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Uganda Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

  • ID: 3616110
  • February 2016
  • Region: Uganda
  • 57 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main crops in Uganda. For coffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely owing to government support for the sector and new disease-resistant trees. Moreover, coffee prices are higher y-o-y, meaning farmers will be able to invest in their crops. The report predicts Uganda to remain a net corn exporter in the coming years, although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country is unlikely to compete with South Africa and Zambia to become one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn exporters. Food security will be of concern in the short term owing to droughts affecting regional neighbours, leading to more corn exports and reduced domestic supply.

Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 16.7% to 4.2mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees, which are expected to boost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over the medium term will act as a constraint on production growth.

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: 15.9% to 3.1mn tonnes. Growth in demand will come from the country's livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand. Overall, however, corn consumption will largely be guided by changes in population.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 5.0% (down from 5.4% in 2015; predicted to average 5.9% from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation average: 7.3% (up from 4.7% in 2015).

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Industry View

SWOT

Agribusiness

Industry Forecast

Grains Outlook
Table: UgandaCorn ProductionConsumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Corn ProductionConsumption (Uganda 2012-2020)

Coffee Outlook
Table: UgandaCoffee ProductionConsumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee ProductionConsumption (Uganda 2012-2020)

Commodity Price Analysis

Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select CommoditiesPerformance And Forecasts

Upstream Analysis

Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)

Africa Fertiliser Outlook

Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region

Downstream Analysis

Food

Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption IndicatorsHistorical DataForecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)

Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, ProductionTradeHistorical DataForecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)

Dairy
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, ProductionTradeHistorical DataForecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)

Regional Overview

Middle EastAfrica Regional Overview

Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural PopulationLife Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group(Uganda 1990-2025)

Methodology

Industry Forecast Methodology

Sector-Specific Methodology

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