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Poland Mining Report Q2 2016

  • ID: 3621191
  • February 2016
  • Region: Poland
  • 43 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest over the coming years. The coal sector will be overhauled as the government seeks to either restructure or close unprofitable mines. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to hinder growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

Downside Risks

The main downside risks to our forecasts are weak copper and coal prices, cheap coal imports and labour unrest in the sector. Due to our view for a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth and expectation for increased copper supply, we expect lower copper prices over coming years. We forecast copper prices to average USD6,450/tonne over 2014-2018, significantly lower than their 2011 average of USD8,826/tonne.

Combined with falling ore grades in Poland, these lower prices will significantly disincentivise investment in the sector. Lower commodity prices will also have the effect of squeezing miners' margins, precipitating cutbacks and thus heightening the risk of industrial unrest. Poland's mining sector is comprised of strong unions and as such we highlight tense wage negotiations and potential strikes to affect the sector over coming years.

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- Industry View

- SWOT

- Industry Forecast

- Coal: Inefficient MInes & Weak Prices Spell Trouble

- Table: Coal Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020)

- Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll

- Table: Copper Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020)

- Industry Risk/Reward Index

- Poland Risk/Reward Index

- Rewards

- Risks

- Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Poland 2012-2020)

- Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward

- Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index

- Regulatory Development

- Table: Political Overview

- Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook

- Commodities Forecast

- Commodities Outlook

- Table: Commodities Price Forecasts

- Competitive Landscape

- Table: Poland - Major Mining & Metals Companies - Financial Data

- Company Profile

- KGHM

- Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data

- Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa (JSW)

- Table: JSW - Key Financial Data

- Regional Overview

- Methodology

- Industry Forecast Methodology

- Sources

- Risk/Reward Index Methodology

- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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- KGHM
- Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa (JSW)

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