We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, will prove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium-to-long term. This will be supportive for both the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular will benefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demand and relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due to low prices on the international market. We believe prices will pick up again in 2016.
- Milk production growth to 2018/19: 3% to 23.5mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumption base and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from export opportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairy consumption growth over our forecast period.
- Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 13% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments,
export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.
- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.5%, same as 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.
Table: New Zealand - Liquid Milk Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (New Zealand 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn)
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology