South Africa Mining Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3554562
  • January 2016
  • Region: Africa, South Africa
  • 90 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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South Africa's mining sector will face persistent headwinds due to labour unrest, mineral price weakness, further divestments and retrenchment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
- On December 8 2015, Anglo American announced a restructuring plan that will focus on divestment of non-core and loss-making assets, downsizing its workforce and consolidating business divisions in an effort to weather ongoing commodity price weakness. South Africa's coal industry will be significantly hit by Anglo's restructuring plans as the firm accounts for nearly 21.5% of the country's total thermal coal production. Furthermore, Anglo's plans to cut employment will hit the sector as well, as Anglo employs over 24,500 in their thermal coal operations, while the firm's total employment within South Africa totals 72,000.

- As Anglo American is keen to offload the majority of its South-African assets, this could result in a significant decline in the country's coal production growth. As such, we revised down our 2016 and 2017 coal production forecast from 1.3% to -4.0% and 1.0% to -1.5%, respectively. Despite this, South Africa,
which is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s largest coal producer, with a 94.6% share of regional coal production in 2015, will remain the region's largest coal producer. We forecast South Africa's coal production to grow from 252million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 264mnt in 2019. This would represent average annual growth of 0.1% during 2016-2019, slightly higher than the average 0.9% decline during 2010-2014.

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Table: South Africa Mining Industry Value Forecast

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


Industry Forecast

Coal: Growth To Pick Up Beyond 2017

Latest Updates
Table: Coal Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2020)
Table: South Africa - Major Coal Projects & Expansions

Structural Trends

Gold: Growth To Grind To A Halt

Latest Updates
Table: Gold Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019)

Structural Trends

Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Curb Growth

Latest Updates
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2020)
Table: South Africa - Major New Iron Ore Projects & Expansions

Structural Trends

Platinum: Production Downturn Due To Rising Costs

Latest Updates
Table: South Africa - Platinum Mine Production & Growth (2014-2019)

Structural Trends

Palladium: Sector To Face Numerous Challenges

Latest Updates
Table: Palladium Production (South Africa 2013-2019)
Table: South Africa - Palladium Projects

Structural Trends

Industry Risk Reward Index

South Africa Risk/Reward Index



Africa: Major Risks Remain

Key Takeaways

Latest Revisions
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index

Regulatory Development

Trade & Investment Risk Analysis

South Africa - Mining Industry End Game: Four Potential Scenarios
Table: Mining Sector Scenarios

Commodities Outlook
Table: Commodities Price Forecasts

Competitive Landscape
Table: South Africa - Largest Mining Companies' Financial Data, 2014

Company Profile

Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q1 2016




Latest Results
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data

Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q1 2016
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data

Anglo American - Q1 2016

Company Strategy

Latest Results
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data

Anglo American's Plan: South Africa To Be Hit Hardest
Table: Anglo American - Mines & Projects

Regional Overview

Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes

Key Themes

Chinese Investment To Continue

Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth

Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth

Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP


Industry Forecast Methodology


Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Our Clients

  • Metso Global
  • Orica Limited
  • Exxaro Resources Ltd.
  • Sandvik AB
  • Petrobras
  • Atlas Copco Limited