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UK Retail Futures 2011: Electricals
Description:
Introduction
The electricals sector faces a tough comparative in 2007 following tremendous sales of flat panel TVs in 2006. But with a solid pipeline of new technology due, the market's prospects remain strong. Our up-to-date analysis provides essential information to capitalize on new opportunities and create a coherent strategy.
Scope
Value data, growth rates and forecasts broken down by subsector. Coverage of key market issues and growth drivers. Electricals market expenditure, inflation and volume growth (1996-2006), plus full five-year forecasts for each of the categories.
Highlights
Over the next five years the electricals sector will grow faster than any other major UK retail sector. Growth of 24.1% will easily outperform total retail growth of 15.1% and other sectors such as homewares (20.2%) and furniture & floorcoverings (12.0%). Brown goods will be the strongest performing part of the electricals market growing by 30.1% by 2011 with games consoles and software significantly outperforming. The forthcoming Playstation 3 will contribute to sub sector growth of 73.4% over the next five years. As in 2006, flat-panel TVs will be a major source of growth over the next five years. As household penetration of flat screen TVs remains as low as 20% there is much potential for growth, while other shoppers will be likely to purchase replacement second and third flat panel TVs for their homes.
Reasons to Purchase
Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth and action points to guide strategies. Optimize buying, identify emerging trends and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them. Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source.
The electricals sector faces a tough comparative in 2007 following tremendous sales of flat panel TVs in 2006. But with a solid pipeline of new technology due, the market's prospects remain strong. Our up-to-date analysis provides essential information to capitalize on new opportunities and create a coherent strategy.
Scope
Value data, growth rates and forecasts broken down by subsector. Coverage of key market issues and growth drivers. Electricals market expenditure, inflation and volume growth (1996-2006), plus full five-year forecasts for each of the categories.
Highlights
Over the next five years the electricals sector will grow faster than any other major UK retail sector. Growth of 24.1% will easily outperform total retail growth of 15.1% and other sectors such as homewares (20.2%) and furniture & floorcoverings (12.0%). Brown goods will be the strongest performing part of the electricals market growing by 30.1% by 2011 with games consoles and software significantly outperforming. The forthcoming Playstation 3 will contribute to sub sector growth of 73.4% over the next five years. As in 2006, flat-panel TVs will be a major source of growth over the next five years. As household penetration of flat screen TVs remains as low as 20% there is much potential for growth, while other shoppers will be likely to purchase replacement second and third flat panel TVs for their homes.
Reasons to Purchase
Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth and action points to guide strategies. Optimize buying, identify emerging trends and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them. Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source.
Contents:
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Findings
Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY
Expenditure Summary
Specialists Summary
CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES
Overview
Changing Competitive Landscape
Grocers Intensify Assault
Other Non-specialists Target Electricals
Online Market Consolidation
Core Growth Categories Set to Lose Momentum in 2007
TV to Struggle to Match Performance of 2006
Digital Camera Market Loses Steam
Digital Music Players Await Next Round of Innovation
New Technology Pipeline Provides Optimism
Next Generation Consoles
Next Generation DVD
Windows Vista
Digital Convergence
Video Cameras
Tough Economic Outlook – Uncertainty and Caution
Limited Space Growth
Deflation
CHAPTER 4 ELECTRICALS SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
Retail Sales
Sources of Sales Growth
Share of Total Sales
Store Numbers
Space Growth
Sales Densities
CHAPTER 5 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
Sales & Spending
Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
Electricals Market Shares
CHAPTER 6 CATEGORY FORECASTS
Expenditure Summary
Expenditure Analysis
Expenditure Growth
Brown Goods
Audio-visual Equipment
Games Consoles and Software
Photographic & Optical Equipment
White Goods
Major Household Appliances
Minor Household Appliances
Grey Goods
Information Processing Equipment
Telephones & Fax Equipment
CHAPTER 7 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Key Messages
GDP
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Earnings & Disposable Income
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Employment
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Inflation
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Exchange Rates
How do they affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Interest Rates
How do they affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Savings Ratio
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Consumer Debt
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Equities
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
House Price Inflation
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Housing Transactions
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
CHAPTER 8 UK RETAILING FORECASTS
Key Indicators
Retail Expenditure 1996-2011
Sales by Location 1996-2011
Sources of Growth 1996-2011
Store Numbers by Location 1996-2011
Space by Location 1996-2011
Sales Density by Location 1996-2011
Average Store Size 1996-2011
Average Store Sales 1996-2011
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY
Terminology
Market Definition
Location Definitions
Town Centre
Out-of-town
Neighbourhood
Non-store retail
Forecasting Methodology
Abbreviations
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Electricals expenditure summary 2001, 2006 & 2011
Table 2: Electricals specialists summary 2001, 2006 and 2011
Table 3: Electricals specialists sales 1996-2011
Table 4: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1996-2011
Table 5: Total selling space for electricals specialists 1996-2011
Table 6: Electricals retailers market shares 2001-2006e
Table 7: Electricals expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Table 8: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 9: White goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 10: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 11: Total electricals expenditure 1996-2011
Table 12: Brown goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 13: Audio-visual equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 14: Games consoles and software expenditure 1996-2011
Table 15: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 16: White goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 17: Major household appliances expenditure 1996-2011
Table 18: Minor household appliances expenditure 1996-2011
Table 19: Grey goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 20: Information processing equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 21: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 22: Economic drivers for retail 2007
Table 23: Measures of inflation 2007
Table 24: UK retailing forecasts summary 2006-2011
Table 25: Total consumer retail expenditure 1996-2011
Table 26: Forecast chronology 2006-2011
Table 27: Sales by location 1996-2011
Table 28: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1996-2011
Table 29: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1996-2011
Table 30: Store numbers 1996-2011
Table 31: Space by location 1996-2011
Table 32: Sales densities by location at current prices 1996-2011
Table 33: Average store size by location 1996-2011
Table 34: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1996-2011
Table 49: Electricals market definition
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Electricals specialists sources of growth 1996-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 2: Electricals market key issues 2006-2011
Figure 3: Major category growth trends 2006-2011
Figure 4: Electricals specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer ending 1996-2011
Figure 5: Total electricals specialists store numbers (000) 1996-2011
Figure 6: Space growth for electricals specialists 1996-2011
Figure 7: Electricals specialists sales densities at current prices 1996-2011
Figure 8: Electricals specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 9: Electricals channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011
Figure 10: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2011 on 2006
Figure 11: Key electricals retailers change in market shares 2001-2006e
Figure 12: Electricals expenditure growth rates 1996-01, 2001-06 & 2006-11
Figure 13: Electricals expenditure as a % of total spending 1996-2011
Figure 14: Electricals expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 15: Brown goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 16: Brown goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 17: Audio-visual equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 18: Audio-visual equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 19: Games consoles and software expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 20: Games consoles and software expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 21: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 22: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 23: White goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 24: White goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 25: Major household appliances expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 26: Major household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 27: Minor household appliances expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 28: Minor household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 29: Grey goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 30: Grey goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 31: Information processing equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 32: Information processing equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 33: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 34: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 35: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 36: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1996-2011
Figure 37: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 38: UK employment 1996-2011
Figure 39: UK unemployment 1996-2011
Figure 40: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1996-2011
Figure 41: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1996-2011
Figure 42: UK average base rates 1997-2007e
Figure 43: Savings ratio 1996-2011
Figure 44: Growth in consumer debt 1996-2011
Figure 45: FTSE 100 Index 1996-2011
Figure 46: UK house price inflation 1996-2011
Figure 47: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1996-2011
Figure 48: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1996-2011
Figure 49: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1996-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 50: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1995-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 51: Retail spending by location 2006 and 2011
Figure 52: Share of turnover by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Figure 53: % share of store numbers by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Figure 54: Our forecasting methodology
Key Findings
Main Conclusions
CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY
Expenditure Summary
Specialists Summary
CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES
Overview
Changing Competitive Landscape
Grocers Intensify Assault
Other Non-specialists Target Electricals
Online Market Consolidation
Core Growth Categories Set to Lose Momentum in 2007
TV to Struggle to Match Performance of 2006
Digital Camera Market Loses Steam
Digital Music Players Await Next Round of Innovation
New Technology Pipeline Provides Optimism
Next Generation Consoles
Next Generation DVD
Windows Vista
Digital Convergence
Video Cameras
Tough Economic Outlook – Uncertainty and Caution
Limited Space Growth
Deflation
CHAPTER 4 ELECTRICALS SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
Retail Sales
Sources of Sales Growth
Share of Total Sales
Store Numbers
Space Growth
Sales Densities
CHAPTER 5 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
Sales & Spending
Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
Electricals Market Shares
CHAPTER 6 CATEGORY FORECASTS
Expenditure Summary
Expenditure Analysis
Expenditure Growth
Brown Goods
Audio-visual Equipment
Games Consoles and Software
Photographic & Optical Equipment
White Goods
Major Household Appliances
Minor Household Appliances
Grey Goods
Information Processing Equipment
Telephones & Fax Equipment
CHAPTER 7 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Key Messages
GDP
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Earnings & Disposable Income
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Employment
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Inflation
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Exchange Rates
How do they affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Interest Rates
How do they affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Savings Ratio
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Consumer Debt
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Equities
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
House Price Inflation
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
Housing Transactions
How does it affect retail?
What’s happened?
What will happen?
CHAPTER 8 UK RETAILING FORECASTS
Key Indicators
Retail Expenditure 1996-2011
Sales by Location 1996-2011
Sources of Growth 1996-2011
Store Numbers by Location 1996-2011
Space by Location 1996-2011
Sales Density by Location 1996-2011
Average Store Size 1996-2011
Average Store Sales 1996-2011
CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY
Terminology
Market Definition
Location Definitions
Town Centre
Out-of-town
Neighbourhood
Non-store retail
Forecasting Methodology
Abbreviations
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Electricals expenditure summary 2001, 2006 & 2011
Table 2: Electricals specialists summary 2001, 2006 and 2011
Table 3: Electricals specialists sales 1996-2011
Table 4: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1996-2011
Table 5: Total selling space for electricals specialists 1996-2011
Table 6: Electricals retailers market shares 2001-2006e
Table 7: Electricals expenditure summary 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Table 8: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 9: White goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 10: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2006-2011
Table 11: Total electricals expenditure 1996-2011
Table 12: Brown goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 13: Audio-visual equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 14: Games consoles and software expenditure 1996-2011
Table 15: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 16: White goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 17: Major household appliances expenditure 1996-2011
Table 18: Minor household appliances expenditure 1996-2011
Table 19: Grey goods expenditure 1996-2011
Table 20: Information processing equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 21: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure 1996-2011
Table 22: Economic drivers for retail 2007
Table 23: Measures of inflation 2007
Table 24: UK retailing forecasts summary 2006-2011
Table 25: Total consumer retail expenditure 1996-2011
Table 26: Forecast chronology 2006-2011
Table 27: Sales by location 1996-2011
Table 28: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1996-2011
Table 29: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1996-2011
Table 30: Store numbers 1996-2011
Table 31: Space by location 1996-2011
Table 32: Sales densities by location at current prices 1996-2011
Table 33: Average store size by location 1996-2011
Table 34: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1996-2011
Table 49: Electricals market definition
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Electricals specialists sources of growth 1996-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 2: Electricals market key issues 2006-2011
Figure 3: Major category growth trends 2006-2011
Figure 4: Electricals specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer ending 1996-2011
Figure 5: Total electricals specialists store numbers (000) 1996-2011
Figure 6: Space growth for electricals specialists 1996-2011
Figure 7: Electricals specialists sales densities at current prices 1996-2011
Figure 8: Electricals specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 9: Electricals channels of distribution 2005, 2006 & 2011
Figure 10: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2011 on 2006
Figure 11: Key electricals retailers change in market shares 2001-2006e
Figure 12: Electricals expenditure growth rates 1996-01, 2001-06 & 2006-11
Figure 13: Electricals expenditure as a % of total spending 1996-2011
Figure 14: Electricals expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 15: Brown goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 16: Brown goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 17: Audio-visual equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 18: Audio-visual equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 19: Games consoles and software expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 20: Games consoles and software expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 21: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 22: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 23: White goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 24: White goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 25: Major household appliances expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 26: Major household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 27: Minor household appliances expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 28: Minor household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 29: Grey goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 30: Grey goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 31: Information processing equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 32: Information processing equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 33: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1996-2011
Figure 34: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 35: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 36: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1996-2011
Figure 37: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1996-2011
Figure 38: UK employment 1996-2011
Figure 39: UK unemployment 1996-2011
Figure 40: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1996-2011
Figure 41: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1996-2011
Figure 42: UK average base rates 1997-2007e
Figure 43: Savings ratio 1996-2011
Figure 44: Growth in consumer debt 1996-2011
Figure 45: FTSE 100 Index 1996-2011
Figure 46: UK house price inflation 1996-2011
Figure 47: Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1996-2011
Figure 48: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1996-2011
Figure 49: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1996-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 50: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1995-2005 and forecast to 2011
Figure 51: Retail spending by location 2006 and 2011
Figure 52: Share of turnover by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Figure 53: % share of store numbers by location 1996, 2001, 2006 & 2011
Figure 54: Our forecasting methodology
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