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The WiMAX Report: Emergence of Fixed & Mobile Solutions
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Description: |
The evolution of 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile telecommunications technologies has been researched and written about ad infinitum. More recently, the topic of WiMAX, a particular 4G technology which promises to deliver 70 Mb/s data speeds over a 50 km radius, has been the focus of much attention and hype.
Many telecom analysts had come to the conclusion that 4G was just a distraction from making 3G work until the IEEE approved the 802.16e standard for mobile WiMAX in December 2005. Subsequently, the WiMAX Forum announced the first certified fixed WiMAX (802.16d or 802.16-2004) equipment in January 2006.
With this new found credibility, manufacturers and network operators are looking again at the benefits promised by 4G technologies and they are starting to invest serious time and effort in developing fixed and mobile products which should be commercialized within the next three years.
Scope & Structure Companies Mentioned Forecast Data Available from this Report The report addresses the following key issues: - What are the dynamics between 3G & 4G - competing or complimentary? - What are the standards and regulatory issues in 4G? - Which manufacturers are leading 4G development? - How are carriers approaching the 4G issue at a strategic level? - What would be the impact of 4G on networks, in terms of bandwidth requirements, under different penetration scenarios?
Thus, the overall purpose of this report is to give the reader some fresh perspectives on the issue of 4G by looking at this technology, not as an isolated phenomenon, but as part of an ongoing technological evolution and to provide some ground-breaking analysis in terms of average user bandwidth demand, as well as the usual measurements of subscribers, penetration rates, installations, and equipment sales.
This report should be of interest to: - Fixed network operators - Wireless network operators - Wireless Internet Service Providers - Equipment suppliers - Component suppliers - Venture Capital funds |
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Contents: |
Chapter 1 – Executive Summary 1.1 Technological Comparison 1.2 Comparative Technology Costs 1.3 3G Market Overview 1.3.1 Lack of Demand 1.3.2 Other Challenges 1.4 4G Market Overview 1.4.1 Demand for High-Speed Multimedia Services 1.4.2 Fixed-Mobile Convergence 1.4.3 Spectrum Issues 1.4.4 Standards & Certification Issues 1.4.5 Technological Challenges 1.4.6 Alternative Applications for 4G 1.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G 1.5.1 Market Share Forecasts 1.5.2 Manufacturer Strategies 1.5.3 Network Operator Strategies 1.5.4 Global Spectrum Harmonisation 1.6 Forecasts 1.6.1 Mobile Markets 1.6.2 Demand for 2G, 3G, & 4G (Fixed & Mobile)
Chapter 2 – Introduction & Methodology 2.1 Purpose of the Report 2.2 Report Scope 2.2.1 Technologies Covered 2.2.2 Geographic Coverage 2.2.3 Companies Mentioned in this Report 2.2.4 Report Structure 2.3 Methodology 2.3.1 Data Sources 2.3.2 Analysis 2.3.3 Presentation of Results
Chapter 3 – Technology Comparison 3.1 Evolution of Mobile Technologies 3.1.1 First Generation (1G) Mobile Technologies 3.1.2 Second Generation (2G) Mobile Technologies 3.1.3 Second Generation Enhanced (2.5G) 3.1.4 Third Generation (3G) 3.1.5 Fourth Generation (4G) 3.2 3G Wireless Technologies in Detail 3.2.1 Standards Bodies 3.2.2 Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) 3.2.3 High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) 3.2.4 CDMA EV-DO 3.3 4G Wireless Technologies in Detail 3.3.1 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) 3.3.2 WiMAX 3.3.3 WiBro 3.3.4 Wi-Fi 3.3.5 FLO Qualcomm 3.4 Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies 3.4.1 Technological Parameters 3.4.2 Cost Comparison
Chapter 4 – Market Dynamics 4.1 3G Wireless Technology Deployment & Current Penetration 4.1.1 UMTS 4.1.2 HSDPA 4.1.3 CDMA EV-DO 4.2 Challenges Facing 3G Wireless Technology 4.2.1 High Costs 4.2.2 Uncertain Demand 4.2.3 Firmly entrenched 2G networks 4.2.4 Pressure from 4G / advanced networks 4.2.5 Technological challenges 4.2.6 Slow demand growth 4.3 4G Wireless Technology Development Status 4.3.1 4G Development Drivers 4.3.2 4G Development Challenges 4.3.3 Standards Update 4.4 WiMAX in Broadband Wireless Systems 4.4.1 WiMAX in Fixed Broadband Wireless Access 4.4.2 WiMAX in Wi-Fi Backhaul 4.5 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G Wireless Technologies 4.5.1 Quantitative Methodology & Assumptions 4.5.2 North America 4.5.3 Europe 4.5.4 Asia Pacific
Chapter 5 – Major 4G Initiatives 5.1 Supply Side Developments – Manufacturers’ Initiatives 5.1.1 Classification of WiMAX Equipment Manufacturers 5.1.2 Significant Manufacturer-Led Initiatives 5.2 Demand Side Developments – Global Trends 5.2.1 Complemetarity vs. Competitivity 5.2.2 Different Applications in Different Markets 5.2.3 Pre-Commercialisation Trials 5.3 Current Developments 5.3.1 WiMAX 5.3.2 FLASH-OFDM & Qualcomm FLO 5.4 3G/4G Strategic Trends in North America 5.4.1 Mobile Operators 5.4.2 Wireless Internet Service Providers 5.4.3 Wireline Operators 5.4.4 Strategic Drivers 5.5 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Europe 5.5.1 Mobile Operators 5.5.2 WISPs & Wireline Operators 5.5.3 New Entrants 5.5.4 Strategic Drivers 5.6 3G/4G Strategic Trends in Asia Pacific 5.6.1. Regional Heterogeneity 5.6.2 OEM Leadership 5.6.3 Market Segmentation 5.6.4 Strategic Drivers 5.7 Conclusions 5.7.1 Regional Similarities & Differences 5.7.2 Global Spectrum Harmonisation 5.7.3 Market Segmentation 5.7.4 Our Predictions
Chapter 6 – Technology Penetration and Bandwidth Demand Analysis 6.1 Fixed WiMAX as Backhaul Technology in Mobile Networks: Market Opportunity Forecast 6.1.1 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Techniques 6.1.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions 6.1.3 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Market Opportunity 6.2 WiMAX in Mobile Backhaul: Scenario Analysis by Region 6.2.1 North America 6.2.3 Asia Pacific 6.3 Bandwidth Demand Analysis: Network Requirements 6.3.1 Bandwidth Demand Forecast Model Methodology and Assumptions 6.3.2 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in North America 6.3.3 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Europe 6.3.4 Forecast Network Bandwidth Requirements in Asia Pacific
Chapter 7 – Conclusions 7.1 Comparative Technology Costs 7.2 4G Network Development Drivers & Constraints 7.2.1 Drivers 7.2.2 Constraints 7.3 3G Network Development Drivers & Constraints 7.4 Prospects for Future Deployment of 3G and 4G 7.4.1 Global Themes 7.4.2 Regional Themes 7.5 Forecasts
APPENDIX 1 – Assumed Mobile Subscriber Usage Patterns
Exhibit 1.1: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies Exhibit 1.2: Worldwide Growth of 3G UMTS Subscribers Exhibit 1.3: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment Exhibit 1.4: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios Exhibit 1.5: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions) Exhibit 1.6: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10 Exhibit 1.7: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios Exhibit 1.8: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 1.9: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 1.10: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 2.1: Mobile Telecom Technologies Covered in this Report Exhibit 2.2: Countries included in Regional Analysis Exhibit 2.3: Companies Mentioned in this Report Exhibit 2.4: Forecast Data Available from this Report Exhibit 3.1: Evolution of Wireless Technology Exhibit 3.2: UMTS Architecture 3.7 Exhibit 3.3: HSDPA Architecture Exhibit 3.4: CDMA 1xEV-DO Architecture Exhibit 3.5: Frequency Division Multiplexing Exhibit 3.6: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Exhibit 3.7: WiMAX Network Exhibit 3.8: IEEE 802.11 Specifications Exhibit 3.9: Typical Wi-Fi Network Exhibit 3.10: FLO Network Architecture Exhibit 3.11: Technological Comparison of 3G and 4G Technologies Exhibit 4.1: Worldwide Growth of UMTS Subscribers Exhibit 4.2: Regional Breakdown of UMTS Subscribers (December 2004) Exhibit 4.3: UMTS Network Status – Deployed Exhibit 4.4: HSDPA Network Status (Planned/Deployment underway) Exhibit 4.5: Worldwide Growth of CDMA EV-DO Subscribers Exhibit 4.6: Regional Breakdown of CDMA (2000 1x and EV-DO) Subscribers (December 2004) Exhibit 4.7: CDMA EV-DO Network Status Exhibit 4.8: Global Frequency Bands for WiMAX Deployment Exhibit 4.9: Evolution of WiMAX Standards and Applications Exhibit 4.10: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 4.11: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 4.12 Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in North America across Scenarios Exhibit 4.13: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 4.14: Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 4.15: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Europe across Scenarios Exhibit 4.16: Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 4.17: Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 4.18: Comparison of Forecast 2G, 3G, & 4G Penetration Rates in Asia Pacific across Scenarios Exhibit 5.1: Classification of Equipment Manufacturers Exhibit 5.2: WiMAX Forum Certified Products Exhibit 6.1: Gompertz Curve Exhibit 6.2: Fisher-Pry Model S-Curve Exhibit 6.3: Normal Distribution Curve & Equation Exhibit 6.4: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers Exhibit 6.5: Methodology for Estimation of BTS Units Exhibit 6.6: Trends in Average BTS cost (per unit) 2006-10 Exhibit 6.7: Forecast Combined Mobile Subscriber Population in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10 Exhibit 6.8: Forecast Mobile Subscriber Penetration Rate in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2004-10 Exhibit 6.9: Regional Mobile Subscriber Forecast (Millions) Exhibit 6.10: Forecast BTS Installations in North America, Europe, & Asia Pacific 2005-10 Exhibit 6.11: WiMAX Penetration Scenarios in North America Exhibit 6.12: WiMAX BTS Installations in North America Exhibit 6.13: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in North America Exhibit 6.14: WiMAX Penetration in Europe Exhibit 6.15: WiMAX BTS Installations in Europe Exhibit 6.16: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Europe Exhibit 6.17: WiMAX Penetration in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.18: WiMAX BTS Installations in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.19: WiMAX BTS Equipment Sales Revenue in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.20: Comparison of WiMAX growth in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific under Different Growth Scenarios Exhibit 6.21: Methodology for Estimation of Mobile Subscribers by Technology Exhibit 6.22: Optimal Mobile Application Bandwidth Requirements Exhibit 6.23: Optimal Bandwidth for ‘Other’ Future Applications Exhibit 6.24: Scenario Analysis of Forecast 4G Penetration Rates Exhibit 6.25: Assumed Usage Patterns for 2G, 3G, & 4G Mobile Subscribers Exhibit 6.26: Estimation of Total Bandwidth Requirement of an Average Subscriber Exhibit 6.27: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.28: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.29: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in North America Exhibit 6.30: North American 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.31: North American 3G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.32: North American 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.33: Forecast North American 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.34: Forecast North American 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.35: Forecast North American 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.37: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 6.38: Forecast Penetration of 4G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Europe Exhibit 6.39: European 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.40: European 3G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.41: European 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.42: Forecast European 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.43: Forecast European 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.44: Total European 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.45: Forecast Penetration of 2G Technologies (within Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.46: Forecast Penetration of 3G Technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.47: Forecast Penetration of 4G technologies (within Mobile Subscriber Base) in Asia Pacific Exhibit 6.48: Asia Pacific 2G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.49: Asia Pacific 3G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.50: Asia Pacific 4G Subscriber Forecast Exhibit 6.51: Total Asia Pacific 2G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.52: Total Asia Pacific 3G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.53: Total Asia Pacific 4G Bandwidth Demand Exhibit 6.54: Our Forecast of Mobile Bandwidth Demand by Region and Technology 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario) Exhibit 6.55: Our Forecast Exhibit 6.56: Our Forecast Bandwidth Demand CAGR’s by Technology and Region 2005-10 (Moderate Growth Scenario) Exhibit A1.1: Usage Patterns for 2G Subscribers Exhibit A1.2: Usage Patterns for 3G Subscribers |
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