Global Positioning System (GPS) refers to a network of orbiting satellites and ground stations that provide freely-available signals showing the location of a receiver anywhere on earth. The signals are also a very high accuracy source of time signals. GPS is also referred to generically as Global Navigation Satellite System (Gnss) - the Russians have an alternative system termed Glonass (also Global Navigation Satellite System), and Europe is seeking to develop its own technology under the Galileo project.
The potential market for a low-cost, easy-to-use terrestrial navigation system is very large. In Western Europe alone, there are around 200 million vehicle users and there is a strong demand for traffic information and navigation solutions. The vehicle navigation market is still new in Europe and the US, but it is well established in Japan, which achieved a cumulative shipment of 9.39 million in-vehicle navigation and traffic-information units by May 2002. (Not all these units incorporate GPS technology.)
GPS is regarded by most governments as a utility on a par with mobile telephony. When mobile telephones first started appearing in the early 1980s, they were regarded as a luxury item. 20 years on, they are a staple consumer product in many countries of the world. Most analysts believe that positioning devices will follow a similar trend and that consumers in 15 to 20 years time will not be able to contemplate returning to a scenario in which precise location information was no longer available.
This report has the following chapters:
Navigation Systems Technology
This chapter explains the technology behind both existing navigation systems and GPS. The subject is covered in a jargon-free manner as far as is possible. In order to understand the full potential of the different types of GPS, it is necessary to be able to understand terms that many publications take for granted. The section also includes a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (Swot) analysis of GPS.
Government Initiatives for GPS
Both existing GPS systems were developed as military ordnance guidance systems and thus were, and still are, part of defence budgets. However, the sheer cost of GPS - to date the Russians are believed to have launched 82 satellites in connection with Glonass - means that the involvement of governments is still mandatory. Furthermore, the standard service signals for the existing signals are available free of charge, which limits the revenue-generating capability of any new service. This section of the report examines the role of governments around the world.
Traffic-Information and Associated Navigation Systems
Traffic-information reporting is considered to be the largest market at present for in-vehicle electronics dealing with the provision of information to drivers (telematics). The market evolved prior to GPS, but is now a major user of GPS. This section examines the growth of the market in Japan, the world's most well-established market, as well as studying developments in other countries, including the UK.
In-Car Navigation Systems
The earliest commercial systems for GPS have mainly been for in-vehicle navigation systems, with Japan again being the most developed market. This chapter gives an overview of such systems and the mapping technology behind navigation systems.
Fleet-management systems (FMS), which allow large operators of mobile assets to track and communicate with the entire fleet, are considered to be one of the most important global markets by Key Note. This chapter gives an outline of the capabilities of a number of these systems.
Transport Position Reporting Systems
Transport position reporting is a specialised subset of fleet-management. This chapter provides case studies of the application of GPS to public transportation around the world.
Mayday and Security Systems
One of the most important markets for GPS in the US is that of automatic emergency location. This chapter examines the possibilities for GPS in the mobile telephony market for enhanced 911 (emergency) calls in the US and also covers the use of GPS in Europe for tracking stolen vehicles.
GPS and Timing - Telecommunications
A vital aspect of GPS is its ability to provide atomic time standards anywhere on earth. This chapter covers the technology and markets for precise timing applications.
Precise Positioning Systems - Agriculture and Surveying
Standard GPS can provide a location to approximately 10m. Precise positioning with GPS is possible, at extra cost, such that positioning is possible to less than 10mm. This chapter of the report examines the markets for such precise positioning, including agriculture, mining and surveying.
GPS and Aviation
Aviation is a major market for GPS. This chapter covers the technology behind aerial navigation and explains the initiatives being followed around the world to provide precision landing systems using enhanced GPS.
GPS and Leisure
The leisure market for GPS is still, to a large extent, one that falls in the category of a luxury purchase. The report covers possible markets, such as fishing, in brief and gives examples of leisure GPS products.
The Space Commerce Market
Although the bulk of the report studies the terrestrial applications of GPS receivers, this is not the only source of sales revenue in the GPS market. This chapter of the report studies the commercial aspects of the GPS sector of the satellite industry in the context of the entire market, which includes satellite communications, space transportation and remote sensing, as well as GPS.
These forecast chapters (A Merging Market, Traffic Information, In-Car Navigation, Fleet-Management Systems, Mayday and Security Tracking Systems, and Other Markets) examine the current markets and the future prospects in great detail. The report provides 57 forecast tables, all but three of which were specially commissioned for this report. The report concentrates on the vehicular uses of GPS and provides forecasts for the major markets in 2017, a date chosen to represent the mature market. Forecasts are also provided for the annual spend on GPS within each market sector for the period 2002 to 2011 inclusive. Geographically, these tables provide individual country forecasts for 59 countries in five geographical regions.
Forecasts for the market for GPS vary considerably. The market has not performed to date as well as previously expected, yet most analysts continue to make very bullish statements. The author of this report used a mathematical forecast method in a previous title relating to intelligent transport systems, published in 1998 by the Financial Times. The forecasts for growth rates for unit quantities in Japanese cars for that report have since been shown to have been within 3% of the actual numbers in 1997 to 2000. An adapted mathematical forecast has thus been used for this report as well.
Due to the all-embracing nature of GPS, the relatively new nature of the market, its evolving technology and the creation of augmentation services, analysts' views as to the development of the market differ considerably. There is no consistent view as to the rate of development and the degree of penetration of GPS into the consumer sector. The US GPS Industry Council has quoted figures for worldwide GPS equipment sales of around $6bn in 1999, rising to $16.5bn for 2003. Key Note believes that, while these figures are close to the mark, the US share of the market is not the 50% expected by the US Department of Commerce for 2002. The current market in Asia is considered to be much greater than that of the US and so Key Note has increased its estimates of current market size as a direct result. In fact, Key Note believes that 68.2% of the 2002 sales of GPS equipment will derive from the Pacific Rim. Key Note, in company with all analysts, believes that the market will show strong annual growth and expect a mature market size of $757bn in 2017.
Manufacturers of GPS Equipment
A number of the manufacturers of GPS equipment are covered in this section, together with financial information where available.
A short appendix explaining Key Note's methodology, and average systems prices in the various sectors covered by the report.
A short glossary covering the most common acronyms is provided with this report. SHOW LESS READ MORE >