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New Business Models for the Transpacific and Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry Revival 2005

  • ID: 39141
  • Report
  • December 2004
  • Region: Asia, Asia Pacific
  • 245 pages
  • Pioneer Consulting
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Driven by bandwidth demand growth of over 40% per year, the Asia Pacific region is leading the recovery in the global submarine fibre optics industry. Much has changed since the last report on this region:

- Market Consolidation – The competitive arena has changed. The balance of power has shifted away from “private” models and back to incumbent consortia

- New Players – The Chinese are breaking out of their domestic market and the Indians are grasping opportunities to acquire distressed Asian assets

- Major Capital Projects – After a drought in 2003-4, capital is once again flowing into the region for projects like SEA-ME-WE-4 and FALCON

- Regional In-fill – opportunities to construct feeder systems, connecting secondary markets to the major international trunks are appearing

- Dwindling Capacity Surplus – Bandwidth prices continue to decline but at a slower rate as the bandwidth surplus is steadily eroded by strong demand growth

All these issues and more are addressed in this 2004 update on the Asia Pacific region and transpacific route. In addition, the report provides the usual country-by-country demand and supply analysis, as well as a competitor analysis.

Countries covered :
- American Samoa
- Australia
- Brunei Darussalam
- Cambodia
- China
- Fiji
- French Polynesia
- Guam
- Hongkong
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Kiribati
- Korea, S.
- Lao
- Macau
- Malaysia
- Marshall Is.
- Micronesia
- Myanmar
- New Caledonia
- New Zealand
- Papua New Guinea
- Philippines
- Singapore
- Solomon Is.
- Taiwan
- Thailand
- Tonga
- Vanuatu
- Vietnam
- W. Samoa

Competitors analysed :
- Australia-Japan Cable
- APCN-2 Consortium
- Asia Netcom
- C2C/SingTel
- China Telecom
- China-US Consortium
- FLAG/Reliance Infocomm
- Japan-US Consortium
- Pacific Crossing-1
- Reach (Telstra/PCCW)
- SEA-ME-WE-3 Consortium
- SEA-ME-WE-4 Consortium
- Southern Cross
- TPC-5 Consortium
- VSNL/Tata

This report is indispensable for anyone who needs to understand the dynamics of this market and the likely timing of new regional and transpacific construction.
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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

1.1 Report aims

1.2 Report structure and methodology

1.3 Market Overview

1.3.1 Drivers of Market Growth
1.3.2 Constraints on Market Growth
1.3.3 Key Market Developments & Trends 2003-4
1.3.4 Bandwidth Pricing
1.3.5 Future Business Models

1.4 Demand Forecasts
1.4.1 Total Market Demand
1.4.2 Internet Demand
1.4.3 Country-by-Country Demand Analysis

1.5 Competitor Market Share Forecasts
1.5.1 Transpacific Competitors
1.5.2 Asia Pacific Competitors

1.6 Upgrade and New System Forecasts
1.6.1 Supply-Demand Balances
1.6.2 New System Construction & Business Models

Chapter 2 – Introduction

2.1 Purpose of the Report

2.2 Report Scope

2.3 Methodology

Chapter 3 – New Business Models for the Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry

3.1 Commercial Environment
3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicators
3.1.2 Demand vs. Supply
3.1.3 Drivers of Market Growth
3.1.4 Constraints on Market Growth

3.2 Key Developments
3.2.1 Consolidation
3.2.2 China’s influence spreading
3.2.3 Indian capital & competition
3.2.4 Regional in-fill opportunities
3.2.5 South Korea in uncharted territory
3.2.6 Japan goes down the FTTx route
3.2.7 Australia’s Broadband Boom
3.2.8 Vietnam becoming active
3.2.9 Developments in Singapore
3.2.10 Indonesia with money to burn
3.2.11 Asia Pacific Maintenance Market

3.3 Competitor Profiles
3.3.1 APCN-2 Consortium
3.3.2 Asia Netcom
3.3.3 C2C
3.3.4 FLAG Telecom
3.3.5 Reach (Telstra/PCCW)
3.3.6 SEA-ME-WE-3 Consortium
3.3.7 SEA-ME-WE-4 Consortium
3.3.8 Thailand-Indonesia-Singapore Consortium
3.3.9 VSNL/Tata
3.3.10 Australia-Japan Cable
3.3.11 China-US Consortium
3.3.12 Japan-US Consortium
3.3.13 Pacific Crossing-1
3.3.14 Southern Cross
3.3.15 Tata Transpacific (formerly known as Tyco Transpacific)
3.3.16 TPC-5 Consortium

3.4 Bandwidth Pricing

3.5 Future Models
3.5.1 Financing
3.5.2 Scale & Scope
3.5.3 Ownership

Chapter 4 – Country-Specific Demand Forecasts

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Methodology & Assumptions
4.2.1 Internet Methodology & Assumptions
4.2.2 Corporate Data Demand Methodology & Assumptions
4.2.3 Voice Traffic Demand Methodology & Assumptions

4.3 Country-Specific Forecasts (see also Appendix 1)
4.3.1 American Samoa
4.3.2 Australia
4.3.3 Brunei Darussalam
4.3.4 Cambodia
4.3.5 China
4.3.6 Fiji
4.3.7 French Polynesia
4.3.8 Guam
4.3.9 Hongkong
4.3.10 Indonesia
4.3.11 Japan
4.3.12 Kiribati
4.3.13 Korea, S.
4.3.14 Lao P.D.R.
4.3.15 Macau
4.3.16 Malaysia
4.3.17 Marshall Islands
4.3.18 Micronesia (Fed. States of)
4.3.19 Myanmar
4.3.20 New Caledonia
4.3.21 New Zealand
4.3.22 Papua New Guinea
4.3.23 Philippines
4.3.24 Samoa
4.3.25 Singapore
4.3.26 Solomon Islands
4.3.27 Taiwan
4.3.28 Thailand
4.3.29 Tonga
4.3.30 Vanuatu
4.3.31 Vietnam

4.4 Regional Summary

Chapter 5 – Competitor Analysis

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Methodology & Assumptions
5.2.1 Connectivity Index
5.2.2 Design Capacity
5.2.3 Internal Sales
5.2.4 Countries Connected
5.2.5 Backhaul Availability
5.2.6 Restructured Companies
5.2.7 Cable CI
5.2.8 Company CI
5.2.9 Competitor Market Share Assessments

5.3 Competitor Market Share Assessments
5.3.1 Transpacific
5.3.2 Asia Pacific

Chapter 6 – Supply-Demand Balance Forecast

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Methodology & Assumptions
6.2.1 Transpacific
6.2.2 Asia Pacific

6.3 Forecast Supply vs. Demand Balances
6.3.1 Transpacific
6.3.2 Asia Pacific

6.4 Forecast New Installations
6.4.1 Transpacific
6.4.2 Asia Pacific

6.5 Conclusion

Chapter 7 – Conclusion

7.1 Critical Success Factors
7.1.1 Finance
7.1.2 Scale & Scope
7.1.3 Ownership

7.2 Demand
7.2.1 Leading Countries
7.2.2 Demand Profile
7.2.3 Access Speed vs. Bandwidth Usage
7.2.4 Demand Drivers & Constraints

7.3 Competition
7.3.1 De-regulation
7.3.2 Competitive Strategies
7.3.3 Transpacific Competition
7.3.4 Asia Pacific Regional Competition

7.4 Supply-Demand Balances
7.4.1 Transpacific Supply-Demand Balance
7.4.2 Asia Pacific Supply-Demand Balance

7.5 New Construction
7.5.1 New Transpacific Systems
7.5.2 New Asia Pacific Regional Systems

7.6 Future Business Models

List of Exhibits

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

1.1 Investment in Transpacific & Asia Pacific Submarine Fiber Optic Systems 1999-2005
1.2 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - All Asia Pacific
1.3 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - All Asia Pacific
1.4 Forecast Demand for Transpacific Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2004-14
1.5 Forecast Demand for Asia Pacific Intra-Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2004-14
1.6 Forecast Transpacific Demand Distribution 2004-14
1.7 Forecast Transpacific Demand by Country Seeking to Transit Asia Pacific Cables 2004-14
1.8 Forecast Evolution of Transpacific Competitor Market Shares 2004-14
1.9 Forecast Asia Pacific Intra-Regional Demand Distribution 2004-14
1.10 Forecast Evolution of Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares 2004-14
1.11 Forecast Supply-Demand Balances on the Transpacific Route and in the Asia Pacific Region 2004-14

Chapter 2 – Introduction

2.1 Diagrammatic Representation of the Submarine Cable Capacity Demand-Supply and Competitor Analysis Models

Chapter 3 – New Business Models for the Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry

3.1 U.S. Government Worldwide Average Annual GDP Growth Forecast 2004-13
3.2 Forecast Growth in Asia Pacific Broadband User Population 2004-14
3.3 Forecast Trends in Asia Pacific & Transpacific Capacity Utilisation 2004-9 3.4 Forecast Evolution of Optimal Application Bandwidth Requirements 2004-14 3.5 Investment in Transpacific & Asia Pacific Submarine Fiber Optic Systems 1999-2005
3.6 Asia Pacific Regulatory Market Matrix
3.7 Forecast Asia Pacific Access Speeds and Optimal Application Bandwidth
3.8 Cable Map – APCN-2
3.9 Cable Map – EAC
3.10 Cable Map – C2Ccn
3.11 Cable Map – FLAG Europe-Asia
3.12 Cable Map – FNAL
3.13 Cable Map – SEA-ME-WE-3
3.14 Cable Map – SEA-ME-WE-4
3.15 Cable Map – TIS
3.16 Cable Map – AJC
3.17 Cable Map – Japan-US
3.18 Cable Map – Southern Cross
3.19 Cable Map – Tata Transpacific
3.20 Cable Map – TPC-5
3.21 Forecast of Asia Pacific Average Lease Price Trends by Service Level 2002–12
3.22 Forecast of Asia Pacific Average IRU Price Trends by Service Level 2002–12

Chapter 4 – Country-Specific Demand Forecasts

4.1 Forecast Asia Pacific Dial-up & Broadband Penetration 2001-12
4.2 Forecast Evolution of Average Broadband Access Speeds in Developed and Less Developed Asia Pacific Countries 2004-14
4.3 Forecast Asia Pacific Average Access Speed (All Users) 2004-2014
4.4 Forecast Evolution of Optimal Application Bandwidth Requirements 2004-14 4.5 Forecast Asia Pacific Bandwidth per User by Country 2004-14
4.6 U.S.-originated Private Line Activations 1995-2002 in Leading Asia Pacific Countries
4.7 Forecast Trend in Asia Pacific Corporate Data Demand Satisfied by IP VPN 2004-14
4.8 Total Asia Pacific Voice Traffic 1995-2002
4.9 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - American Samoa
4.10 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - American Samoa
4.11 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Australia
4.12 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Australia
4.13 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Brunei Darussalam
4.14 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Brunei Darussalam
4.15 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Cambodia
4.16 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Cambodia
4.17 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - China
4.18 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - China
4.19 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Fiji
4.20 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Fiji
4.21 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - French Polynesia
4.22 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - French Polynesia
4.23 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Guam
4.24 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Guam
4.25 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Hongkong
4.26 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Hongkong
4.27 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Indonesia
4.28 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Indonesia
4.29 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Japan
4.30 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Japan
4.31 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Kiribati
4.32 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Kiribati
4.33 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Korea, South
4.34 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Korea, South
4.35 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Lao P.D.R.
4.36 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Lao P.D.R.
4.37 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Macau
4.38 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Macau
4.39 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Malaysia
4.40 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Malaysia
4.41 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Marshall Islands
4.42 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Marshall Islands
4.43 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Micronesia
4.44 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Micronesia
4.45 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Myanmar
4.46 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Myanmar
4.47 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - New Caledonia
4.48 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - New Caledonia
4.49 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - New Zealand
4.50 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - New Zealand
4.51 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Papua New Guinea
4.52 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Papua New Guinea
4.53 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Av. Bandwidth/User - Philippines
4.54 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Philippines
4.55 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Samoa
4.56 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Samoa
4.57 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Singapore
4.58 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Singapore
4.59 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Solomon Islands
4.60 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Solomon Is.
4.61 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Taiwan
4.62 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Taiwan
4.63 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Thailand
4.64 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Thailand
4.65 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Tonga
4.66 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Tonga
4.67 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Vanuatu
4.68 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Vanuatu
4.69 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Vietnam
4.70 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Vietnam
4.71 Forecast Total Cumulative Demand for Transpacific Submarine Capacity 2004-14
4.72 Asia Pacific Forecast Total Cumulative Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity 2004-14
4.73 Forecast Demand for Transpacific Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2004-14
4.74 Forecast Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2004-14
4.75 Forecast Transpacific & Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Capacity Demand Profiles
4.76 Forecast Evolution of Average Asia Pacific Internet Access Speed and Bandwidth per User

Chapter 5 – Competitor Analysis

5.1 Competitor Connectivity Index Template
5.2 Transpacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004
5.3 Transpacific Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004
5.4 Forecast Evolution of Transpacific Competitor Market Shares 2004-14
5.5 Forecast Distribution of Transpacific Demand by Competitor 2004-14
5.6 Forecast Transpacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2004-14 inc. Unsatisfied Demand
5.7 Breakdown of Forecast Transpacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2004-14 5.8 Asia Pacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004
5.9 Asia Pacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2006+
5.10 Asia Pacific Leading Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004-5
5.11 Asia Pacific Leading Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2006+
5.12 Introduction of SEA-ME-WE-4 : Impact on Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares
5.13 Forecast Evolution of Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares 2004-14
5.14 Forecast Distribution of Asia Pacific Regional Demand by Competitor 2004-14
5.15 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2004-14 inc. Unsatisfied Demand
5.16 Breakdown of Forecast Asia Pacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2004-14

Chapter 6 – Supply-Demand Balance Forecast

6.1 Direct Transpacific Submarine Cable Connections By Country
6.2 Forecast Transpacific Upgrade Schedule 2004-14
6.3 Forecast Transpacific Upgrade Schedule 2003-12 by Cable
6.4 Forecast Transpacific Submarine Capacity Availability 2004-14
6.5 Forecast Transpacific Activated Submarine Capacity in Leading Countries 2004-14
6.6 Forecast Surplus Transpacific Capacity in Leading Countries 2004-14
6.7 Forecast Transpacific Submarine Capacity Supply-Demand Balance 2004-14
6.8 Forecast Transpacific Demand by Country Seeking to Transit Asia Pacific Cables 2004-14
6.9 Surplus Transpacific Demand which could be transported over an Asia Pacific connection 2004-14
6.10 Surplus Transpacific Demand which cannot be transported over an Asia Pacific connection
6.11 Intra-regional Submarine Cable Connections By Country
6.12 Forecast Asia Pacific Upgrade Schedule 2004-14
6.13 Forecast Asia Pacific Upgrade Schedule 2004-14 by Cable
6.14 Forecast Asia Pacific Submarine Capacity Availability 2004-14
6.15 Forecast Asia Pacific Activated Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Countries 2004-14
6.16 Forecast Surplus Asia Pacific Capacity in Leading Countries 2004-14
6.17 Forecast Asia Pacific Submarine Capacity Supply-Demand Balance 2004-14 6.18 Transpacific Transit Demand as a Percentage of Total Asia Pacific Demand & Supply 2004-14
6.19 Forecast Transpacific Supply-Demand Balance 2004-14
6.20 Forecast Asia Pacific Supply-Demand Balance 2004-14

Chapter 7 – Conclusion
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