We downgraded our estimate for IT market growth in 2015 to reflect the extent of forint depreciation, and although conditions will ease in 2016 the forint and weak confidence levels will continue to be challenging for vendors. The medium term-outlook is considerably stronger stronger, however, and
The report predicts a faster growth trajectory from 2017 across all three market segments. Forint depreciation and household income growth has the potential to ease price sensitivity in the retail hardware market, while enterprise modernisation and rationalisation will drive faster growth for software and services spending. We forecast IT spending will increase at a CAGR of 5.6% 2016-2020 to HUF679.1bn. Risks are weighted to the downside, and global economic headwinds or political developments at the regional and national level could undermine the IT market growth outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: HUF210bn in 2016 to HUF249bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% in local currency terms. Weak performance expected in 2016, but purchasing power growth from 2017 should see the market accelerate, with deferred purchases from 2015 and 2016 adding to momentum.
- Software Sales: HUF114bn in 2016 to HUF140bn in 2019, a CAGR of 5.0%. The report predicts demand growth for enterprise applications as lower cost cloud models deepen the market and large enterprises modernise.
- IT Services Sales: HUF212bn in 2016 to HUF291bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.6%. IT services growth expected to outperform based on the strength of enterprise demand for cost-saving solutions such as outsourcing and cloud computing.
Table: IT IndustryHistorical Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Table: IT RRI Score Breakdown By Region, Q216
Table: Europe IT Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016
Table: Public Sector- IT Spending (HUFbn)
Industry Trends And Developments 42
Table: Public Sector- ICT Investments And Expenditure (HUFmn)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural PopulationLife Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group(Hungary 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components