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IPTV The Telco's New Light Sword
Information Gatekeepers Inc, June 2005
While FTTP has been the biggest telecommunications story for the last couple of years (first as a potential and now in deployment) next year's story is going to be that the RBOCs are moving into residential video delivery in a big way. This was very clear in this year's SuperComm in Chicago. Everyone there seemed to be selling IPTV or something associated with it. After so much testing, learning, false starts and failures, the RBOCs are really committing to a massive effort to compete on a network basis in residential video delivery! This report will highlight the video effort of the RBOCs; it includes an extensive description of IPTV and its associated technologies; it will provide an in-depth review of the various last mile architectures, and the approaches to video delivery; as well as provide extensive forecasts for subscribers, penetration rates, costs, and revenues from these services.
The RBOCs, all four to greater or lesser extents, are now in the process of rolling out FTTP (fully detailed in our report “FTTP – Going Strong in 2005.”) Verizon has a monumental effort underway, and the others are in various stages (lab tests, minor deployments or preparing massive rollouts) of deployment. The RBOCs are simultaneously on the verge of actually moving into the video business in a massive way. At least two of the four RBOCs are expected to be in the residential TV delivery business before the end of 2005 and they should become major residential video players in 2006. Several relatively new technologies will be deployed in their entries into that business, and the RBOCs will use just about every imaginable combination of those technologies to achieve their objectives. This report covers all details of these video delivery activities with an emphasis on the latest of these technologies - Internet Protocol Television (IPTV.)
IPTV is the heart of the RBOC plans to attack the video market. IPTV is not just a different way to deliver TV (it is, of course, that also) but it has the potential to be the basis of a whole new suite of services.
Some of these could include:
- Four high-quality TV streams, including high-definition TV.
- Instant channel-changing.
- Customizable channel line-ups.
- Video on demand.
- Multimedia interactive program guides.
- Event notifications and remote access to IPG (Individualized Program Guide) and digital video-recording function. The ability to alert a customer of upcoming favourite shows, or Caller ID and instant messaging right on their TV screens.
- Tuner-less picture-in-picture functionality.
- Photos shared from a networked computer and played back through the TV.
- DVR (digital video recorder) functionality on multiple TV sets.
- Multimedia and interactive video.
- Sharing family videos.
- 3-D gaming.
- Setting camera angles for sporting events.
While some of these are not completely new, most are, and together they are a very impressive list. As noted, they could form the basis for a whole new video service.
This report will consider:
- The details of the various options for deploying video – FTTX, broadcast video and IPTV.
- The details of the RBOC PON.
- Details of the various RBOC access architectures, and how video fits into these architectures.
- The current deployment scenarios of the RBOCs.
- The specific plans of each of the RBOCs.
- Forecasts for deployment scenarios for each of the RBOCs.
- Forecasts of RBOC IPTV subscribers, penetration rates, costs, and revenues from IPTV.
- Market projections for vendors of the equipment and software.
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
APPROACHES FOR ACCESS ARCHITECTURE
Fiber to the "X"
Fiber to the Neighborhood (FTTN)
Fiber to the Node (FTTN)
Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
Passive Optical Networks
Status of PON
Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
Types of PONs
RBOC RFP PON
APPROACHES TO VIDEO DELIVERY
IPTV Global Architecture
Super Hub Office
Video Hub Office
IPTV Distribution and Access Architecture
IPTV Channel Selection
RBOC VIDEO PLANS
Verizon - Physical Description
Verizon – Video Services
SBC – Physical Description
SBC – Lightspeed Services
BellSouth – Physical Description
IPTV MARKET ANALYSIS
Forecast for RBOC Video Implementation – the Scenario
RBOC IPTV Subscribers Summary
RBOC IPTV Subscribers
Long-haul Equipment and Specific Entities for Video
Summary of Video Annual Costs
RBOC IPTV REVENUES
Summary of Vendors
Transmission and Switching Vendors
Detailed Listing of Vendors
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Fiber to the 'X' Varieties
Figure 2, Chart of Various xDSL Technologies
Figure 3, Fiber to the Neighborhood
Figure 4, Fiber to the Node
Figure 5, Fiber to the Curb
Figure 6, PON Basic Arrangement
Figure 7, RFP PON - Central Office Portion
Figure 8, RFP PON - Outside Plant Portion
Figure 9, RFP PON Service Assignments
Figure 10, Broadcast TV on BPONs
Figure 11, Broadcast TV
Figure 12, IPTV General Architecture
Figure 13, IPTV Global Architecture
Figure 14, IPTV Access Architecture - xDSL
Figure 15, FTTP Architecture for IPTV
Figure 16, IPTV Hub Office Architecture
Figure 17, IPTV Channel Selection
Figure 18, Verizon IPTV Subscribers
Figure 19, SBC IPTV Subscribers
Figure 20, BellSouth IPTV Subscribers
Figure 21, Qwest IPTV Subscribers
Figure 22, Video Network Penetration by RBOC
Figure 23, Penetration Rate of HHs Passed Vs. Total US Homes
Figure 24, Penetration Rate of RBOC Video Services
Figure 25, RBOC HH Passed Vs. Video Services
Figure 26, RBOC Cumulative IPTV Services
Figure 27, Long-haul and Network Office Entities Costs
Figure 28, Software Costs
Figure 29, Integration Costs
Figure 30, Cutover Costs
Figure 31, Video Implementation Costs - All Components
Figure 32, Cutover Costs vs. Network Costs
Figure 33, RBOC IPTV Revenues
Figure 34, Summary of Access Vendors
Figure 35, Table of IPTV Software Vendors
Figure 36, Transmission and Switching Vendors
Figure 37, Component Vendors Forecasts of RBOC IPTV subscribers, penetration rates, costs, and revenues from IPTV.
Market projections for vendors of the equipment and software.
Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
Amino Technologies plc
GENONE3 TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
HAMMERHEAD SYSTEMS, INC.
HUMAX USA Inc.
Kreatel Communications AB
O-Net Communications Ltd
Oplink Communications, Inc.
OSAKI ELECTRIC CO., LTD.
Quantum Bridge Communications
Salira Optical Network Systems
Vinci Systems, Inc.
Worldwide Packets, Inc
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