A house divided: Rising interest rates and the end of HomeBuilder deteriorate industry demand
The industry has been exposed to wide annual fluctuations in the price and volume of land sales in response to the changing trends in building investment. The volume of greenfield land sales for residential projects more than doubled from a low in 2018-19 to the peak in 2020-21, which corresponded with the surge in single-unit dwelling commencements resulting from the injection of the Federal Government's HomeBuilder stimulus and historically low interest rates. The reversal of this stimulus and the recent hike in mortgage interest rates have contributed to an expected contraction in industry revenue at an annualised 2.3% over the five years through 2022-23 to $16.2 billion, including an anticipated slump of 24.2% in revenue for the current year.
Industry companies primarily subdivide and amalgamate land into lots. Companies also prepare and service land for subsequent sale, including performing excavation work for installing roads and utility lines.
This report covers the scope, size, disposition and growth of the industry including the key sensitivities and success factors. Also included are five year industry forecasts, growth rates and an analysis of the industry key players and their market shares.
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