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Russia Information Technology Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3608824
  • January 2016
  • Region: Russia
  • 76 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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We have left our forecasts for the Russian IT market unchanged in our Q1 2016 report update after undertaking multiple revisions in 2015. We made multiple downgrades in 2015 to account for the tougher economic climate, international sanctions and the steep depreciation of the rouble against the US dollar. As a result of these conditions, 2014 and 2015 saw a significant contraction in dollar terms. In 2016, we believe the market will begin to grow positively in US dollar terms after two years of massive contraction. Sanctions impact vendors asymmetrically, for instance US vendors are most likely to suffer due to reputational damage, with IT products and solutions increasingly seen through the lens of national security by both the US and the Russian government.

As a result, we expect Chinese server and storage vendors to capitalise on increased demand in Russia, which could also have implications for software vendors over the medium term. We expect growth to return in local currency terms from 2016, but with a more significant acceleration from 2017 onwards as the economic environment becomes more supportive, offering some growth potential in the latter years of our forecast. There is, however, downside risk to this scenario owing to tense US-Russian relations, while political factors also present risks to vendors; for instance, data localization requirements and the government's increased strategic emphasis on achieving technological independence.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Overall IT market Value in 2016: RUB1trn (up5.2% y-o-y)
- Hardware market Value in 2016: RUB490.8bn (up4.1% y-o-y)
- Software Market Value in 2016: RUB203bn (up 3.7% y-o-y)
- IT Services Value in 2016: RUB307.5bn (up 8% y-o-y)

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SWOT

IT SWOT

Industry Forecast
Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2019)

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: Europe IT Risk/Reward Index, Q1 2016

Market Overview

Hardware

Software

Cloud Computing
Table: Russia Cloud Vendor Developments, 2014-2015

Services

Industry Trends And Developments

Regulatory Development
Table: IT Authorities

Competitive Landscape

International Companies
Table: Lenovo
Table: Foxconn
Table: Huawei Technologies

Local Companies
Table: Kaspersky Lab
Table: Mail u

Regional Overview

Europe

Demographic Forecast

Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sources

Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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