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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • ID: 3608859
  • January 2016
  • Region: Ethiopia
  • 64 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the long term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of grains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to El Niño. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely to remain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts
- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugar corporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of the plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

- Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,
although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenya and Uganda.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.5% from 2016 until 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

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SWOT

Agribusiness

Industry Forecast

Sugar Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)

Grains Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2020)

Coffee Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)

Commodities Price Analysis

Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts

Featured Analysis

African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%)

Upstream Analysis

Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region

Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)

Africa Fertiliser Outlook

Regional Overview

Middle East & Africa Regional Overview

Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sector-Specific Methodology

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