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Serbia Retail Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3606571
  • January 2016
  • Region: Serbia
  • 63 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Global economic fluctuations, changing consumer demographics and poor governance foster a poor retail outlook for Serbia where high unemployment persists and suppressed household incomes continue to lag behind regional averages in the CEE. Past 2016, however, household incomes, employment and GDP growth will recover and the potential for retail expansion will improve, with communications and tourism offering the greatest prospects. The Serbian economy, which depends heavily on the trade with the EU and Russia, has been suffering since the onset of the financial crisis. The country's output struggled to make any significant gains and unemployment skyrocketed. Many households make conservative decisions in the retail market as a consequence of a 19.5% unemployment rate, which makes almost a fifth of the country's labour force dependent on social welfare.

Economic projections for Serbia indicate that the recovery of the retail market will be delayed: real GDP is projected to rise by only 0.3% and 1.0% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. 2015 has marked a turnaround in the country's growth and monetary stimulus (the central bank cut interest rates six times in the first three quarters of 2015) will put the economy on the right track: real GDP growth is anticipated to average 4.0% during 2017-2019. As a result, the unemployment rate will start declining more rapidly and is forecast reach 15.0% at the end of our five-year forecast period.

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SWOT

Retail SWOT

Political

Economic

Industry Forecast

Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)

Retail Sector Forecast

Food & Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)

Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Serbia 2012-2019)

Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Serbia, 2012-2019)

Household Numbers And Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Serbia 2012-2019)

Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Serbia 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Serbia 2012-2019)

Macroeconomic Forecasts

Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2010-2019)

Industry Risk/Reward Index

Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116

Serbia Risk/Reward Index

Rewards

Risks

Market Overview

Competitive Landscape

Glossary

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sources

Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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