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Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • ID: 3608864
  • January 2016
  • Region: Indonesia
  • 94 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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We hold an optimistic outlook towards Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, sugar and palm oil. The country's goal to become self sufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for food and drink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarce agricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice imports in the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched. More worryingly, we expect coffee and cocoa production to record very weak production growth in the coming years.

Key Forecasts
- Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 5.3% to 368,000 tonnes. Production growth will slightly accelerate beyond 2018, as private grinders are slowly developing programmes to improve plantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weak growth.

- Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 30.1% to 12.6mn tonnes. Relatively recent refining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oil in the coming years.

- Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 36.4% to 3.0mn tonnes. The strong growth rate is mainly due to base effects as production declines in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantations will help output grow in the coming years, but production growth will be held back by poor cane recovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.

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SWOT

Agribusiness

Industry Forecast

Rice Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)

Grains Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Indonesia, 2013-2020)

Sugar Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)

Livestock Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)

Coffee Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)

Cocoa Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risk To Outlook
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)

Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) & Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Table: Palm Oil Production & Consumption (Indonesia 2011-2019)

Commodities Price Analysis

Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts

Upstream Analysis

Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares

Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)

Asia Fertiliser Outlook

Downstream Analysis

Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)

Canned Food

Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2012-2019)

Regional Overview
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops

Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies

Demographic Forecast

Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sector-Specific Methodology

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Our Clients

  • ConAgra Foods, Inc.
  • Monsanto Company
  • Cargill, Incorporated
  • Agrium Inc.
  • Archer Daniels Midland Company
  • BASF SE