We believe the Vietnamese economic and consumer electronics growth story is resilient and we maintain our bullish medium-term outlook in the Q116 update. Broad-based economic growth is expected to have a positive impact on the household income profile of Vietnam over the medium term, which will deepen the devices market, as well as easing price sensitivity in the higher value replacement market.
Meanwhile, falling average device prices in key device categories will add to device spending growth momentum. We forecast a CAGR of 9.1% for 2016-2019, with even stronger growth expected in the smartphone, tablet, and LED/LCD TV set markets. However, there is downside to this outlook, with a hard landing in China or a broader emerging market debt crisis following rate rises in the US holding the potential to derail our core scenario.
2016 Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Computer Hardware Sales: Growth of 4.0% with total market value reaching USD1.5bn.
- AV Sales: Growth of 8.6% with total market value reaching USD1.2bn.
- Handset Sales: Growth of 8.4% with total sales exceeding USD3.1bn.
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Vietnam 2013-2019)
Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Asia CE Risk/Reward Index - Q116
Table: PC Sales (Vietnam 2013-2019)
Table: AV Sales (Vietnam 2013-2019)
Table: Mobile Communications (Vietnam 2013-2019)
Table: Samsung Electronics
Table: LG Electronics
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Government Authority
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators