3.1: Evolution of Wireless Technology
Exhibit 3.2: UMTS Architecture 3.7
Exhibit 3.3: HSDPA Architecture
Exhibit 3.4: CDMA 1xEV-DO Architecture
Exhibit 3.5: Frequency Division Multiplexing
Exhibit 3.6: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
Exhibit 3.7: WiMAX Network
Exhibit 3.8: IEEE 802.11 Specifications
Exhibit 3.9: Typical Wi-Fi Network
Exhibit 3.10: FLO Network Architecture
Exhibit 3.11: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies
Exhibit 4.1: Worldwide Growth of UMTS Subscribers
Exhibit 4.2: Regional Breakdown of UMTS Subscribers (December 2004)
Exhibit 4.3: UMTS Network Status – Deployed
Exhibit 4.4: HSDPA Network Status (Planned/Deployment underway)
Exhibit 4.5: Worldwide Growth of CDMA EV-DO Subscribers
Exhibit 4.6: Regional Breakdown of CDMA (2000 1x and EV-DO) Subscribers (December 2004)
Exhibit 4.7: CDMA EV-DO Network Status
Exhibit 4.8: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment
Exhibit 4.9: Evolution of WiMAX Standards and Applications
Exhibit 4.10: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 4.11: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 4.12 Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in North America across Scenarios
Exhibit 4.13: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 4.14: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 4.15: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Europe across Scenarios
Exhibit 4.16: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 4.17: Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 4.18: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios
Exhibit 5.1: Classification of Equipment Manufacturers
Exhibit 5.2: WiMAX Forum Certified Products
Exhibit 6.1: Gompertz Curve
Exhibit 6.2: Fisher-Pry Model S-Curve
Exhibit 6.3: Normal Distribution Curve & Equation
Exhibit 6.4: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers
Exhibit 6.5: Methodology for Estimation of BTS Units
Exhibit 6.6: Trends in Average BTS cost (per unit) 2006-10
Exhibit 6.7: Forecast Combined Mobile Subscriber Population in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10
Exhibit 6.8: Forecast Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rate in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10
Exhibit 6.9: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions)
Exhibit 6.10: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10
Exhibit 6.11: WiMAX Penetration Scenarios in North America
Exhibit 6.12: WiMAX BTS Installations in North America
Exhibit 6.13: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in North America
Exhibit 6.14: WiMAX Penetration in Europe
Exhibit 6.15: WiMAX BTS Installations in Europe
Exhibit 6.16: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Europe
Exhibit 6.17: WiMAX Penetration in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.18: WiMAX BTS Installations in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.19: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.20: Comparison of WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios
Exhibit 6.21: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers by Technology
Exhibit 6.22: Optimal Mobile Application Bandwidth Requirements
Exhibit 6.23: Optimal Bandwidth for ‘Other’ Future Applications
Exhibit 6.24: Scenario Analysis of Forecast 4G Penetration Rates
Exhibit 6.25: Assumed Usage Patterns for 2G, 3G, & 4G Mobile Subscribers
Exhibit 6.26: Estimation of Total Bandwidth Requirement of an Average Subscriber
Exhibit 6.27: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 6.28: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 6.29: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America
Exhibit 6.30: North American 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.31: North American 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.32: North American 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.33: Forecast North American 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.34: Forecast North American 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.35: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.37: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 6.38: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe
Exhibit 6.39: European 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.40: European 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.41: European 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.42: Forecast European 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.43: Forecast European 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.44: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.45: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.46: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.47: Forecast Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific
Exhibit 6.48: Asia Pacific 2G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.49: Asia Pacific 3G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.50: Asia Pacific 4G Subscriber Forecast
Exhibit 6.51: Total Asia Pacific 2G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.52: Total Asia Pacific 3G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.53: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand
Exhibit 6.54: Our Forecast of Mobile Bandwidth Demand by Region and Technology 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario)
Exhibit 6.55: Our Forecast
Exhibit 6.56: Our Forecast Bandwidth Demand CAGR’s by Technology and Region 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario)
Exhibit A1.1: Usage Patterns for 2G Subscribers
Exhibit A1.2: Usage Patterns for 3G Subscribers




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