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South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • ID: 3608855
  • January 2016
  • Region: Africa, South Africa
  • 87 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Despite a vast shale resource base and prospective deepwater acreage, exploration in South Africa will be subdued by the high cost of drilling, continued bureaucratic hold-ups and a sustained lower oil price environment. Ongoing reform of the country's fiscal and licensing regime adds another layer of uncertainty and the passage of the amended petroleum bill will be key to securing future investments. The downstream sector also faces major headwinds, due to ageing and inefficient refineries, continued fuel price subsidisation and mounting competition abroad.

Latest Updates & Key Trends:
- There has been significant concern surrounding the mineral and petroleum development amendment bill, which was passed by parliament in March 2014. The bill offers the state a 20% free carried stake in all new developments, no limit on state ownership of assets and no clarity regarding the pricing terms for stake acquisition. Investors have voiced concern about potential resource nationalism and asset fire sales.

It is probable that this level of regulatory uncertainty will delay major investment decisions over the short term, posing long-term risk to the upstream oil and gas sector.

- In November 2014, industry regulator Petroleum Agency South Africa announced that it would begin to process pending shale exploration permits, signalling growing political momentum behind shale gas development. However, an unsettled regulatory environment and a period of sustained lower oil prices and tightening global capex may slow progress here. In March 2015, Royal Dutch Shell was the first company to announce cutbacks to planned shale exploration spending in the country and no permits have been issued to-date.

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Table: Headline Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2019)

SWOT

Industry Forecast

Upstream Exploration

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Major International Players In South Africa's Offshore

Upstream Projects
Table: South Africa Upstream Projects

Upstream Production - Oil

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (South Africa 2019-2024)

Upstream Production - Gas

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (South Africa 2019-2024)

Refining

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Africa 2019-2024)

Refined Fuels Consumption

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption- (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption- (South Africa 2019-2024)

Gas Consumption

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (South Africa 2019-2024)

Trade - Oil

Latest Updates

Structural Trends

Crude Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)

Refined Fuels
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)

Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)

Latest Updates

Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Africa 2019-2024)

Industry Risk Reward Index

Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI's Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index

Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index

Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index

South Africa - Risk/Reward Index

Market Overview

South Africa Energy Market Overview

Regulatory Structure

Fiscal Regime
Table: Main Fiscal Terms

Licensing Regime

Licensing Rounds

Oil And Gas Infrastructure

Oil Refineries
Table: South Africa Main Refineries

Oil Pipelines
Table: South Africa Main Oil Pipelines

Oil Trade Facilities
Table: South Africa Main Oil Trading Facilities

Gas Pipelines
Table: South Africa Main Gas Pipelines

Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Oil Storage Main Facilities

Oil Terminals/Ports

Competitive Landscape

Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players

Company Profile

PetroSA

Sasol

Other Summaries

Regional Overview

Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil

Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Source

Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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PetroSA
Sasol

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