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Electric Buses 2016-2026 Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

  • ID: 3675355
  • July 2016
  • Region: Global
  • 251 Pages
  • IDTechEx
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The Market for Medium and Large Hybrid and Pure Electric Buses Will be Over $132 Billion in 2026

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Acal Energy UK
  • ALABC/ILA London
  • Aleees Taiwan
  • Ebusco Netherlands
  • EV Roadmap 8 USA
  • Green GT France
  • MORE

Industrial and commercial electric vehicles will be a similar market to cars but innovating faster and frequently more profitable for all in the value chain. The most important sector is buses, the subject of this report, where innovation often comes before cars because they are less price sensitive.

In this report we show how the Chinese are now dominating the league table, buying the most buses and innovating rapidly already creating the lowest cost base by far. We examine the different power trains and the move from chassis to integrated manufacture often with no chassis and later structural electronics as bodywork will come. Technological roadmaps show the rapid innovation coming in the next decade and regional and technology sales are forecasted to 2026.

Well over 100 hybrid and pure electric bus manufacturers are appraised and regional trends revealed. Based on extensive interviews, conferences and searches in 2015-6 this unique report is the only up to date in depth appraisal of the issues and trends including a detailed look at fuel cell buses over nearly three decades identifying why further delays are risking the window of opportunity for them closing as the READ MORE >

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Acal Energy UK
  • ALABC/ILA London
  • Aleees Taiwan
  • Ebusco Netherlands
  • EV Roadmap 8 USA
  • Green GT France
  • MORE

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Overview
1.2. Summary of technical preferences
1.3. Statistics issues
1.4. Successful pure electric buses vs addressable market
1.5. Chinese price/performance
1.6. Forecast 2016-2026 with key orders, technology timelines
1.7. Electric bus >8t forecast by powertrain 2016-2026, number, unit value, market value
1.8. Forecast by territory for buses >8t for APAC, NA, Europe, other
1.9. Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2016-2026
1.10. Market forecast for electric buses <8t 2016-2026, number, unit price, market value
1.11. Cost trends - China ready to pounce
1.12. Market drivers and impediments
1.13. Regional differences
1.14. China, India and cities
1.15. Radical change
1.16. Truly global market for similar buses
1.17. Large pure electric buses: first big orders 2014/5
1.18. Weak trend to larger buses but not in China
1.19. Value chain and powertrain
1.20. Hybrids becoming pure electric
1.21. Relative importance of technical options
1.22. Technology disagreement
1.23. Fuel cell buses: progress and potential
1.23.1. Use of solar on hybrid fuel cell shuttle buses
1.24. Background statistics: automotive industry and buses in general
1.24.1. Automotive industry
1.24.2. School buses
1.24.3. Largest bus manufacturers
1.24.4. Review of 2012-2014
1.25. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles
1.26. E-bus news in 2016
1.26.1. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland - June 2016
1.26.2. Disruptive new bus concepts in 2016

2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. Urban logistics trends
2.2. The move to electric
2.3. Motor technology by type of vehicle
2.3.2. Switched reluctance motors a disruptive traction motor technology?
2.3.3. Three ways that traction motor makers race to escape rare earths
2.4. Choice of lithium-ion batteries
2.4.1. 142 lithium battery manufacturers: chemistry, format, sales successes
2.5. Global situation: some recent highlights
2.5.1. Australia
2.5.2. China
2.5.3. India
2.5.4. North America
2.6. Europe
2.6.1. UK
2.6.2. Germany
2.6.3. Sweden, Switzerland
2.6.4. ABB intermittent overhead charging
2.6.5. Turkey
2.7. Asia Pacific
2.8. Latin America
2.9. Africa/Middle East
2.10. Number of manufacturers of electric vehicles
2.11. Electrification
2.12. Drivers of change
2.13. Another supercapacitor bus stop charging system

3. ELECTRIC BUSES IN CHINA
3.1. China automotive industry
3.2. China bus market
3.2.1. China overall bus sales 2012-2014
3.2.2. China Light Bus Market 2013
3.2.3. China Medium Bus Market in 2013
3.2.4. China Large Bus Market 2013
3.3. Move to cleaner vehicles
3.4. Electric vehicle sales in China 2011-2014
3.4.2. Electric bus policy
3.5. Plug-in EV Sales in 2013
3.6. New Energy Vehicles NEV in 2014
3.7. Leapfrogging technology
3.8. Assessment of Chinese bus technology
3.8.1. Advanced technology in latest e-buses
3.8.2. Hiccups
3.8.3. China and rare earths
3.9. Chinese fuel cell activity: 35 organisations profiled
3.10. Chinese bus company and regional news 2014-5
3.10.1. BYD
3.10.2. BYD bus progress and plans
3.10.3. 5th New Energy Vehicle Exhibition Beijing Nov 2014

4. SURVEY OF HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS
4.1. Overview
4.2. Analysis of hybrid bus manufacturers by location
4.3. 86 hybrid bus manufacturers compared: HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment.

5. SURVEY OF PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
5.1. Overview
5.2. Analysis of pure electric bus manufacturers by location
5.3. 80 manufacturers of pure electric buses by HQ, bus and e-bus output range, images, examples and assessment
5.4. Kalsruhe Assessment of E-Buses in 2015

6. FUEL CELL BUSES: LESSONS OF 92 TRIALS
6.1. Technology
6.2. Fuel cell bus rollout as planned by Daimler in 2010 but delayed
6.3. Reasons for failure to launch
6.4. Third decade of trials
6.5. Ballard Pyrrhic victory
6.6. Fuel cell cars in trouble, holding back buses
6.7. New competitor
6.8. Window of opportunity closing
6.9. Catalog of shortcomings
6.10. Advances
6.11. Ballard approach
6.12. Fuel cell size reduces, fewer trials, no rollouts
6.13. Program slippage
6.14. US Targets
6.15. US evaluations
6.16. Key observation
6.17. Daimler program today
6.18. Justified scepticism
6.19. Hyundai progress
6.20. Fuel cell bus trials 1990-2015
6.21. Fuel cell bus trials 2011-2015
6.22. Commitment in Europe
6.23. Commitment in the USA
6.23.1. Some of the fuel cell buses currently in transit service in the US
6.24. Commitment in China

7. EXAMPLES OF INTERVIEWS
7.1. ALABC/ILA London January 2016
7.2. Acal Energy UK
7.3. Aleees Taiwan
7.4. Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA
7.5. Ebusco Netherlands
7.6. EV Roadmap 8 USA
7.7. Green GT France
7.8. Hyundai Korea
7.9. IFEVS Italy
7.10. ITRI Taiwan
7.11. Nippon ChemiCon Japan
7.12. PowerHydrant USA
7.13. Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany
7.14. Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan
7.15. University of California Davis USA

- APPENDIX - HINO MOTORS ADVANCES HYBRID BUSES

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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- ALABC/ILA London
- Acal Energy UK
- Aleees Taiwan
- Bombardier Germany and Qualcomm USA
- EV Roadmap 8 USA
- Ebusco Netherlands
- Green GT France
- Hyundai Korea
- IFEVS Italy
- ITRI Taiwan
- Nippon ChemiCon Japan
- PowerHydrant USA
- Proton Power Systems PLC, Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH Germany
- Taiyo Yuden and JM Energy Japan
- University of California Davis USA

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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