We maintain our forecasts for construction industry value real growth in the UK at 3.5% for 2016. Residential building will drive this growth, although we do not expect that government initiatives will boost output significantly. Several major infrastructure projects are yet to be fully factored into our forecasts due to slow progress on investment decisions, but already the UK has Europe's largest infrastructure project pipeline.
- We forecast that the residential building market will remain buoyant - averaging real growth of 3.2% between 2016 and 2020. Upside risks to our outlook for the residential building segment will emerge in 2018; by 2017 local councils must submit plans to help the government reach its target of building 200,000 starter homes by 2020, or they will be forced to do so by central government.
- Our decision to retain our bullish view on the UK's rail sector despite issues as Network Rail implemented projects under the CP5 spending period, was justified. Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin has subsequently reaffirmed the 2019 completion dates for major projects which were temporarily paused during a review. As such, our real growth forecasts for the rail infrastructure sector remain at an annual average of 10.2% between 2016 and 2019.
- The first capacity auction run by National Grid following the passage of the Energy Bill reached the goal of maintaining and adding 49GW of capacity until 2018/2019, including 2GW of new gas-fired capacity.
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020)
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (United Kingdom 2015-2015)
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Table: UK - 10-Year Construction Forecasts
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (United Kingdom 2014-2024)
Table: Major UK Airport Investments
Table: Transport Projects
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (United Kingdom 2014-2024)
Table: Energy and Utilities Projects
Residential/Non-Residential Construction - Outlook And Overview
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (United Kingdom 2014-2024)
Table: Residential, Non-Residential and Social Infrastructure Projects
Industry Risk Reward Index
United Kingdom - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Western Europe And North America Risk/Reward Index
Table: Western Europe And North America: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Table: Key Players - Financial Data
Table: Carillion Financials
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators