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Developed Asia–Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016–2021

  • ID: 4036327
  • Report
  • November 2016
  • Region: Asia Pacific
  • 53 pages
  • Analysys Mason Group
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Telecoms Retail Revenue for the Developed Asia–Pacific Region will Grow Steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD189 billion in 2021

Challenges remain in the developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) telecoms market, including market saturation and the increasing penetration of OTT services. Total telecoms retail revenue in DVAP grew slowly from 2011 to 2015 at a 1.2% CAGR, but will accelerate to a 1.5% CAGR between 2015 to 2021, thanks to service improvements. Mobile handset data will continue to contribute the most revenue, and its share of total retail revenue will grow steadily, reaching 51% in 2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP, as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
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Chapters:

8. Executive summary
9. Telecoms retail revenue for developed Asia–Pacific will grow steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD189 billion in 2021
10. Mobile handset data will be the main growth driver in DVAP, followed by fixed broadband and IPTV, while voice service revenue will decline most
11. Japan continues to have the largest subscriber base and revenue size across DVAP countries, followed by South Korea and Australia
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile connections (excluding IoT); FTTB household penetration will reach 93%
16. Market context: In 2015, average monthly telecoms retail spend was USD58.9 per person and service revenue contributed to 2.3% of GDP
17. Revenue and ARPU: DVAP telecoms retail revenue will maintain healthy growth, driven by higher mobile data speeds, new services and bundling
18. Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%, with gaps narrowing
19. Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
20. Smartphones and 4G/5G: 9 out of 10 handsets will be smartphones by 2021, benefiting from growing apps usage and the migration to 4G/5G
21. Mobile broadband: There will be 25 million mobile broadband connections in DVAP by 2021, and 98% of which will be 4G/5G
22. Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period
23. Data and revenue by generation: Technology migration continues and data traffic per connection will grow rapidly, reaching 7.5GB in 2021
24. Fixed services: FTTP/B was the dominant broadband technology from 2011 to 2015; this trend will continue throughout the forecast period
25. Fixed broadband: household fixed broadband penetration will grow from 84% in 2015 to 93% in 2021, driven by bandwidth demand and NBN plans
26. Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia–Pacific market
27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29. Individual country forecasts
30. Australia: Mobile data and IoT services will help to maintain positive revenue growth rates during the forecast period
31. Australia – mobile: Densification of 4G networks will result in mobile data revenue growth
32. Australia – fixed: NBN has successfully increased the number of premises passed, driving up FBB adoption; this growth will slow
33. Hong Kong: Competition will intensify in the enterprise segment, while operators focus on partnerships and advanced technologies
34. Hong Kong – mobile: Mobile penetration will drop in the near future, and ARPU will slowly decline, despite service upgrades
35. Hong Kong– fixed: Competition will intensify in the enterprise segment; operators are competing and partnering with OTTs
36. Japan: Service improvement and technology upgrades will compensate for the decline in traditional services
37. Japan – mobile: IoT will drive mobile penetration growth, but 4G will continue to play an important role during the forecast period
38. Japan – fixed: NGA will continue to grow steadily, but IPTV will only achieve mild growth
39. Singapore: Declining voice and messaging revenue will pull down the overall telecoms retail revenue growth rate to negative
40. Singapore – mobile: Increasing competition in the mobile market will hamper effective 4G data monetisation
41. Singapore – fixed: A high broadband household penetration and declining ASPU will result in declining market revenue
42. South Korea: Despite competition pressure, operators continue to improve user experience and invest in technology innovation
43. South Korea – mobile: Operators will use new spectrum to boost bandwidth and improve user experience
44. South Korea – fixed: Operators continue to invest in network upgrades and improve bandwidth
45. Taiwan: Service improvements and market consolidation is occurring, driven by increasing competition pressure
46. Taiwan – mobile: 4G adoption was boosted by the cessation of WiMAX services, and will be boosted further by 2G termination
47. Taiwan– fixed: Operators are under pressure to innovate, to provide better services, and to differentiate
48. About the authors

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia– Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, developed Asia– Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia– Pacific
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in developed Asia– Pacific, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015– 2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia– Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per gigabyte, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016–2021), by country, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2011–2021
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2015–2021
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2015–2021
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2011– 2021
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2011–2021
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2011–2021
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2011–2021
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2011–2021
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2015–2021
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2015–2021
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2011–2021
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2011–2021
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2011–2021
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2011–2021
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2011–2021
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2015–2021
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2015–2021
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2011– 2021
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2011–2021
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2011–2021
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2011–2021
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2011–2021
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2015–2021
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2015–2021
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2011–2021
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2011–2021
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2011–2021
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2011–2021
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2011–2021
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2015–2021
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2015–2021
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2011–2021
Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2011–2021
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2011–2021
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2011–2021
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2011–2021
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2015–2021
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2015–2021
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2011– 2021
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2011–2021
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2011–2021
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2011–2021
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan

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Countries modelled individually

  •     Australia
  •     Hong Kong
  •     Japan
  •     Singapore
  •     South Korea
  •     Taiwan

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  •     Brunei
  •     French Polynesia
  •     Guam
  •     Macau
  •     New Caledonia
  •     New Zealand
  •     Northern Mariana Islands
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