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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3554519
  • January 2016
  • Region: Bulgaria
  • 61 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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As demand for skilled workers in Bulgaria outpaces supply, wages will continue to rise over the next five years. With substantial levels of urbanisation and ever improving transport networks locally and internationally Bulgaria has an easily accessible and increasingly affluent consumer target market.

However country rewards remain poor and the continued decline of the population size presents risk for retailers.

Opportunities for retail growth will be limited in the medium term to 2019. A lack of impetus to continue with political and economic reforms will dampen investors' enthusiasm, and economic growth is forecast to be sluggish, at 1.0% this year, not rising above 2.0% until after the end of our forecast period. Bulgaria's shaky financial system is under strain as a result of exposure to Greek banks as well as past bankruptcies,
including the default by Corporate Commercial Bank in 2014. Even though Bulgaria's public debt is the second smallest in the EU (27.6% of GDP in 2014; only Estonia has a lower rate), it is struggling to balance its budget. The parliament was seeking to approve the issue of EUR8bn of bonds over the next three years.

Fitch approved new Issuer Default Ratings for Bulgaria in June 2015, assessing its long-term foreign currency debt with BBB- and local currency debt with BBB with a stable outlook. Such ratings may prevent the country from borrowing cheaply in the next five years.

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SWOT

Political

Economic

Industry Forecast

Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Retail Sector Forecast

Food And Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2012-2019)

Macroeconomic Forecasts

Economic Analysis

Industry Risk Reward Index

Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116

Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index

Rewards

Risks

Market Overview

Mass Grocery Retail

Shopping Centres

E-Commerce

Competitive Landscape

Food And Drink

Clothing And Footwear

DIY

Consumer Electronics

Glossary

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sources

Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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